ScoreProb
III Liga - Group 3 Poland Group III - 11 2026

Rakow II vs Kluczbork

Rakow II Home · Elo 1,465
LIVE · 75'
0–0
Half time 0–0
Wed 4 Nov · 11:30 UTC
Kluczbork Away · Elo 1,546
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Pick published 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff
Pre-match probability, unchanged Model pick: Kluczbork win
Rakow II win
24.8%
Draw
23.0%
Kluczbork winPick
52.2%

Timeline

Newest at the bottom

Nothing has happened yet. Goals, cards and substitutions appear here as they happen.

Lineups

Published about an hour before kickoff

Lineups are not out yet. They usually appear about an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. The prediction does not use lineups.

Live stats

Rakow II left, Kluczbork right

Match statistics are not provided for this competition by our data source.

Our pre-match picks, right now

Updates with every goal. There is no in-play model: this is the pre-match pick against the live score.

Match resultPick: Kluczbork win · 52.2%
Level: 0–0
Both teams to scorePick: Yes · 58.6%
Needs both teams to score
Over 2.5 goalsPick: Over · 68.9%
Needs 3 more goals
The pre-match numbers never change after kickoff. That is what makes the record verifiable.

Both teams to score

Yes58.6%
No41.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.568.9%
Under 2.531.1%

How much we know

Rakow II history7 matches
Kluczbork history62 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Life of this match

Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
  3. Kickoff
    4 Nov · 11:30 UTC
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

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How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Kluczbork are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Kluczbork are rated 81 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,546 against 1,465. On rating alone Kluczbork would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Kluczbork score more

    1.57 goals a game over 7 matches for Rakow II, against 2.03 over 62 for Kluczbork.

  • Kluczbork concede fewer

    Rakow II concede 2.71 a game, Kluczbork 1.11.

  • Rakow II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    86% of Rakow II matches, against 58% for Kluczbork. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Rakow II
Kluczbork
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1465.0
ELO
1546.3
7
ELO · Matches
62
1465.0
Current Team ELO
1546.3
1546.3
Current Opponent ELO
1465.0
-81.32
Current ELO Difference
81.32
0.39
Expected score
0.61
7
History Matches
62
-0.26
Residual Mean
0.04
43.20
Overperformance
52.66
-0.26
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
1.20
1.40
Goals for per game
0.80
3.00
Goals against per game
1.40
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
7
Matches
10
0.57
PPG
1.80
1.57
Goals for per game
2.20
2.71
Goals against per game
1.20
14.3%
Win rate
60.0%
1.57
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.20
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.09
2.71
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.39
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.72
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
1.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.65
Overall performance9 signals
90
7
Matches
62
0.57
PPG
1.73
14.3%
Win rate
53.2%
14.3%
Draw rate
12.9%
71.4%
Loss rate
33.9%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
83.9%
85.7%
Over 2.5 rate
58.1%
71.4%
Over 3.5 rate
35.5%
1.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.14
Venue performance10 signals
100
3
Matches
31
1.00
PPG
1.42
33.3%
Win rate
45.2%
0.0%
Draw rate
6.5%
66.7%
Loss rate
48.4%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
77.4%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
58.1%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
35.5%
2.05
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.07
3
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.57
Goals for per game
2.03
71.4%
Scoring rate
82.3%
71.4%
BTTS rate
50.0%
1.33
Goals for per game
1.71
66.7%
Scoring rate
74.2%
66.7%
BTTS rate
48.4%
1.40
Goals for per game
0.80
60.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
7
History Matches
62
1.57
Goals Mean
2.03
1.40
Goals Std
1.62
71.4%
Scored 1+ rate
82.3%
42.9%
Scored 2+ rate
53.2%
28.6%
Scored 3+ rate
37.1%
1.33
Venue Goals Mean
1.71
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.71
Goals against per game
1.11
100.0%
Conceding rate
67.7%
2.00
Goals against per game
1.35
100.0%
Conceding rate
74.2%
3.00
Goals against per game
1.40
100.0%
Conceding rate
80.0%
7
History Matches
62
2.71
Conceded Mean
1.11
1.39
Conceded Std
1.11
71.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.8%
57.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.9%
2.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.35
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.3%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
17.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
40.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.3%
28.6%
Failed-to-score rate
17.7%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
25.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
32.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
7
History Matches
62
0.72
Result entropy
0.88
1.64
Goal Difference Std
2.14
27.52
Stability score
12.02
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
7
Eligible Matches
60
1
Lead Matches
19
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
94.7%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.96
4
Trailing Matches
13
25.0%
Non-loss rate
38.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
15.4%
Goal timing5 signals
50
7
Halftime Coverage Matches
60
0.43
First Half Goals For Mean
0.72
1.00
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
1.14
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.30
1.71
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
72.94
Rest days
73.85
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
4
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
3
Normal Rest History Matches
33
0.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.58
3
Long Rest History Matches
24
0.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.92
Competition & season17 signals
170
5
Matches
5
0.20
PPG
1.20
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
80.0%
Loss rate
60.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
80.0%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.36
5
Current Competition Matches
5
0.20
Current Competition PPG
1.20
-1.60
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.60
2
Competition Season Count
6
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
—
Portability PPG Std
0.52
—
Portability PPG Range
1.20
—
Portability Score
49.13
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
7
Clean History Matches
62
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scorePortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-81.32
PPG-1.15
GF-0.46
GA1.60
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.42
PPG-1.00
PPG-1.23
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-55
Clean-sheet rate-0.32
Failed-to-score rate10.8%
History Matches-28
Clean-sheet rate-0.26
Failed-to-score rate7.5%
History Matches-55
Goals Mean-0.46
Goals Std-0.22
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Goals Mean-0.38
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.63
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.69
History Matches-55
Conceded Mean1.60
Conceded Std0.28
Clean-sheet rate-0.32
Conceded 2+ rate45.6%
Conceded 3+ rate44.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.65
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.51
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.51
History Matches-55
Result entropy-0.15
Goal Difference Std-0.50
Stability score15.50
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.11
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.00
Eligible Matches-53
Lead Matches-18
Lead Win Rate5.3%
Lead Points Retention0.04
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate-0.13
Trailing Win Rate-0.15
Halftime Coverage Matches-53
First Half Goals For Mean-0.29
First Half Goals Against Mean0.48
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals Against Mean1.13
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.00
Competition Season Count-4
Eligible Competition Season Count-3
Rest days-0.92
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest History Matches-30
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.58
Long Rest History Matches-21
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.58
Current Team ELO-81.32
Current Opponent ELO81.32
Current ELO Difference-162.6
Expected score-0.23
History Matches-55
Residual Mean-0.30
Overperformance-9.45
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.30

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Rakow II

L
Rakow II1–3ROW Rybnik30 Oct · home
Pick: ROW Rybnik 55% · hit
L
Karkonosze Jelenia Góra3–1Rakow II24 Oct · away
Pick: Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 75% · hit
W
Rakow II3–2Warta Gorzów17 Oct · home
Pick: Warta Gorzów 54% · missed
L
Zaglebie Sosnowiec1–0Rakow II14 Oct · away
Pick: Zaglebie Sosnowiec 70% · hit
D
Rakow II0–0Goczałkowice Zdrój29 Aug · home
Pick: Goczałkowice Zdrój 40% · missed

Kluczbork

D
Kluczbork2–2Karkonosze Jelenia Góra30 Oct · home
Pick: Karkonosze Jelenia Góra 40% · missed
W
Warta Gorzów0–2Kluczbork24 Oct · away
Pick: Warta Gorzów 45% · missed
W
Kluczbork2–0Miedź Legnica II17 Oct · home
Pick: Kluczbork 53% · hit
L
Kluczbork1–2Lechia Gdansk1 Sep · home
Pick: Kluczbork 48% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Rakow II and Kluczbork meet in III Liga - Group 3 on Wednesday 4 November 2026, kickoff 11:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Rakow II win 24.8%, draw 23.0%, Kluczbork win 52.2%. The pick is Kluczbork win. Over 2.5 goals: 68.9%. Both teams to score: 58.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.