Real Cartagena vs Quindio
Real Cartagena
Full time
2–3
Half time 0–2
Wed 4 Nov · 01:30 UTC
Quindio
What we said before kickoff Result: Quindio win
Real Cartagena winPick
41.9%
Draw
28.1%
Quindio win Result
30.1%
How our picks did
Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.
Match result
Our pickReal Cartagena win · 41.9%
What happenedQuindio win · we gave it 30.1%
Missed Over 2.5 goals
Our pickOver · 50.9%
What happenedOver · 5 goals
Hit Both teams to score
Our pickYes · 53.8%
What happenedYes · 2–3
Hit How surprising was it?
Result: Quindio win. In our numbers it ranked second of the three.
30%
chance we gave it0%50%100%
1 in 3.3
on average A pick at 42% is expected to miss about 6 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record
Timeline
Newest at the bottom
9'
GoalJ. Lloreda
23'
Yellow cardY. Torres
Yellow card
39' 45'
GoalJ. Ibarguen
SubstitutionE. Lopez off · J. Pineda on
46' SubstitutionJ. P. Gallego off · J. Barrera on
46' SubstitutionL. Taffur off · M. Manotas on
46' GoalJ. Aleman
49' 52'
SubstitutionA. Alvarez off · S. Orozco on
63'
SubstitutionJ. Ibarguen off · Javier Reina on
SubstitutionD. Pino off · L. Guevara on
68' GoalF. Montero
70' 76'
GoalJ. Lloreda
SubstitutionJ. Aleman off · A. Melendez on
84' 90+3'
Yellow cardJ. S. Lopez
Lineups
Published about an hour before kickoff
Lineups are not out yet. They usually appear about an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. The prediction does not use lineups.
Match stats
Real Cartagena left, Quindio right
Match statistics are not provided for this competition by our data source.
Both teams to score
Yes53.8%
No46.2%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.550.9%
Under 2.549.1%
How much we know
Real Cartagena history55 matches
Quindio history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your calls on this match
Made on this device before kickoff, compared with the result.
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 3 d 17 h ahead31 Oct · 07:49 UTC
- Re-published 8 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 01:30 UTC
- Full time: 2–3Two of our three picks hit
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.
Why Real Cartagena are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,555 against 1,537. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
Real Cartagena score more
1.65 goals a game over 55 matches for Real Cartagena, against 1.18 over 57 for Quindio.
-
Defences are close
Real Cartagena concede 1.07 a game, Quindio 1.14.
-
Real Cartagena games more often go over 2.5 goals
56% of Real Cartagena matches, against 44% for Quindio. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Real Cartagena
Quindio
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1555.4
ELO
1537.4
55
ELO · Matches
57
1555.4
Current Team ELO
1537.4
1537.4
Current Opponent ELO
1555.4
17.97
Current ELO Difference
-17.97
0.53
Expected score
0.47
55
History Matches
57
0.05
Residual Mean
0.04
53.62
Overperformance
52.79
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.60
2.60
Goals for per game
1.00
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.40
2.10
Goals for per game
0.80
1.40
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.80
1.81
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.60
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
0.66
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.60
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
0.89
Overall performance9 signals 90
55
Matches
57
1.71
PPG
1.49
45.5%
Win rate
40.4%
34.5%
Draw rate
28.1%
20.0%
Loss rate
31.6%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
56.4%
Over 2.5 rate
43.9%
30.9%
Over 3.5 rate
19.3%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.56
Venue performance10 signals 100
28
Matches
27
1.96
PPG
1.22
57.1%
Win rate
33.3%
25.0%
Draw rate
22.2%
17.9%
Loss rate
44.4%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
70.4%
67.9%
Over 2.5 rate
37.0%
42.9%
Over 3.5 rate
18.5%
1.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
28
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.65
Goals for per game
1.18
80.0%
Scoring rate
71.9%
60.0%
BTTS rate
49.1%
2.07
Goals for per game
0.85
85.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
60.7%
BTTS rate
40.7%
1.70
Goals for per game
1.04
82.6%
Scoring rate
70.8%
69.6%
BTTS rate
37.5%
55
History Matches
57
1.65
Goals Mean
1.18
1.39
Goals Std
1.09
80.0%
Scored 1+ rate
71.9%
47.3%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
20.0%
Scored 3+ rate
5.3%
2.07
Venue Goals Mean
0.85
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.07
Goals against per game
1.14
67.3%
Conceding rate
68.4%
1.04
Goals against per game
1.37
64.3%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.22
Goals against per game
0.63
78.3%
Conceding rate
50.0%
55
History Matches
57
1.07
Conceded Mean
1.14
0.99
Conceded Std
1.05
27.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
12.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.0%
1.04
Venue Conceded Mean
1.37
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
32.7%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.1%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
21.7%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
29.2%
32.7%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
28.1%
35.7%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
32.7%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
55
History Matches
57
0.95
Result entropy
0.99
1.80
Goal Difference Std
1.56
4.66
Stability score
1.07
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
55
Eligible Matches
57
20
Lead Matches
19
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
68.4%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.74
10
Trailing Matches
11
30.0%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
9.1%
Goal timing5 signals 50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.91
First Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
0.75
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.58
0.51
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
71.15
Rest days
72.10
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
24
Normal Rest History Matches
39
1.67
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.33
29
Long Rest History Matches
16
1.76
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.88
Competition & season17 signals 170
23
Matches
24
1.74
PPG
1.79
47.8%
Win rate
50.0%
30.4%
Draw rate
29.2%
21.7%
Loss rate
20.8%
78.3%
Over 1.5 rate
45.8%
56.5%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
30.4%
Over 3.5 rate
4.2%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
23
Current Competition Matches
24
1.74
Current Competition PPG
1.79
0.48
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.42
4
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.02
Portability PPG Std
0.23
0.05
Portability PPG Range
0.56
95.55
Portability Score
68.04
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
55
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO17.97
PPG0.22
GF0.48
GA-0.07
PPG-0.05
PPG0.74
PPG0.00
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate1.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate2.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.48
Goals Std0.30
Scored 1+ rate8.1%
Scored 2+ rate13.9%
Scored 3+ rate14.7%
Venue Goals Mean1.22
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std1.21
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean-0.07
Conceded Std-0.06
Clean-sheet rate1.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate5.7%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.33
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.06
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std0.24
Stability score3.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.21
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate11.6%
Lead Points Retention0.11
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate2.7%
Trailing Win Rate-0.09
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.05
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.06
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.21
Portability PPG Range-0.51
Portability Score27.51
Rest days-0.96
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match3.00
Normal Rest History Matches-15
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.33
Long Rest History Matches13
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.12
Current Team ELO17.97
Current Opponent ELO-17.97
Current ELO Difference35.93
Expected score0.05
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.83
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.00
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Real Cartagena
D
Barranquilla1–1Real Cartagena24 Oct · away
Pick: Real Cartagena 41% · missed W
Real Cartagena3–0Patriotas19 Oct · home
Pick: Real Cartagena 53% · hit D
Quindio1–1Real Cartagena16 Oct · away
Pick: Quindio 45% · missed L
Real Cartagena2–3Popayan4 Oct · home
Pick: Real Cartagena 52% · missed L
Real Cartagena0–3Tigres FC29 Aug · home
Pick: Real Cartagena 53% · missed Quindio
W
Quindio2–0Tigres FC24 Oct · home
Pick: Quindio 53% · hit W
Depor FC0–1Quindio20 Oct · away
Pick: Quindio 61% · hit D
Quindio1–1Real Cartagena16 Oct · home
Pick: Quindio 45% · missed W
Orsomarso0–1Quindio6 Oct · away
Pick: Orsomarso 37% · missed W
Union Magdalena0–2Quindio29 Aug · away
Pick: Union Magdalena 43% · missed Match report
Real Cartagena and Quindio finished 2–3 in Primera B on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 0–2 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 07:49 UTC, before kickoff: Real Cartagena win 41.9%, draw 28.1%, Quindio win 30.1%. Two of the three picks hit.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.