ScoreProb
I-League India Round 2 2026

Real Kashmir vs Sreenidi Deccan

Real Kashmir Home · Elo 1,506
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sreenidi Deccan Away · Elo 1,544
TRC Polo Synthetic Turf Ground, Srinagar Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sreenidi Deccan win
Real Kashmir win
29.7%
Draw
27.6%
Sreenidi Deccan winPick
42.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.0%
No48.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.552.6%
Under 2.547.4%

How much we know

Real Kashmir history25 matches
Sreenidi Deccan history27 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Sreenidi Deccan are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Sreenidi Deccan are rated 38 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,544 against 1,506. On rating alone Sreenidi Deccan would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Real Kashmir score more

    1.56 goals a game over 25 matches for Real Kashmir, against 1.26 over 27 for Sreenidi Deccan.

  • Sreenidi Deccan concede fewer

    Real Kashmir concede 1.36 a game, Sreenidi Deccan 1.19.

  • Real Kashmir games more often go over 2.5 goals

    60% of Real Kashmir matches, against 48% for Sreenidi Deccan. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Real Kashmir
Sreenidi Deccan@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1506.1
ELO
1544.4
25
ELO · Matches
27
1506.1
Current Team ELO
1544.4
1544.4
Current Opponent ELO
1506.1
-38.22
Current ELO Difference
38.22
0.45
Expected score
0.55
25
History Matches
27
0.01
Residual Mean
0.08
50.42
Overperformance
54.50
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.18
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
2.20
2.60
Goals for per game
1.60
1.20
Goals against per game
1.00
80.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.90
1.70
Goals for per game
1.40
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.73
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.45
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.02
Overall performance9 signals
90
25
Matches
27
1.52
PPG
1.59
44.0%
Win rate
40.7%
20.0%
Draw rate
37.0%
36.0%
Loss rate
22.2%
84.0%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
48.1%
28.0%
Over 3.5 rate
18.5%
1.79
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
Venue performance10 signals
100
12
Matches
14
1.83
PPG
1.71
58.3%
Win rate
50.0%
8.3%
Draw rate
21.4%
33.3%
Loss rate
28.6%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
8.3%
Over 3.5 rate
14.3%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.44
12
History Matches
14
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.56
Goals for per game
1.26
84.0%
Scoring rate
77.8%
60.0%
BTTS rate
63.0%
1.75
Goals for per game
1.14
83.3%
Scoring rate
78.6%
41.7%
BTTS rate
57.1%
25
History Matches
27
1.56
Goals Mean
1.26
1.24
Goals Std
0.93
84.0%
Scored 1+ rate
77.8%
48.0%
Scored 2+ rate
37.0%
12.0%
Scored 3+ rate
11.1%
1.75
Venue Goals Mean
1.14
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.36
Goals against per game
1.19
76.0%
Conceding rate
81.5%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.21
58.3%
Conceding rate
78.6%
25
History Matches
27
1.36
Conceded Mean
1.19
1.09
Conceded Std
0.90
40.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.9%
16.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.4%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
1.21
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.5%
16.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.5%
16.0%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
21.4%
16.7%
Failed-to-score rate
21.4%
24.0%
Clean-sheet rate
18.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
25
History Matches
27
0.96
Result entropy
0.97
1.79
Goal Difference Std
1.41
4.34
Stability score
2.79
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
25
Eligible Matches
27
9
Lead Matches
8
88.9%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.83
6
Trailing Matches
10
16.7%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
25
Halftime Coverage Matches
27
0.76
First Half Goals For Mean
0.56
0.68
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
0.80
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
180.0
Rest days
169.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
14
Normal Rest History Matches
19
1.64
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.79
9
Long Rest History Matches
6
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.17
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.34
Portability PPG Std
0.22
0.68
Portability PPG Range
0.44
59.54
Portability Score
69.42
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
25
Clean History Matches
27
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO-38.22
PPG-0.07
GF0.30
GA0.17
PPG0.12
PPG0.20
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate5.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate20.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.30
Goals Std0.31
Scored 1+ rate6.2%
Scored 2+ rate11.0%
Scored 3+ rate0.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.61
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.82
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.17
Conceded Std0.19
Clean-sheet rate5.5%
Conceded 2+ rate14.1%
Conceded 3+ rate8.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.21
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.47
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.38
Stability score1.55
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.03
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate13.9%
Lead Points Retention0.09
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate-0.33
Trailing Win Rate-0.10
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.20
First Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.12
Portability PPG Range0.24
Portability Score-9.88
Rest days11.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match2.00
Normal Rest History Matches-5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.15
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.17
Current Team ELO-38.22
Current Opponent ELO38.22
Current ELO Difference-76.43
Expected score-0.11
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.07
Overperformance-4.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.26

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Real Kashmir

L
Real Kashmir1–3Nagaland United30 Oct · home
Pick: Real Kashmir 61% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Sreenidi Deccan

W
Rajasthan United0–1Sreenidi Deccan1 Nov · away
Pick: Rajasthan United 38% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Real Kashmir and Sreenidi Deccan meet in I-League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. The match is played at TRC Polo Synthetic Turf Ground, Srinagar. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Real Kashmir win 29.7%, draw 27.6%, Sreenidi Deccan win 42.6%. The pick is Sreenidi Deccan win. Over 2.5 goals: 52.6%. Both teams to score: 52.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.