ScoreProb
Major League Soccer United States Round 34 2026

Real Salt Lake vs Los Angeles Galaxy

Real Salt Lake Home · Elo 1,534
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Los Angeles Galaxy Away · Elo 1,490
America First Field, Sandy Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Real Salt Lake win
Real Salt Lake winPick
50.3%
Draw
23.8%
Los Angeles Galaxy win
26.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.3%
No41.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.0%
Under 2.539.0%

How much we know

Real Salt Lake history64 matches
Los Angeles Galaxy history78 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 15 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 00:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Real Salt Lake are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Real Salt Lake are rated 44 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,534 against 1,490. On rating alone Real Salt Lake would be expected to take 56% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.48 goals a game over 64 matches for Real Salt Lake, against 1.50 over 78 for Los Angeles Galaxy.

  • Defences are close

    Real Salt Lake concede 1.42 a game, Los Angeles Galaxy 1.54.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    58% of Real Salt Lake matches, against 62% for Los Angeles Galaxy. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Real Salt Lake
Los Angeles Galaxy
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1534.3
ELO
1490.4
64
ELO · Matches
78
1534.3
Current Team ELO
1490.4
1490.4
Current Opponent ELO
1534.3
43.87
Current ELO Difference
-43.87
0.56
Expected score
0.44
64
History Matches
78
0.03
Residual Mean
0.02
52.51
Overperformance
51.87
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
0.60
2.00
Goals for per game
0.80
0.80
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.00
1.80
Goals for per game
0.90
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
1.25
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.70
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.91
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.43
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
78
1.44
PPG
1.21
40.6%
Win rate
29.5%
21.9%
Draw rate
32.1%
37.5%
Loss rate
38.5%
82.8%
Over 1.5 rate
87.2%
57.8%
Over 2.5 rate
61.5%
32.8%
Over 3.5 rate
32.1%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
Venue performance10 signals
100
34
Matches
27
1.94
PPG
0.78
61.8%
Win rate
11.1%
8.8%
Draw rate
44.4%
29.4%
Loss rate
44.4%
79.4%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
58.8%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
32.4%
Over 3.5 rate
37.0%
1.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.07
34
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.48
Goals for per game
1.50
81.3%
Scoring rate
78.2%
62.5%
BTTS rate
64.1%
1.76
Goals for per game
1.30
82.4%
Scoring rate
81.5%
50.0%
BTTS rate
77.8%
1.65
Goals for per game
1.21
88.2%
Scoring rate
84.2%
76.5%
BTTS rate
73.7%
64
History Matches
78
1.48
Goals Mean
1.50
1.09
Goals Std
1.16
81.3%
Scored 1+ rate
78.2%
43.8%
Scored 2+ rate
47.4%
18.8%
Scored 3+ rate
16.7%
1.76
Venue Goals Mean
1.30
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.42
Goals against per game
1.54
79.7%
Conceding rate
82.1%
1.09
Goals against per game
1.81
64.7%
Conceding rate
96.3%
1.41
Goals against per game
1.53
88.2%
Conceding rate
84.2%
64
History Matches
78
1.42
Conceded Mean
1.54
1.09
Conceded Std
1.11
40.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.2%
17.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.5%
1.09
Venue Conceded Mean
1.81
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.3%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
21.8%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
3.7%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
18.5%
11.8%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
11.8%
Failed-to-score rate
15.8%
20.3%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
21.8%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
3.7%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
18.5%
20.3%
Clean-sheet rate
17.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
78
0.97
Result entropy
0.99
1.66
Goal Difference Std
1.69
2.95
Stability score
0.57
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
63
Eligible Matches
73
28
Lead Matches
22
71.4%
Lead Win Rate
77.3%
0.77
Lead Points Retention
0.82
15
Trailing Matches
26
13.3%
Non-loss rate
26.9%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
63
Halftime Coverage Matches
73
0.84
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.57
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.74
0.62
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.02
Rest days
77.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
8
Short Rest History Matches
12
1.63
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.25
34
Normal Rest History Matches
44
1.44
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.16
21
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.38
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.33
Competition & season17 signals
170
17
Matches
19
1.59
PPG
1.05
47.1%
Win rate
21.1%
17.6%
Draw rate
42.1%
35.3%
Loss rate
36.8%
94.1%
Over 1.5 rate
89.5%
64.7%
Over 2.5 rate
57.9%
29.4%
Over 3.5 rate
26.3%
1.52
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.49
17
Current Competition Matches
19
1.59
Current Competition PPG
1.05
0.24
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.32
8
Competition Season Count
8
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.41
Portability PPG Std
0.55
1.15
Portability PPG Range
1.29
54.75
Portability Score
47.60
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
78
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO43.87
PPG0.23
GF-0.02
GA-0.12
PPG0.54
PPG1.16
PPG1.00
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-14
Clean-sheet rate2.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate31.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches-14
Goals Mean-0.02
Goals Std-0.07
Scored 1+ rate3.0%
Scored 2+ rate-0.04
Scored 3+ rate2.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.47
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std0.55
History Matches-14
Conceded Mean-0.12
Conceded Std-0.02
Clean-sheet rate2.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.73
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.33
History Matches-14
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.03
Stability score2.37
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.48
Eligible Matches-10
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate-0.06
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches-11
Non-loss rate-0.14
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-10
First Half Goals For Mean0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.02
Current Competition Matches-2
Current Competition PPG0.54
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.55
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.14
Portability PPG Range-0.14
Portability Score7.15
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Short Rest Points Per Match0.38
Normal Rest History Matches-10
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.28
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.05
Current Team ELO43.87
Current Opponent ELO-43.87
Current ELO Difference87.74
Expected score0.13
History Matches-14
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance0.64
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Real Salt Lake

L
San Jose Earthquakes2–1Real Salt Lake31 Oct · away
Pick: Real Salt Lake 40% · missed
W
Austin1–2Real Salt Lake29 Oct · away
Pick: Real Salt Lake 38% · hit
W
Sporting Kansas City1–3Real Salt Lake18 Oct · away
Pick: Real Salt Lake 60% · hit
D
Real Salt Lake1–1San Jose Earthquakes15 Oct · home
Pick: Real Salt Lake 54% · missed
L
Colorado Rapids1–0Real Salt Lake30 Aug · away
Pick: Colorado Rapids 43% · hit

Los Angeles Galaxy

W
Los Angeles Galaxy4–1Austin31 Oct · home
Pick: Los Angeles Galaxy 57% · hit
D
Los Angeles FC2–2Los Angeles Galaxy26 Oct · away
Pick: Los Angeles FC 54% · missed
D
Los Angeles Galaxy2–2San Diego18 Oct · home
Pick: San Diego 43% · missed
W
Los Angeles Galaxy2–0Portland Timbers15 Oct · home
Pick: Los Angeles Galaxy 45% · hit
L
San Diego3–1Los Angeles Galaxy30 Aug · away
Pick: San Diego 50% · hit

About this match

Real Salt Lake and Los Angeles Galaxy meet in Major League Soccer on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 00:00 UTC. The match is played at America First Field, Sandy. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Real Salt Lake win 50.3%, draw 23.8%, Los Angeles Galaxy win 26.0%. The pick is Real Salt Lake win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.0%. Both teams to score: 58.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.