ScoreProb
Campionato Primavera - 2 Italy Round 8 2026

Reggiana U19 vs Venezia U19

Reggiana U19 Home · Elo 1,519
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Venezia U19 Away · Elo 1,427
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Reggiana U19 win
Reggiana U19 winPick
47.4%
Draw
22.8%
Venezia U19 win
29.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.7%
No41.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.1%
Under 2.538.9%

How much we know

Reggiana U19 history48 matches
Venezia U19 history47 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Reggiana U19 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Reggiana U19 are rated 92 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,519 against 1,427. On rating alone Reggiana U19 would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Reggiana U19 score more

    1.60 goals a game over 48 matches for Reggiana U19, against 1.19 over 47 for Venezia U19.

  • Reggiana U19 concede fewer

    Reggiana U19 concede 1.46 a game, Venezia U19 1.83.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    58% of Reggiana U19 matches, against 53% for Venezia U19. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Reggiana U19
Venezia U19
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1518.8
ELO
1426.7
48
ELO · Matches
47
1518.8
Current Team ELO
1426.7
1426.7
Current Opponent ELO
1518.8
92.19
Current ELO Difference
-92.19
0.63
Expected score
0.37
48
History Matches
47
0.02
Residual Mean
-0.07
51.11
Overperformance
44.77
0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.40
2.20
Goals for per game
1.20
1.40
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
0.80
2.70
Goals for per game
1.00
1.50
Goals against per game
1.30
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
2.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.85
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.26
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.27
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.68
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
47
1.33
PPG
1.04
33.3%
Win rate
25.5%
33.3%
Draw rate
27.7%
33.3%
Loss rate
46.8%
81.3%
Over 1.5 rate
76.6%
58.3%
Over 2.5 rate
53.2%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
40.4%
1.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.93
Venue performance10 signals
100
23
Matches
23
1.43
PPG
0.83
34.8%
Win rate
17.4%
39.1%
Draw rate
30.4%
26.1%
Loss rate
52.2%
78.3%
Over 1.5 rate
78.3%
56.5%
Over 2.5 rate
52.2%
39.1%
Over 3.5 rate
43.5%
1.46
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.94
23
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.60
Goals for per game
1.19
79.2%
Scoring rate
72.3%
66.7%
BTTS rate
59.6%
1.70
Goals for per game
1.04
82.6%
Scoring rate
69.6%
69.6%
BTTS rate
56.5%
48
History Matches
47
1.60
Goals Mean
1.19
1.38
Goals Std
1.08
79.2%
Scored 1+ rate
72.3%
41.7%
Scored 2+ rate
31.9%
22.9%
Scored 3+ rate
8.5%
1.70
Venue Goals Mean
1.04
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.46
Goals against per game
1.83
81.3%
Conceding rate
80.9%
1.39
Goals against per game
2.00
82.6%
Conceding rate
82.6%
48
History Matches
47
1.46
Conceded Mean
1.83
1.04
Conceded Std
1.52
47.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.8%
12.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
29.8%
1.39
Venue Conceded Mean
2.00
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
19.1%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
27.7%
17.4%
Clean-sheet rate
17.4%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
19.1%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
27.7%
17.4%
Clean-sheet rate
17.4%
17.4%
Failed-to-score rate
30.4%
18.8%
Clean-sheet rate
19.1%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
47
1.00
Result entropy
0.96
1.68
Goal Difference Std
1.93
0.00
Stability score
3.57
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
46
Eligible Matches
44
13
Lead Matches
9
92.3%
Lead Win Rate
55.6%
0.95
Lead Points Retention
0.70
15
Trailing Matches
16
33.3%
Non-loss rate
18.8%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
12.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
46
Halftime Coverage Matches
44
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.70
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.89
0.98
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.66
0.76
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.95
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
175.0
Rest days
76.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
27
Normal Rest History Matches
27
1.67
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.15
20
Long Rest History Matches
19
0.95
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.95
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.18
Portability PPG Std
0.14
0.36
Portability PPG Range
0.28
73.59
Portability Score
78.20
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
47
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO92.19
PPG0.29
GF0.41
GA-0.37
PPG0.61
PPG0.00
PPG1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.41
Goals Std0.30
Scored 1+ rate6.8%
Scored 2+ rate9.8%
Scored 3+ rate14.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.65
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.58
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.37
Conceded Std-0.48
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Conceded 2+ rate1.1%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.17
Venue Conceded Mean-0.61
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.77
History Matches1
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.25
Stability score-3.57
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.41
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate36.8%
Lead Points Retention0.25
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate14.6%
Trailing Win Rate-0.13
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Second Half Goals For Mean0.32
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.04
Portability PPG Range0.08
Portability Score-4.61
Rest days98.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.52
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.00
Current Team ELO92.19
Current Opponent ELO-92.19
Current ELO Difference184.4
Expected score0.26
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance6.34
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.27

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Reggiana U19

L
Genoa U203–0Reggiana U1927 Oct · away
Pick: Genoa U20 50% · hit
D
Modena U190–0Reggiana U1924 Oct · away
Pick: Modena U19 37% · missed
L
Reggiana U191–3Pro Vercelli U1917 Oct · home
Pick: Reggiana U19 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Venezia U19

W
Venezia U192–0Modena U1931 Oct · home
Pick: Modena U19 43% · missed
W
Sudtirol U191–2Venezia U1924 Oct · away
Pick: Sudtirol U19 46% · missed
W
Udinese U191–2Venezia U1917 Oct · away
Pick: Venezia U19 40% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Reggiana U19 and Venezia U19 meet in Campionato Primavera - 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Reggiana U19 win 47.4%, draw 22.8%, Venezia U19 win 29.8%. The pick is Reggiana U19 win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.1%. Both teams to score: 58.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.