ScoreProb
Bundesliga Austria Round 12 2026

Ried vs Lask Linz

Ried Home · Elo 1,529
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Lask Linz Away · Elo 1,672
Innviertel Arena, Ried Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Lask Linz win
Ried win
20.2%
Draw
25.5%
Lask Linz winPick
54.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.2%
No44.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.1%
Under 2.543.9%

How much we know

Ried history74 matches
Lask Linz history79 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 18:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Lask Linz are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Lask Linz are rated 142 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,672 against 1,529. On rating alone Lask Linz would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.

  • Lask Linz score more

    1.55 goals a game over 74 matches for Ried, against 1.96 over 79 for Lask Linz.

  • Lask Linz concede fewer

    Ried concede 1.31 a game, Lask Linz 1.03.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    57% of Ried matches, against 57% for Lask Linz. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ried
Lask Linz
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1529.3
ELO
1671.7
74
ELO · Matches
79
1529.3
Current Team ELO
1671.7
1671.7
Current Opponent ELO
1529.3
-142.4
Current ELO Difference
142.4
0.31
Expected score
0.69
74
History Matches
79
0.02
Residual Mean
0.11
51.67
Overperformance
58.90
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.40
1.80
Goals for per game
2.60
1.60
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
1.80
1.70
Goals for per game
2.30
1.90
Goals against per game
1.10
30.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.30
1.35
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.15
1.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.51
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.04
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
2.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.96
Overall performance9 signals
90
74
Matches
79
1.57
PPG
1.97
45.9%
Win rate
59.5%
18.9%
Draw rate
19.0%
35.1%
Loss rate
21.5%
82.4%
Over 1.5 rate
82.3%
56.8%
Over 2.5 rate
57.0%
29.7%
Over 3.5 rate
34.2%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.12
Venue performance10 signals
100
38
Matches
37
1.87
PPG
1.78
55.3%
Win rate
54.1%
21.1%
Draw rate
16.2%
23.7%
Loss rate
29.7%
89.5%
Over 1.5 rate
83.8%
55.3%
Over 2.5 rate
56.8%
23.7%
Over 3.5 rate
37.8%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.44
38
History Matches
37
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.55
Goals for per game
1.96
78.4%
Scoring rate
81.0%
54.1%
BTTS rate
48.1%
1.71
Goals for per game
1.97
86.8%
Scoring rate
75.7%
55.3%
BTTS rate
43.2%
1.00
Goals for per game
3.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
74
History Matches
79
1.55
Goals Mean
1.96
1.25
Goals Std
1.55
78.4%
Scored 1+ rate
81.0%
48.6%
Scored 2+ rate
59.5%
16.2%
Scored 3+ rate
30.4%
1.71
Venue Goals Mean
1.97
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.31
Goals against per game
1.03
70.3%
Conceding rate
60.8%
1.08
Goals against per game
1.16
65.8%
Conceding rate
64.9%
1.75
Goals against per game
0.33
75.0%
Conceding rate
33.3%
74
History Matches
79
1.31
Conceded Mean
1.03
1.25
Conceded Std
1.12
33.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.3%
17.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
11.4%
1.08
Venue Conceded Mean
1.16
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
29.7%
Clean-sheet rate
39.2%
21.6%
Failed-to-score rate
19.0%
34.2%
Clean-sheet rate
35.1%
13.2%
Failed-to-score rate
24.3%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
29.7%
Clean-sheet rate
39.2%
21.6%
Failed-to-score rate
19.0%
34.2%
Clean-sheet rate
35.1%
13.2%
Failed-to-score rate
24.3%
29.7%
Clean-sheet rate
39.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
74
History Matches
79
0.95
Result entropy
0.87
2.00
Goal Difference Std
2.12
5.35
Stability score
13.07
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
71
Eligible Matches
78
25
Lead Matches
29
84.0%
Lead Win Rate
93.1%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.95
19
Trailing Matches
23
21.1%
Non-loss rate
34.8%
15.8%
Trailing Win Rate
8.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
71
Halftime Coverage Matches
78
0.62
First Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
0.87
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.13
0.77
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.44
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
78.04
Rest days
73.98
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
7
Short Rest History Matches
9
0.71
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.67
41
Normal Rest History Matches
45
1.83
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.80
25
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.32
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.38
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
3.00
25.0%
Win rate
100.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.47
4
Current Competition Matches
3
1.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.67
7
Competition Season Count
9
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.47
Portability PPG Std
0.40
1.23
Portability PPG Range
1.19
51.42
Portability Score
55.80
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
74
Clean History Matches
79
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-142.4
PPG-0.41
GF-0.41
GA0.29
PPG-2.00
PPG0.08
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate2.6%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches-5
Goals Mean-0.41
Goals Std-0.29
Scored 1+ rate-0.03
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Goals Mean-0.26
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.80
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean0.29
Conceded Std0.13
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Conceded 2+ rate8.5%
Conceded 3+ rate6.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.08
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.47
History Matches-5
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.12
Stability score-7.72
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.60
Eligible Matches-7
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate-0.09
Lead Points Retention-0.09
Trailing Matches-4
Non-loss rate-0.14
Trailing Win Rate7.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches-7
First Half Goals For Mean-0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.34
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.42
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.08
Portability PPG Range0.04
Portability Score-4.38
Rest days4.06
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.95
Normal Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.03
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.06
Current Team ELO-142.4
Current Opponent ELO142.4
Current ELO Difference-284.7
Expected score-0.39
History Matches-5
Residual Mean-0.09
Overperformance-7.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.01

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ried

D
SCR Altach1–1Ried31 Oct · away
Pick: SCR Altach 47% · missed
D
Sturm Graz2–2Ried25 Oct · away
Pick: Sturm Graz 65% · missed
W
Ried3–2Austria Vienna17 Oct · home
Pick: Ried 43% · hit
L
TSV Hartberg3–2Ried30 Aug · away
Pick: TSV Hartberg 42% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Lask Linz

W
Lask Linz4–0Slovan Bratislava3 Nov · home
Pick: Slovan Bratislava 48% · missed
W
Lask Linz2–1WSG Wattens31 Oct · home
Pick: Lask Linz 72% · hit
L
Lask Linz1–3Red Bull Salzburg25 Oct · home
Pick: Lask Linz 47% · missed
W
Sporting CP2–3Lask Linz21 Oct · away
Pick: Sporting CP 59% · missed
W
Austria Lustenau0–4Lask Linz17 Oct · away
Pick: Lask Linz 49% · hit

About this match

Ried and Lask Linz meet in Bundesliga on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 18:30 UTC. The match is played at Innviertel Arena, Ried. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Ried win 20.2%, draw 25.5%, Lask Linz win 54.3%. The pick is Lask Linz win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.1%. Both teams to score: 55.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.