ScoreProb
Süper Lig Türkiye Round 11 2026

Rizespor vs Erzurumspor FK

Rizespor Home · Elo 1,536
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Erzurumspor FK Away · Elo 1,618
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Rizespor win
Rizespor winPick
52.0%
Draw
20.1%
Erzurumspor FK win
27.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes53.0%
No47.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.9%
Under 2.538.1%

How much we know

Rizespor history69 matches
Erzurumspor FK history67 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 10:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.0%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Rizespor are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Erzurumspor FK are rated 82 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,618 against 1,536. On rating alone Erzurumspor FK would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Erzurumspor FK score more

    1.59 goals a game over 69 matches for Rizespor, against 1.79 over 67 for Erzurumspor FK.

  • Erzurumspor FK concede fewer

    Rizespor concede 1.55 a game, Erzurumspor FK 1.03.

  • Rizespor games more often go over 2.5 goals

    61% of Rizespor matches, against 49% for Erzurumspor FK. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Rizespor
Erzurumspor FK
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1536.2
ELO
1617.9
69
ELO · Matches
67
1536.2
Current Team ELO
1617.9
1617.9
Current Opponent ELO
1536.2
-81.66
Current ELO Difference
81.66
0.38
Expected score
0.62
69
History Matches
67
0.03
Residual Mean
0.08
52.45
Overperformance
56.25
0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.60
0.80
Goals for per game
0.40
1.00
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.60
1.20
Goals for per game
1.00
1.40
Goals against per game
1.10
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
1.17
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.77
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.30
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.66
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.87
Overall performance9 signals
90
69
Matches
67
1.36
PPG
1.79
37.7%
Win rate
50.7%
23.2%
Draw rate
26.9%
39.1%
Loss rate
22.4%
81.2%
Over 1.5 rate
85.1%
60.9%
Over 2.5 rate
49.3%
34.8%
Over 3.5 rate
25.4%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.28
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
35
1.78
PPG
1.74
52.8%
Win rate
51.4%
19.4%
Draw rate
20.0%
27.8%
Loss rate
28.6%
80.6%
Over 1.5 rate
82.9%
58.3%
Over 2.5 rate
51.4%
27.8%
Over 3.5 rate
20.0%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.16
36
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.59
Goals for per game
1.79
76.8%
Scoring rate
83.6%
62.3%
BTTS rate
46.3%
1.83
Goals for per game
1.54
80.6%
Scoring rate
80.0%
61.1%
BTTS rate
45.7%
0.50
Goals for per game
0.00
50.0%
Scoring rate
0.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
0.0%
69
History Matches
67
1.59
Goals Mean
1.79
1.46
Goals Std
1.61
76.8%
Scored 1+ rate
83.6%
43.5%
Scored 2+ rate
49.3%
20.3%
Scored 3+ rate
20.9%
1.83
Venue Goals Mean
1.54
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.55
Goals against per game
1.03
79.7%
Conceding rate
58.2%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.09
75.0%
Conceding rate
62.9%
1.00
Goals against per game
3.50
50.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
69
History Matches
67
1.55
Conceded Mean
1.03
1.17
Conceded Std
1.18
50.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.4%
15.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.4%
1.33
Venue Conceded Mean
1.09
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
20.3%
Clean-sheet rate
41.8%
23.2%
Failed-to-score rate
16.4%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
37.1%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
20.3%
Clean-sheet rate
41.8%
23.2%
Failed-to-score rate
16.4%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
37.1%
19.4%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
20.3%
Clean-sheet rate
41.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
69
History Matches
67
0.98
Result entropy
0.94
1.82
Goal Difference Std
2.28
2.26
Stability score
6.03
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
69
Eligible Matches
67
19
Lead Matches
25
78.9%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.84
20
Trailing Matches
11
20.0%
Non-loss rate
45.5%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
18.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
69
Halftime Coverage Matches
67
0.57
First Half Goals For Mean
0.73
0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.34
1.03
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.06
0.94
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.77
Rest days
78.67
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
3
1.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.33
42
Normal Rest History Matches
48
1.50
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.81
22
Long Rest History Matches
15
0.95
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.53
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
0.00
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
0.00
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-3.50
7
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.23
Portability PPG Std
0.31
0.63
Portability PPG Range
0.73
68.15
Portability Score
62.09
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
69
Clean History Matches
67
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-81.66
PPG-0.43
GF-0.20
GA0.52
PPG1.50
PPG0.03
PPG0.80
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.22
Failed-to-score rate6.8%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.20
Goals Std-0.15
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Goals Mean0.29
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.39
History Matches2
Conceded Mean0.52
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate-0.22
Conceded 2+ rate25.4%
Conceded 3+ rate2.5%
Venue Conceded Mean0.25
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.10
History Matches2
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std-0.46
Stability score-3.77
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.21
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate-0.01
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate-0.25
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean0.27
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.26
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean3.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.07
Portability PPG Range-0.10
Portability Score6.06
Rest days-0.90
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.58
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.31
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.58
Current Team ELO-81.66
Current Opponent ELO81.66
Current ELO Difference-163.3
Expected score-0.23
History Matches2
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-3.81
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Rizespor

D
Kocaelispor0–0Rizespor31 Oct · away
Pick: Kocaelispor 44% · missed
L
Rizespor3–4Trabzonspor26 Oct · home
Pick: Trabzonspor 46% · hit
L
Çorum FK2–1Rizespor16 Oct · away
Pick: Çorum FK 42% · hit
W
Gaziantep FK1–2Rizespor29 Aug · away
Pick: Gaziantep FK 45% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Erzurumspor FK

L
Erzurumspor FK1–3Çorum FK31 Oct · home
Pick: Erzurumspor FK 39% · missed
W
Gaziantep FK1–3Erzurumspor FK24 Oct · away
Pick: Gaziantep FK 46% · missed
W
Erzurumspor FK2–0Eyüpspor17 Oct · home
Pick: Erzurumspor FK 46% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Rizespor and Erzurumspor FK meet in Süper Lig on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 10:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Rizespor win 52.0%, draw 20.1%, Erzurumspor FK win 27.9%. The pick is Rizespor win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.9%. Both teams to score: 53.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.