ScoreProb
Eliteserien Norway Round 26 2026

Rosenborg vs Start

Rosenborg Home · Elo 1,574
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Start Away · Elo 1,524
Lerkendal Stadion, Trondheim Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Rosenborg win
Rosenborg winPick
61.6%
Draw
17.9%
Start win
20.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.9%
No44.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.7%
Under 2.540.3%

How much we know

Rosenborg history75 matches
Start history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (61.6%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Rosenborg are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Rosenborg are rated 50 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,574 against 1,524. On rating alone Rosenborg would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.71 goals a game over 75 matches for Rosenborg, against 1.80 over 64 for Start.

  • Rosenborg concede fewer

    Rosenborg concede 1.27 a game, Start 1.55.

  • Start games more often go over 2.5 goals

    53% of Rosenborg matches, against 67% for Start. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Rosenborg
Start@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1573.9
ELO
1523.7
75
ELO · Matches
64
1573.9
Current Team ELO
1523.7
1523.7
Current Opponent ELO
1573.9
50.20
Current ELO Difference
-50.20
0.57
Expected score
0.43
75
History Matches
64
0.05
Residual Mean
0.01
53.79
Overperformance
51.12
0.32
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.20
3.80
Goals for per game
0.80
0.80
Goals against per game
1.80
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.20
PPG
0.90
2.90
Goals for per game
0.90
1.20
Goals against per game
2.10
70.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.90
2.26
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.30
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
3.44
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.94
Overall performance9 signals
90
75
Matches
64
1.49
PPG
1.53
41.3%
Win rate
43.8%
25.3%
Draw rate
21.9%
33.3%
Loss rate
34.4%
78.7%
Over 1.5 rate
92.2%
53.3%
Over 2.5 rate
67.2%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
37.5%
2.55
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.27
Venue performance10 signals
100
37
Matches
33
1.78
PPG
1.27
48.6%
Win rate
33.3%
32.4%
Draw rate
27.3%
18.9%
Loss rate
39.4%
73.0%
Over 1.5 rate
90.9%
45.9%
Over 2.5 rate
69.7%
24.3%
Over 3.5 rate
39.4%
1.93
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.03
37
History Matches
33
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.71
Goals for per game
1.80
73.3%
Scoring rate
79.7%
45.3%
BTTS rate
57.8%
1.62
Goals for per game
1.48
78.4%
Scoring rate
75.8%
48.6%
BTTS rate
57.6%
1.47
Goals for per game
0.94
64.7%
Scoring rate
70.6%
35.3%
BTTS rate
64.7%
75
History Matches
64
1.71
Goals Mean
1.80
1.89
Goals Std
1.59
73.3%
Scored 1+ rate
79.7%
50.7%
Scored 2+ rate
56.3%
16.0%
Scored 3+ rate
23.4%
1.62
Venue Goals Mean
1.48
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.27
Goals against per game
1.55
64.0%
Conceding rate
73.4%
0.92
Goals against per game
1.76
59.5%
Conceding rate
75.8%
1.29
Goals against per game
2.24
64.7%
Conceding rate
94.1%
75
History Matches
64
1.27
Conceded Mean
1.55
1.32
Conceded Std
1.37
33.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.3%
18.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.4%
0.92
Venue Conceded Mean
1.76
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.6%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
20.3%
40.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.2%
21.6%
Failed-to-score rate
24.2%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
5.9%
35.3%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.6%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
20.3%
40.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.2%
21.6%
Failed-to-score rate
24.2%
36.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
75
History Matches
64
0.98
Result entropy
0.97
2.55
Goal Difference Std
2.27
1.76
Stability score
3.41
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
75
Eligible Matches
63
29
Lead Matches
22
89.7%
Lead Win Rate
68.2%
0.93
Lead Points Retention
0.76
23
Trailing Matches
17
13.0%
Non-loss rate
35.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
17.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
75
Halftime Coverage Matches
63
0.77
First Half Goals For Mean
0.76
0.61
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
0.93
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.06
0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.92
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.13
Rest days
77.13
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
11
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.09
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.60
33
Normal Rest History Matches
34
1.58
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.74
30
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.60
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.17
Competition & season17 signals
170
17
Matches
17
1.41
PPG
0.59
41.2%
Win rate
11.8%
17.6%
Draw rate
23.5%
41.2%
Loss rate
64.7%
94.1%
Over 1.5 rate
94.1%
52.9%
Over 2.5 rate
58.8%
23.5%
Over 3.5 rate
23.5%
2.04
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
17
Current Competition Matches
17
1.41
Current Competition PPG
0.59
0.18
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.29
10
Competition Season Count
6
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.63
Portability PPG Std
0.76
1.87
Portability PPG Range
2.08
44.06
Portability Score
39.54
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
75
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO50.20
PPG-0.04
GF-0.09
GA-0.28
PPG0.82
PPG0.51
PPG1.20
PPG1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate9.4%
Failed-to-score rate6.4%
History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate16.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.03
History Matches11
Goals Mean-0.09
Goals Std0.30
Scored 1+ rate-0.06
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Goals Mean0.14
Recent 10 Goals Mean2.00
Recent 10 Goals Std1.43
History Matches11
Conceded Mean-0.28
Conceded Std-0.05
Clean-sheet rate9.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.12
Conceded 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Conceded Mean-0.84
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.30
History Matches11
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.28
Stability score-1.64
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.50
Eligible Matches12
Lead Matches7
Lead Win Rate21.5%
Lead Points Retention0.17
Trailing Matches6
Non-loss rate-0.22
Trailing Win Rate-0.18
Halftime Coverage Matches12
First Half Goals For Mean0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.27
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.82
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.47
Competition Season Count4
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.13
Portability PPG Range-0.21
Portability Score4.52
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches6
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.51
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.16
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match0.43
Current Team ELO50.20
Current Opponent ELO-50.20
Current ELO Difference100.4
Expected score0.14
History Matches11
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.67
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.45

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Rosenborg

W
Fredrikstad0–3Rosenborg31 Oct · away
Pick: Rosenborg 37% · hit
L
Rosenborg1–2Ham-Kam28 Oct · home
Pick: Rosenborg 59% · missed
W
Ham-Kam0–3Rosenborg24 Oct · away
Pick: Rosenborg 42% · hit
W
Sarpsborg 08 FF0–3Rosenborg18 Oct · away
Pick: Rosenborg 39% · hit
L
Bodo/Glimt4–2Rosenborg30 Aug · away
Pick: Bodo/Glimt 65% · hit

Start

L
Start0–1Lillestrom1 Nov · home
Pick: Lillestrom 50% · hit
W
Start1–0Sandefjord25 Oct · home
Pick: Sandefjord 41% · missed
L
Molde6–1Start18 Oct · away
Pick: Molde 63% · hit
W
Raufoss1–5Start6 Oct · away
Pick: Raufoss 48% · missed
W
Start4–1KFUM Oslo30 Aug · home
Pick: KFUM Oslo 43% · missed

About this match

Rosenborg and Start meet in Eliteserien on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. The match is played at Lerkendal Stadion, Trondheim. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Rosenborg win 61.6%, draw 17.9%, Start win 20.5%. The pick is Rosenborg win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.7%. Both teams to score: 55.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.