ScoreProb
Damallsvenskan Sweden Round 25 2026

Rosengård W vs Hammarby W

Rosengård W Home · Elo 1,446
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Hammarby W Away · Elo 1,716
Malmo IP Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Hammarby W win
Rosengård W win
13.1%
Draw
14.9%
Hammarby W winPick
72.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.7%
No49.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.5%
Under 2.536.5%

How much we know

Rosengård W history53 matches
Hammarby W history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (72.0%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Hammarby W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Hammarby W are rated 270 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,716 against 1,446. On rating alone Hammarby W would be expected to take 83% of the points on offer.

  • Hammarby W score far more

    1.36 goals a game over 53 matches for Rosengård W, against 2.59 over 64 for Hammarby W.

  • Hammarby W concede fewer

    Rosengård W concede 1.58 a game, Hammarby W 0.72.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    62% of Rosengård W matches, against 64% for Hammarby W. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Rosengård W
Hammarby W
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1445.9
ELO
1716.0
53
ELO · Matches
64
1445.9
Current Team ELO
1716.0
1716.0
Current Opponent ELO
1445.9
-270.1
Current ELO Difference
270.1
0.17
Expected score
0.83
53
History Matches
64
-0.05
Residual Mean
0.17
46.40
Overperformance
62.79
0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.00
PPG
2.20
1.20
Goals for per game
3.20
1.20
Goals against per game
0.40
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
2.10
1.30
Goals for per game
2.70
1.30
Goals against per game
0.60
20.0%
Win rate
60.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.70
1.27
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.79
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
0.64
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.49
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.67
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.21
Overall performance9 signals
90
53
Matches
64
1.02
PPG
2.30
26.4%
Win rate
71.9%
22.6%
Draw rate
14.1%
50.9%
Loss rate
14.1%
79.2%
Over 1.5 rate
81.3%
62.3%
Over 2.5 rate
64.1%
32.1%
Over 3.5 rate
46.9%
2.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.15
Venue performance10 signals
100
26
Matches
31
1.15
PPG
1.97
30.8%
Win rate
58.1%
23.1%
Draw rate
22.6%
46.2%
Loss rate
19.4%
76.9%
Over 1.5 rate
83.9%
69.2%
Over 2.5 rate
54.8%
42.3%
Over 3.5 rate
41.9%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.27
26
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.36
Goals for per game
2.59
71.7%
Scoring rate
87.5%
54.7%
BTTS rate
40.6%
1.54
Goals for per game
2.29
76.9%
Scoring rate
87.1%
65.4%
BTTS rate
41.9%
1.13
Goals for per game
2.47
73.3%
Scoring rate
93.3%
66.7%
BTTS rate
40.0%
53
History Matches
64
1.36
Goals Mean
2.59
1.36
Goals Std
1.77
71.7%
Scored 1+ rate
87.5%
37.7%
Scored 2+ rate
68.8%
13.2%
Scored 3+ rate
48.4%
1.54
Venue Goals Mean
2.29
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.58
Goals against per game
0.72
81.1%
Conceding rate
51.6%
1.58
Goals against per game
0.81
84.6%
Conceding rate
54.8%
1.47
Goals against per game
0.47
93.3%
Conceding rate
46.7%
53
History Matches
64
1.58
Conceded Mean
0.72
1.24
Conceded Std
0.86
47.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
15.6%
18.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
3.1%
1.58
Venue Conceded Mean
0.81
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.9%
Clean-sheet rate
48.4%
28.3%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
15.4%
Clean-sheet rate
45.2%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
12.9%
6.7%
Clean-sheet rate
53.3%
26.7%
Failed-to-score rate
6.7%
18.9%
Clean-sheet rate
48.4%
28.3%
Failed-to-score rate
12.5%
15.4%
Clean-sheet rate
45.2%
23.1%
Failed-to-score rate
12.9%
18.9%
Clean-sheet rate
48.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
53
History Matches
64
0.94
Result entropy
0.72
2.11
Goal Difference Std
2.15
6.10
Stability score
28.18
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
53
Eligible Matches
64
13
Lead Matches
38
76.9%
Lead Win Rate
97.4%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.98
21
Trailing Matches
11
23.8%
Non-loss rate
63.6%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
18.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
64
0.49
First Half Goals For Mean
1.28
0.79
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
0.87
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.31
0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.39
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
4
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
30
Normal Rest History Matches
43
1.03
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.37
21
Long Rest History Matches
16
0.95
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.25
Competition & season17 signals
170
15
Matches
15
0.73
PPG
2.53
13.3%
Win rate
80.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
13.3%
53.3%
Loss rate
6.7%
86.7%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
46.7%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
20.0%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
15
Current Competition Matches
15
0.73
Current Competition PPG
2.53
-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.00
6
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.46
Portability PPG Std
0.37
1.02
Portability PPG Range
1.10
52.17
Portability Score
57.63
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
53
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-270.1
PPG-1.28
GF-1.24
GA0.87
PPG-1.80
PPG-0.81
PPG-1.20
PPG-1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate-0.30
Failed-to-score rate15.8%
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.30
Failed-to-score rate10.2%
History Matches-11
Goals Mean-1.24
Goals Std-0.41
Scored 1+ rate-0.16
Scored 2+ rate-0.31
Scored 3+ rate-0.35
Venue Goals Mean-0.75
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.52
History Matches-11
Conceded Mean0.87
Conceded Std0.38
Clean-sheet rate-0.30
Conceded 2+ rate31.5%
Conceded 3+ rate15.7%
Venue Conceded Mean0.77
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.15
History Matches-11
Result entropy0.22
Goal Difference Std-0.05
Stability score-22.07
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.54
Eligible Matches-11
Lead Matches-25
Lead Win Rate-0.20
Lead Points Retention-0.19
Trailing Matches10
Non-loss rate-0.40
Trailing Win Rate-0.18
Halftime Coverage Matches-11
First Half Goals For Mean-0.79
First Half Goals Against Mean0.46
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.44
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.40
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.80
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.33
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.09
Portability PPG Range-0.08
Portability Score-5.46
Rest days-0.88
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.50
Normal Rest History Matches-13
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.34
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.30
Current Team ELO-270.1
Current Opponent ELO270.1
Current ELO Difference-540.1
Expected score-0.65
History Matches-11
Residual Mean-0.22
Overperformance-16.38
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.02

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Rosengård W

D
Rosengård W1–1Växjö W31 Oct · home
Pick: Rosengård W 50% · missed
L
AIK W2–0Rosengård W25 Oct · away
Pick: AIK W 48% · hit
W
Rosengård W2–0Vittsjö W17 Oct · home
Pick: Rosengård W 42% · hit
L
Malmö FF W1–0Rosengård W4 Oct · away
Pick: Malmö FF W 67% · hit
L
Rosengård W0–1Häcken W29 Aug · home
Pick: Häcken W 76% · hit

Hammarby W

W
Uppsala W0–7Hammarby W1 Nov · away
Pick: Hammarby W 88% · hit
W
Spartak Myjava W1–3Hammarby W28 Oct · away
Pick: Hammarby W 45% · hit
W
Hammarby W3–0Djurgården W24 Oct · home
Pick: Hammarby W 70% · hit
L
Häcken W3–0Hammarby W18 Oct · away
Pick: Häcken W 43% · hit
W
Hammarby W2–0Brommapojkarna W4 Oct · home
Pick: Hammarby W 83% · hit

About this match

Rosengård W and Hammarby W meet in Damallsvenskan on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. The match is played at Malmo IP. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Rosengård W win 13.1%, draw 14.9%, Hammarby W win 72.0%. The pick is Hammarby W win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.5%. Both teams to score: 50.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.