ScoreProb
2. Division Denmark Round 16 2026

Roskilde vs Nykobing FC

Roskilde Home · Elo 1,573
Fri 13 Nov
UTC
Not started
Nykobing FC Away · Elo 1,696
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Nykobing FC win
Roskilde win
29.8%
Draw
23.3%
Nykobing FC winPick
46.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.8%
No39.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.6%
Under 2.537.4%

How much we know

Roskilde history64 matches
Nykobing FC history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    13 Nov · 18:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.9%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,387 matches.

Why Nykobing FC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Nykobing FC are rated 123 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,696 against 1,573. On rating alone Nykobing FC would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.

  • Nykobing FC score more

    1.86 goals a game over 64 matches for Roskilde, against 2.17 over 64 for Nykobing FC.

  • Defences are close

    Roskilde concede 1.23 a game, Nykobing FC 1.14.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    58% of Roskilde matches, against 64% for Nykobing FC. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Roskilde
Nykobing FC@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1572.5
ELO
1695.8
64
ELO · Matches
64
1572.5
Current Team ELO
1695.8
1695.8
Current Opponent ELO
1572.5
-123.3
Current ELO Difference
123.3
0.33
Expected score
0.67
64
History Matches
64
0.05
Residual Mean
0.15
53.50
Overperformance
61.10
0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.15
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
2.60
2.80
Goals for per game
2.60
0.60
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
2.60
2.20
Goals for per game
2.70
1.20
Goals against per game
1.10
30.0%
Win rate
80.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.70
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.87
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.70
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.46
2.05
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.36
Overall performance9 signals
90
64
Matches
64
1.66
PPG
2.03
45.3%
Win rate
59.4%
29.7%
Draw rate
25.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
15.6%
84.4%
Over 1.5 rate
85.9%
57.8%
Over 2.5 rate
64.1%
34.4%
Over 3.5 rate
42.2%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.71
Venue performance10 signals
100
29
Matches
34
1.66
PPG
2.03
44.8%
Win rate
58.8%
31.0%
Draw rate
26.5%
24.1%
Loss rate
14.7%
86.2%
Over 1.5 rate
91.2%
58.6%
Over 2.5 rate
67.6%
44.8%
Over 3.5 rate
44.1%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.51
29
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.86
Goals for per game
2.17
84.4%
Scoring rate
92.2%
67.2%
BTTS rate
62.5%
2.03
Goals for per game
2.18
89.7%
Scoring rate
94.1%
75.9%
BTTS rate
70.6%
1.50
Goals for per game
3.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
64
History Matches
64
1.86
Goals Mean
2.17
1.40
Goals Std
1.42
84.4%
Scored 1+ rate
92.2%
56.3%
Scored 2+ rate
62.5%
21.9%
Scored 3+ rate
32.8%
2.03
Venue Goals Mean
2.18
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.23
Goals against per game
1.14
78.1%
Conceding rate
67.2%
1.28
Goals against per game
1.29
86.2%
Conceding rate
76.5%
1.25
Goals against per game
1.50
100.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
64
History Matches
64
1.23
Conceded Mean
1.14
1.03
Conceded Std
1.06
29.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.4%
10.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
9.4%
1.28
Venue Conceded Mean
1.29
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.9%
Clean-sheet rate
32.8%
15.6%
Failed-to-score rate
7.8%
13.8%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
10.3%
Failed-to-score rate
5.9%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
21.9%
Clean-sheet rate
32.8%
15.6%
Failed-to-score rate
7.8%
13.8%
Clean-sheet rate
23.5%
10.3%
Failed-to-score rate
5.9%
21.9%
Clean-sheet rate
32.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
64
History Matches
64
0.97
Result entropy
0.86
1.77
Goal Difference Std
1.71
2.99
Stability score
13.88
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
63
Eligible Matches
63
27
Lead Matches
25
70.4%
Lead Win Rate
88.0%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.92
16
Trailing Matches
15
50.0%
Non-loss rate
46.7%
18.8%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
63
Halftime Coverage Matches
63
0.84
First Half Goals For Mean
1.05
0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
0.98
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.13
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.49
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
80.10
Rest days
83.25
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
42
Normal Rest History Matches
39
1.71
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.05
20
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.55
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.08
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.50
PPG
2.50
25.0%
Win rate
75.0%
75.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
0.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.50
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.50
Current Competition PPG
2.50
0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.50
7
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.33
Portability PPG Std
0.71
0.87
Portability PPG Range
1.59
60.14
Portability Score
41.32
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
64
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-123.3
PPG-0.38
GF-0.31
GA0.09
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.37
PPG-0.40
PPG-1.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Failed-to-score rate7.8%
History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate4.5%
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.31
Goals Std-0.02
Scored 1+ rate-0.08
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Goals Mean-0.14
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.50
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.09
Conceded Std-0.03
Clean-sheet rate-0.11
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate1.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.02
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.17
History Matches0
Result entropy0.11
Goal Difference Std0.06
Stability score-10.89
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.36
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.69
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches2
Lead Win Rate-0.18
Lead Points Retention-0.17
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate3.3%
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean-0.21
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.24
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.25
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.38
Portability PPG Range-0.72
Portability Score18.82
Rest days-3.15
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.34
Long Rest History Matches-4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.53
Current Team ELO-123.3
Current Opponent ELO123.3
Current ELO Difference-246.6
Expected score-0.34
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.10
Overperformance-7.60
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Roskilde

W
Roskilde2–1HIK6 Nov · home
Pick: Roskilde 54% · hit
D
Naestved0–0Roskilde31 Oct · away
Pick: Roskilde 37% · missed
L
Roskilde1–2Aarhus28 Oct · home
Pick: Aarhus 48% · hit
W
Roskilde4–0Fremad Amager23 Oct · home
Pick: Roskilde 46% · hit
D
Middelfart3–3Roskilde17 Oct · away
Pick: Middelfart 48% · missed

Nykobing FC

W
HIK1–4Nykobing FC30 Oct · away
Pick: Nykobing FC 65% · hit
W
Nykobing FC3–0Thisted FC25 Oct · home
Pick: Nykobing FC 68% · hit
W
Vanløse0–2Nykobing FC21 Oct · away
Pick: Vanløse 47% · missed
L
Fremad Amager3–2Nykobing FC16 Oct · away
Pick: Nykobing FC 48% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Roskilde and Nykobing FC meet in 2. Division on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Roskilde win 29.8%, draw 23.3%, Nykobing FC win 46.9%. The pick is Nykobing FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.6%. Both teams to score: 60.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.