Skive vs Thisted FC
Match result probability Model pick: Skive win
Skive winPick
48.1%
Draw
24.9%
Thisted FC win
27.0%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes52.7%
No47.3%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.550.8%
Under 2.549.2%
How much we know
Skive history68 matches
Thisted FC history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Skive
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 17:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre13 Nov · 18:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,387 matches.
Why Skive are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Thisted FC are rated 29 Elo points higher
Elo 1,499 against 1,469. On rating alone Thisted FC would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.
-
Thisted FC score more
1.16 goals a game over 68 matches for Skive, against 1.36 over 70 for Thisted FC.
-
Thisted FC concede fewer
Skive concede 1.47 a game, Thisted FC 1.27.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
40% of Skive matches, against 47% for Thisted FC. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Thisted FC@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1469.3
ELO
1498.7
68
ELO · Matches
70
1469.3
Current Team ELO
1498.7
1498.7
Current Opponent ELO
1469.3
-29.38
Current ELO Difference
29.38
0.46
Expected score
0.54
68
History Matches
70
-0.02
Residual Mean
-0.02
48.51
Overperformance
48.64
0.05
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.22
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.60
1.00
Goals for per game
2.20
2.20
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
0.90
1.40
Goals for per game
1.70
1.70
Goals against per game
2.40
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.61
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.40
1.68
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.56
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
1.85
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.49
Overall performance9 signals 90
68
Matches
70
1.18
PPG
1.43
27.9%
Win rate
40.0%
33.8%
Draw rate
22.9%
38.2%
Loss rate
37.1%
77.9%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
39.7%
Over 2.5 rate
47.1%
26.5%
Over 3.5 rate
22.9%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.09
Venue performance10 signals 100
35
Matches
41
0.97
PPG
1.54
20.0%
Win rate
46.3%
37.1%
Draw rate
14.6%
42.9%
Loss rate
39.0%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
70.7%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
46.3%
22.9%
Over 3.5 rate
24.4%
1.68
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.48
35
History Matches
41
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.16
Goals for per game
1.36
72.1%
Scoring rate
65.7%
55.9%
BTTS rate
42.9%
1.00
Goals for per game
1.39
68.6%
Scoring rate
61.0%
60.0%
BTTS rate
36.6%
1.50
Goals for per game
0.50
75.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
68
History Matches
70
1.16
Goals Mean
1.36
1.05
Goals Std
1.52
72.1%
Scored 1+ rate
65.7%
27.9%
Scored 2+ rate
38.6%
11.8%
Scored 3+ rate
15.7%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.39
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.47
Goals against per game
1.27
77.9%
Conceding rate
65.7%
1.57
Goals against per game
1.34
82.9%
Conceding rate
63.4%
1.50
Goals against per game
2.25
75.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
68
History Matches
70
1.47
Conceded Mean
1.27
1.34
Conceded Std
1.31
38.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
38.6%
14.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.9%
1.57
Venue Conceded Mean
1.34
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
22.1%
Clean-sheet rate
34.3%
27.9%
Failed-to-score rate
34.3%
17.1%
Clean-sheet rate
36.6%
31.4%
Failed-to-score rate
39.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
22.1%
Clean-sheet rate
34.3%
27.9%
Failed-to-score rate
34.3%
17.1%
Clean-sheet rate
36.6%
31.4%
Failed-to-score rate
39.0%
22.1%
Clean-sheet rate
34.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
68
History Matches
70
0.99
Result entropy
0.98
1.78
Goal Difference Std
2.09
0.74
Stability score
2.45
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
65
Eligible Matches
67
16
Lead Matches
22
56.3%
Lead Win Rate
86.4%
0.65
Lead Points Retention
0.88
20
Trailing Matches
21
35.0%
Non-loss rate
19.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
4.8%
Goal timing5 signals 50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
67
0.54
First Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.66
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
0.60
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.75
0.74
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
80.04
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
42
Normal Rest History Matches
41
1.10
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.44
23
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.22
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.42
Competition & season17 signals 170
4
Matches
4
1.50
PPG
0.00
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.58
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.83
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.50
Current Competition PPG
0.00
0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.75
7
Competition Season Count
7
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.27
Portability PPG Std
0.62
0.74
Portability PPG Range
2.00
64.93
Portability Score
44.75
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
68
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-29.38
PPG-0.25
GF-0.20
GA0.20
PPG1.50
PPG-0.57
PPG0.20
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.20
Goals Std-0.47
Scored 1+ rate6.3%
Scored 2+ rate-0.11
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean-0.39
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.81
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.20
Conceded Std0.04
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Conceded 2+ rate0.00
Conceded 3+ rate1.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.23
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.11
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.31
Stability score-1.71
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.65
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate-0.30
Lead Points Retention-0.23
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate16.0%
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.10
First Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.15
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.75
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.35
Portability PPG Range-1.26
Portability Score20.18
Rest days-4.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.34
Long Rest History Matches-3
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.21
Current Team ELO-29.38
Current Opponent ELO29.38
Current ELO Difference-58.75
Expected score-0.08
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance-0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.27
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Skive
L
B 931–0Skive6 Nov · away
Pick: B 93 40% · hit W
Skive4–1VSK Århus30 Oct · home
Pick: VSK Århus 46% · missed D
Middelfart3–3Skive24 Oct · away
Pick: Middelfart 54% · missed W
Skive2–0FA 200017 Oct · home
Pick: Skive 48% · hit L
Skive1–2Naestved30 Aug · home
Pick: Skive 43% · missed Thisted FC
D
Thisted FC0–0Fremad Amager6 Nov · home
Pick: Fremad Amager 45% · missed L
Thisted FC1–3B 931 Nov · home
Pick: Thisted FC 39% · missed L
Nykobing FC3–0Thisted FC25 Oct · away
Pick: Nykobing FC 68% · hit D
Thisted FC2–2VSK Århus18 Oct · home
Pick: VSK Århus 44% · missed L
Thisted FC0–2Roskilde4 Oct · home
Pick: Roskilde 45% · hit About this match
Skive and Thisted FC meet in 2. Division on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Skive win 48.1%, draw 24.9%, Thisted FC win 27.0%. The pick is Skive win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.8%. Both teams to score: 52.7%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.