ScoreProb
League One Scotland Round 14 2026

Ross County vs Peterhead

Ross County Home · Elo 1,570
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Peterhead Away · Elo 1,507
Global Energy Stadium, Dingwall Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ross County win
Ross County winPick
56.2%
Draw
20.8%
Peterhead win
23.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.9%
No48.1%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.5%
Under 2.540.5%

How much we know

Ross County history74 matches
Peterhead history77 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 15:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (56.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Ross County are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Ross County are rated 63 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,570 against 1,507. On rating alone Ross County would be expected to take 59% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.45 goals a game over 74 matches for Ross County, against 1.45 over 77 for Peterhead.

  • Ross County concede fewer

    Ross County concede 1.36 a game, Peterhead 1.53.

  • Peterhead games more often go over 2.5 goals

    54% of Ross County matches, against 64% for Peterhead. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ross County
Peterhead
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1570.5
ELO
1507.2
74
ELO · Matches
77
1570.5
Current Team ELO
1507.2
1507.2
Current Opponent ELO
1570.5
63.28
Current ELO Difference
-63.28
0.59
Expected score
0.41
74
History Matches
77
0.04
Residual Mean
0.00
53.02
Overperformance
50.32
0.35
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
3.00
PPG
2.40
2.60
Goals for per game
2.00
0.80
Goals against per game
1.20
100.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
2.60
PPG
1.60
2.30
Goals for per game
1.30
0.80
Goals against per game
1.00
80.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.62
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.77
0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.85
Overall performance9 signals
90
74
Matches
77
1.31
PPG
1.38
36.5%
Win rate
39.0%
21.6%
Draw rate
20.8%
41.9%
Loss rate
40.3%
75.7%
Over 1.5 rate
80.5%
54.1%
Over 2.5 rate
63.6%
35.1%
Over 3.5 rate
37.7%
2.20
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.02
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
39
1.38
PPG
1.18
40.6%
Win rate
33.3%
15.6%
Draw rate
17.9%
43.8%
Loss rate
48.7%
81.3%
Over 1.5 rate
79.5%
62.5%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
43.8%
Over 3.5 rate
30.8%
2.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.04
32
History Matches
39
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.45
Goals for per game
1.45
68.9%
Scoring rate
72.7%
45.9%
BTTS rate
57.1%
1.72
Goals for per game
1.23
75.0%
Scoring rate
69.2%
50.0%
BTTS rate
56.4%
2.00
Goals for per game
0.75
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
25.0%
74
History Matches
77
1.45
Goals Mean
1.45
1.48
Goals Std
1.27
68.9%
Scored 1+ rate
72.7%
40.5%
Scored 2+ rate
42.9%
18.9%
Scored 3+ rate
20.8%
1.72
Venue Goals Mean
1.23
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.36
Goals against per game
1.53
71.6%
Conceding rate
79.2%
1.41
Goals against per game
1.67
71.9%
Conceding rate
79.5%
0.67
Goals against per game
1.25
66.7%
Conceding rate
75.0%
74
History Matches
77
1.36
Conceded Mean
1.53
1.26
Conceded Std
1.29
37.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
41.6%
18.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
19.5%
1.41
Venue Conceded Mean
1.67
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.4%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
31.1%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
28.4%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
31.1%
Failed-to-score rate
27.3%
28.1%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
30.8%
28.4%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
74
History Matches
77
0.97
Result entropy
0.96
2.20
Goal Difference Std
2.02
3.20
Stability score
3.51
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
73
Eligible Matches
77
24
Lead Matches
25
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
84.0%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.89
23
Trailing Matches
25
17.4%
Non-loss rate
24.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
12.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
73
Halftime Coverage Matches
77
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.71
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
0.77
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.74
0.74
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.84
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.84
Rest days
73.84
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
58
Normal Rest History Matches
67
1.29
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.36
14
Long Rest History Matches
8
1.36
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.38
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
4
3.00
PPG
1.50
100.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.47
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.66
3
Current Competition Matches
4
3.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.50
9
Competition Season Count
10
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.85
Portability PPG Std
0.85
2.25
Portability PPG Range
3.00
37.09
Portability Score
37.16
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
74
Clean History Matches
77
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO63.28
PPG-0.07
GF-0.01
GA-0.17
PPG1.50
PPG0.20
PPG0.60
PPG1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate7.6%
Failed-to-score rate3.8%
History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate7.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.01
Goals Std0.21
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.49
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.72
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean-0.17
Conceded Std-0.03
Clean-sheet rate7.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.04
Conceded 3+ rate-0.01
Venue Conceded Mean-0.26
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.17
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.19
Stability score-0.32
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.64
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.17
Lead Points Retention-0.14
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.07
Trailing Win Rate-0.12
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.06
Second Half Goals For Mean0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.10
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.83
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std0.00
Portability PPG Range-0.75
Portability Score-0.06
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-9
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.07
Long Rest History Matches6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.02
Current Team ELO63.28
Current Opponent ELO-63.28
Current ELO Difference126.6
Expected score0.18
History Matches-3
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.70
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.29

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ross County

W
Ross County2–0Celtic II3 Nov · home
Pick: Ross County 69% · hit
W
East Kilbride1–2Ross County31 Oct · away
Pick: East Kilbride 40% · missed
D
Ross County1–1Hamilton Academical27 Oct · home
Pick: Hamilton Academical 45% · missed
W
Ross County4–0Airdrie United24 Oct · home
Pick: Ross County 61% · hit
W
Queen of the South1–7Ross County17 Oct · away
Pick: Ross County 43% · hit

Peterhead

W
St. Mirren U211–2Peterhead3 Nov · away
Pick: Peterhead 41% · hit
W
Peterhead2–1Alloa Athletic31 Oct · home
Pick: Alloa Athletic 46% · missed
L
Montrose3–0Peterhead24 Oct · away
Pick: Montrose 40% · hit
W
Peterhead2–0Cove Rangers17 Oct · home
Pick: Peterhead 46% · hit
W
Peterhead1–0Rangers U2113 Oct · home
Pick: Peterhead 71% · hit

About this match

Ross County and Peterhead meet in League One on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:00 UTC. The match is played at Global Energy Stadium, Dingwall. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Ross County win 56.2%, draw 20.8%, Peterhead win 23.0%. The pick is Ross County win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.5%. Both teams to score: 51.9%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.