ScoreProb
First League Russia Round 17 2026

Rotor Volgograd vs Leningradets

Rotor Volgograd Home · Elo 1,529
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Leningradets Away · Elo 1,514
Volgograd Arena Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Rotor Volgograd win
Rotor Volgograd winPick
54.3%
Draw
24.3%
Leningradets win
21.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes47.4%
No52.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.549.6%
Under 2.550.4%

How much we know

Rotor Volgograd history65 matches
Leningradets history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 16:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (54.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Rotor Volgograd are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,529 against 1,514. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Rotor Volgograd score more

    1.26 goals a game over 65 matches for Rotor Volgograd, against 1.06 over 70 for Leningradets.

  • Rotor Volgograd concede fewer

    Rotor Volgograd concede 0.92 a game, Leningradets 1.30.

  • Leningradets games more often go over 2.5 goals

    37% of Rotor Volgograd matches, against 46% for Leningradets. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Rotor Volgograd
Leningradets
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1529.4
ELO
1513.8
65
ELO · Matches
70
1529.4
Current Team ELO
1513.8
1513.8
Current Opponent ELO
1529.4
15.62
Current ELO Difference
-15.62
0.52
Expected score
0.48
65
History Matches
70
0.02
Residual Mean
0.01
51.59
Overperformance
50.56
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.20
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.20
1.60
Goals for per game
0.80
1.00
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.60
PPG
0.70
1.30
Goals for per game
0.50
1.10
Goals against per game
1.70
50.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.50
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.67
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.22
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.27
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.60
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.60
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
70
1.45
PPG
1.43
38.5%
Win rate
38.6%
29.2%
Draw rate
27.1%
32.3%
Loss rate
34.3%
64.6%
Over 1.5 rate
67.1%
36.9%
Over 2.5 rate
45.7%
18.5%
Over 3.5 rate
21.4%
1.82
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
Venue performance10 signals
100
32
Matches
36
1.78
PPG
1.25
53.1%
Win rate
33.3%
18.8%
Draw rate
25.0%
28.1%
Loss rate
41.7%
62.5%
Over 1.5 rate
61.1%
37.5%
Over 2.5 rate
41.7%
15.6%
Over 3.5 rate
19.4%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.72
32
History Matches
36
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.26
Goals for per game
1.06
67.7%
Scoring rate
62.9%
38.5%
BTTS rate
42.9%
1.41
Goals for per game
0.83
71.9%
Scoring rate
52.8%
28.1%
BTTS rate
30.6%
1.57
Goals for per game
0.57
85.7%
Scoring rate
42.9%
57.1%
BTTS rate
42.9%
65
History Matches
70
1.26
Goals Mean
1.06
1.33
Goals Std
1.04
67.7%
Scored 1+ rate
62.9%
30.8%
Scored 2+ rate
31.4%
15.4%
Scored 3+ rate
8.6%
1.41
Venue Goals Mean
0.83
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.92
Goals against per game
1.30
58.5%
Conceding rate
67.1%
0.72
Goals against per game
1.44
46.9%
Conceding rate
63.9%
1.29
Goals against per game
1.29
71.4%
Conceding rate
71.4%
65
History Matches
70
0.92
Conceded Mean
1.30
1.00
Conceded Std
1.31
24.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.3%
6.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.1%
0.72
Venue Conceded Mean
1.44
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
41.5%
Clean-sheet rate
32.9%
32.3%
Failed-to-score rate
37.1%
53.1%
Clean-sheet rate
36.1%
28.1%
Failed-to-score rate
47.2%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
57.1%
41.5%
Clean-sheet rate
32.9%
32.3%
Failed-to-score rate
37.1%
53.1%
Clean-sheet rate
36.1%
28.1%
Failed-to-score rate
47.2%
41.5%
Clean-sheet rate
32.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
70
0.99
Result entropy
0.99
1.82
Goal Difference Std
1.74
0.60
Stability score
0.93
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
64
Eligible Matches
70
19
Lead Matches
15
73.7%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
1.00
11
Trailing Matches
21
18.2%
Non-loss rate
19.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
64
Halftime Coverage Matches
70
0.56
First Half Goals For Mean
0.41
0.41
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
0.70
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.52
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.02
Rest days
76.13
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
36
Normal Rest History Matches
45
1.36
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.27
25
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.64
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.70
Competition & season17 signals
170
7
Matches
7
1.43
PPG
0.86
42.9%
Win rate
14.3%
14.3%
Draw rate
42.9%
42.9%
Loss rate
42.9%
71.4%
Over 1.5 rate
71.4%
42.9%
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.67
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.28
7
Current Competition Matches
7
1.43
Current Competition PPG
0.86
0.29
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.71
7
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.33
Portability PPG Std
0.38
0.98
Portability PPG Range
0.87
60.44
Portability Score
56.91
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO15.62
PPG0.02
GF0.20
GA-0.38
PPG0.57
PPG0.53
PPG0.20
PPG0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-5
Clean-sheet rate8.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate17.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches-5
Goals Mean0.20
Goals Std0.29
Scored 1+ rate4.8%
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate6.8%
Venue Goals Mean0.57
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std0.43
History Matches-5
Conceded Mean-0.38
Conceded Std-0.32
Clean-sheet rate8.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.10
Conceded 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Conceded Mean-0.73
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.05
History Matches-5
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std0.07
Stability score-0.33
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.00
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.00
Eligible Matches-6
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate-0.26
Lead Points Retention-0.19
Trailing Matches-10
Non-loss rate-0.01
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-6
First Half Goals For Mean0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals For Mean0.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.20
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.57
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.00
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.05
Portability PPG Range0.11
Portability Score3.53
Rest days-1.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.00
Normal Rest History Matches-9
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.09
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.06
Current Team ELO15.62
Current Opponent ELO-15.62
Current ELO Difference31.23
Expected score0.04
History Matches-5
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance1.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.19

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Rotor Volgograd

D
Rotor Volgograd0–0FC UFA1 Nov · home
Pick: Rotor Volgograd 47% · missed
L
Rotor Volgograd0–1FC Sochi16 Oct · home
Pick: Rotor Volgograd 41% · missed
L
Volna Nizhegorodskaya2–0Rotor Volgograd9 Sep · away
Pick: Volna Nizhegorodskaya 37% · hit
L
Spartak Kostroma1–0Rotor Volgograd31 Aug · away
Pick: Spartak Kostroma 43% · hit
L
Rotor Volgograd0–1FK Neftekhimik24 Aug · home
Pick: Rotor Volgograd 60% · missed

Leningradets

W
Leningradets2–0Luki-Energiya14 Oct · home
Pick: Leningradets 52% · hit
L
Leningradets0–1KAMAZ29 Aug · home
Pick: Leningradets 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Rotor Volgograd and Leningradets meet in First League on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 16:00 UTC. The match is played at Volgograd Arena. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Rotor Volgograd win 54.3%, draw 24.3%, Leningradets win 21.4%. The pick is Rotor Volgograd win. Over 2.5 goals: 49.6%. Both teams to score: 47.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.