Salamanca UDS vs Celta Vigo
Match result probability Model pick: Celta Vigo win
Salamanca UDS win
24.0%
Draw
24.1%
Celta Vigo winPick
51.9%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes52.6%
No47.4%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.553.3%
Under 2.546.7%
How much we know
Salamanca UDS history50 matches
Celta Vigo history83 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Celta Vigo
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 19:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre13 Nov · 20:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.9%). Picks in that band won 55.7% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,845 matches.
Why Celta Vigo are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Celta Vigo are rated 102 Elo points higher
Elo 1,596 against 1,494. On rating alone Celta Vigo would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.
-
Celta Vigo score more
1.20 goals a game over 50 matches for Salamanca UDS, against 1.47 over 83 for Celta Vigo.
-
Defences are close
Salamanca UDS concede 1.24 a game, Celta Vigo 1.28.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
52% of Salamanca UDS matches, against 53% for Celta Vigo. The model puts this match at 53% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Celta Vigo@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1493.9
ELO
1595.9
50
ELO · Matches
83
1493.9
Current Team ELO
1595.9
1595.9
Current Opponent ELO
1493.9
-102.0
Current ELO Difference
102.0
0.36
Expected score
0.64
50
History Matches
83
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.05
49.30
Overperformance
53.68
-0.17
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.12
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.20
PPG
1.80
0.80
Goals for per game
1.60
1.80
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.70
1.00
Goals for per game
1.50
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
30.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.48
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.36
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.15
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.02
Overall performance9 signals 90
50
Matches
83
1.34
PPG
1.52
38.0%
Win rate
41.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
28.9%
42.0%
Loss rate
30.1%
70.0%
Over 1.5 rate
79.5%
52.0%
Over 2.5 rate
53.0%
18.0%
Over 3.5 rate
26.5%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.35
Venue performance10 signals 100
24
Matches
47
1.54
PPG
1.49
41.7%
Win rate
38.3%
29.2%
Draw rate
34.0%
29.2%
Loss rate
27.7%
79.2%
Over 1.5 rate
74.5%
54.2%
Over 2.5 rate
51.1%
20.8%
Over 3.5 rate
25.5%
1.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.21
24
History Matches
47
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.20
Goals for per game
1.47
72.0%
Scoring rate
86.7%
50.0%
BTTS rate
65.1%
1.46
Goals for per game
1.38
79.2%
Scoring rate
85.1%
58.3%
BTTS rate
63.8%
50
History Matches
83
1.20
Goals Mean
1.47
1.08
Goals Std
0.96
72.0%
Scored 1+ rate
86.7%
32.0%
Scored 2+ rate
42.2%
12.0%
Scored 3+ rate
15.7%
1.46
Venue Goals Mean
1.38
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.24
Goals against per game
1.28
70.0%
Conceding rate
73.5%
1.04
Goals against per game
1.21
66.7%
Conceding rate
70.2%
50
History Matches
83
1.24
Conceded Mean
1.28
1.21
Conceded Std
1.07
32.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
37.3%
14.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.3%
1.04
Venue Conceded Mean
1.21
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.5%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
29.8%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
14.9%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.5%
28.0%
Failed-to-score rate
13.3%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
29.8%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
14.9%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
26.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
50
History Matches
83
0.96
Result entropy
0.99
1.75
Goal Difference Std
1.35
4.07
Stability score
1.17
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
50
Eligible Matches
83
12
Lead Matches
21
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
52.4%
0.81
Lead Points Retention
0.65
17
Trailing Matches
26
11.8%
Non-loss rate
42.3%
11.8%
Trailing Win Rate
19.2%
Goal timing5 signals 50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
83
0.48
First Half Goals For Mean
0.51
0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
0.72
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.96
0.62
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
90.44
Rest days
83.10
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
15
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.47
33
Normal Rest History Matches
50
1.61
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.54
16
Long Rest History Matches
17
0.81
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.53
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
7
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
6
0.17
Portability PPG Std
0.36
0.34
Portability PPG Range
1.05
74.78
Portability Score
58.48
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
50
Clean History Matches
83
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-102.0
PPG-0.18
GF-0.27
GA-0.04
PPG0.05
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-33
Clean-sheet rate3.5%
Failed-to-score rate14.7%
History Matches-23
Clean-sheet rate3.5%
Failed-to-score rate5.9%
History Matches-33
Goals Mean-0.27
Goals Std0.12
Scored 1+ rate-0.15
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.08
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.46
History Matches-33
Conceded Mean-0.04
Conceded Std0.14
Clean-sheet rate3.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate0.7%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.17
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.36
History Matches-33
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std0.41
Stability score2.90
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.04
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std1.13
Eligible Matches-33
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate22.6%
Lead Points Retention0.15
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate-0.31
Trailing Win Rate-0.07
Halftime Coverage Matches-33
First Half Goals For Mean-0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-4
Eligible Competition Season Count-4
Portability PPG Std-0.19
Portability PPG Range-0.71
Portability Score16.30
Rest days7.33
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-15
Normal Rest History Matches-17
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.07
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.72
Current Team ELO-102.0
Current Opponent ELO102.0
Current ELO Difference-204.0
Expected score-0.29
History Matches-33
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.39
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.30
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Salamanca UDS
W
Salamanca UDS1–0Gimnástica Segoviana1 Nov · home
Pick: Salamanca UDS 37% · hit L
CF Talavera2–1Salamanca UDS25 Oct · away
Pick: CF Talavera 54% · hit D
Salamanca UDS1–1Navalcarnero18 Oct · home
Pick: Salamanca UDS 41% · missed L
Sestao River3–1Salamanca UDS14 Oct · away
Pick: Sestao River 52% · hit L
Atlético Tordesillas2–0Salamanca UDS4 Oct · away
Pick: Atlético Tordesillas 66% · hit Celta Vigo
L
Celta Vigo1–2Union St. Gilloise5 Nov · home
Pick: Union St. Gilloise 47% · hit L
Rayo Vallecano3–0Celta Vigo31 Oct · away
Pick: Rayo Vallecano 37% · hit D
Celta Vigo0–0Real Betis25 Oct · home
Pick: Real Betis 42% · missed W
Celtic1–2Celta Vigo22 Oct · away
Pick: Celtic 48% · missed W
Celta Vigo2–1Alaves18 Oct · home
Pick: Celta Vigo 41% · hit About this match
Salamanca UDS and Celta Vigo meet in Copa del Rey on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Salamanca UDS win 24.0%, draw 24.1%, Celta Vigo win 51.9%. The pick is Celta Vigo win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.3%. Both teams to score: 52.6%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.