ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 Spain Group 3 - 10 2026

Sámano vs Selaya

Sámano Home · Elo 1,368
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Selaya Away · Elo 1,454
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 07:46 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sámano win
Sámano winPick
45.2%
Draw
19.4%
Selaya win
35.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes46.7%
No53.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.559.5%
Under 2.540.5%

How much we know

Sámano history55 matches
Selaya history33 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 4 d 9 h ahead
    3 Nov · 07:46 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 17:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.2%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Sámano are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Selaya are rated 87 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,454 against 1,368. On rating alone Selaya would be expected to take 62% of the points on offer.

  • Sámano score more

    1.02 goals a game over 55 matches for Sámano, against 0.91 over 33 for Selaya.

  • Selaya concede fewer

    Sámano concede 1.98 a game, Selaya 1.27.

  • Sámano games more often go over 2.5 goals

    64% of Sámano matches, against 39% for Selaya. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 9 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sámano
Selaya
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1367.6
ELO
1454.3
55
ELO · Matches
33
1367.6
Current Team ELO
1454.3
1454.3
Current Opponent ELO
1367.6
-86.70
Current ELO Difference
86.70
0.38
Expected score
0.62
55
History Matches
33
-0.12
Residual Mean
-0.07
41.39
Overperformance
45.56
-0.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.27
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.00
PPG
2.20
0.40
Goals for per game
2.20
4.00
Goals against per game
1.20
0.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
0.30
PPG
1.80
0.70
Goals for per game
1.80
3.60
Goals against per game
1.20
10.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
0.64
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.08
3.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.11
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.58
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.62
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
33
0.95
PPG
0.94
25.5%
Win rate
24.2%
18.2%
Draw rate
21.2%
56.4%
Loss rate
54.5%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
60.6%
63.6%
Over 2.5 rate
39.4%
34.5%
Over 3.5 rate
18.2%
2.19
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
Venue performance10 signals
100
28
Matches
17
1.25
PPG
0.59
39.3%
Win rate
11.8%
7.1%
Draw rate
23.5%
53.6%
Loss rate
64.7%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
58.8%
64.3%
Over 2.5 rate
41.2%
28.6%
Over 3.5 rate
23.5%
2.34
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.03
28
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.02
Goals for per game
0.91
61.8%
Scoring rate
54.5%
50.9%
BTTS rate
36.4%
1.21
Goals for per game
0.82
67.9%
Scoring rate
52.9%
50.0%
BTTS rate
52.9%
55
History Matches
33
1.02
Goals Mean
0.91
1.05
Goals Std
1.05
61.8%
Scored 1+ rate
54.5%
27.3%
Scored 2+ rate
24.2%
9.1%
Scored 3+ rate
9.1%
1.21
Venue Goals Mean
0.82
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.98
Goals against per game
1.27
81.8%
Conceding rate
75.8%
1.75
Goals against per game
1.47
82.1%
Conceding rate
94.1%
55
History Matches
33
1.98
Conceded Mean
1.27
1.61
Conceded Std
1.02
54.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.4%
30.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.1%
1.75
Venue Conceded Mean
1.47
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
24.2%
38.2%
Failed-to-score rate
45.5%
17.9%
Clean-sheet rate
5.9%
32.1%
Failed-to-score rate
47.1%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
24.2%
38.2%
Failed-to-score rate
45.5%
17.9%
Clean-sheet rate
5.9%
32.1%
Failed-to-score rate
47.1%
18.2%
Clean-sheet rate
24.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
33
0.89
Result entropy
0.91
2.19
Goal Difference Std
1.57
10.67
Stability score
8.70
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
54
Eligible Matches
31
8
Lead Matches
7
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.90
26
Trailing Matches
9
7.7%
Non-loss rate
11.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
54
Halftime Coverage Matches
31
0.43
First Half Goals For Mean
0.52
0.94
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
0.57
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.32
1.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
188.3
Rest days
182.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
31
Normal Rest History Matches
17
1.06
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.82
21
Long Rest History Matches
14
0.48
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.21
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
4
Competition Season Count
1
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.73
Portability PPG Std
—
1.68
Portability PPG Range
—
40.59
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
33
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO-86.70
PPG0.01
GF0.11
GA0.71
PPG0.66
PPG-2.20
PPG-1.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches22
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches11
Clean-sheet rate12.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches22
Goals Mean0.11
Goals Std0.00
Scored 1+ rate7.3%
Scored 2+ rate3.0%
Scored 3+ rate0.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.39
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.44
History Matches22
Conceded Mean0.71
Conceded Std0.59
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Conceded 2+ rate18.2%
Conceded 3+ rate18.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.28
Recent 10 Conceded Mean2.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.13
History Matches22
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.62
Stability score1.97
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.05
Eligible Matches23
Lead Matches1
Lead Win Rate-0.11
Lead Points Retention-0.11
Trailing Matches17
Non-loss rate-0.03
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches23
First Half Goals For Mean-0.09
First Half Goals Against Mean0.36
Second Half Goals For Mean0.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.28
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count3
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days6.25
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match3.00
Normal Rest History Matches14
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.24
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.74
Current Team ELO-86.70
Current Opponent ELO86.70
Current ELO Difference-173.4
Expected score-0.24
History Matches22
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-4.16
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.50

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sámano

W
Laredo1–3Sámano1 Nov · away
Pick: Laredo 67% · missed
D
Sámano1–1Bezana25 Oct · home
Pick: Sámano 41% · missed
D
Torina1–1Sámano18 Oct · away
Pick: Torina 57% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Selaya

L
Selaya0–3Cayón30 Oct · home
Pick: Cayón 38% · hit
L
Guarnizo1–0Selaya25 Oct · away
Pick: Guarnizo 58% · hit
L
Selaya1–2Vimenor18 Oct · home
Pick: Vimenor 42% · hit
W
Selaya3–2Naval Reinosa4 Oct · home
Pick: Selaya 59% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Sámano and Selaya meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 3 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 17:45 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 07:46 UTC: Sámano win 45.2%, draw 19.4%, Selaya win 35.4%. The pick is Sámano win. Over 2.5 goals: 59.5%. Both teams to score: 46.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.