San Carlos vs Boston River
What we said before kickoff Result: Boston River win
San Carlos win
32.0%
DrawPick
34.8%
Boston River win Result
33.2%
How our picks did
Based on the final score. It joins the public record at the next nightly settlement.
Match result
Our pickDraw · 34.8%
What happenedBoston River win · we gave it 33.2%
Missed Over 2.5 goals
Our pickUnder · 51.4%
What happenedUnder · 2 goals
Hit Both teams to score
Our pickNo · 52.5%
What happenedNo · 0–2
Hit How surprising was it?
Result: Boston River win. In our numbers it ranked second of the three.
33%
chance we gave it0%50%100%
1 in 3.0
on average A pick at 35% is expected to miss about 7 times in 10. One match does not judge a model. The record across every settled match does.
See the full record
Timeline
Newest at the bottom
14'
GoalN. Siri
90'
GoalF. Bonfiglio
Both teams to score
Yes47.5%
No52.5%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.548.6%
Under 2.551.4%
How much we know
San Carlos history0 matches
Boston River history70 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your calls on this match
Made on this device before kickoff, compared with the result.
Life of this match
Every step is time-stamped, from first prediction to settled result.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead29 Oct · 08:38 UTC
- Re-published 16 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 18:58 UTC
- Kickoff4 Nov · 18:00 UTC
- Full time: 0–2Two of our three picks hit
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
Share this result
A picture made for this match: teams, our probabilities and the verified stamp. Works in chats and on social.
The card keeps the pre-match numbers. A miss is shared as plainly as a hit.
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (34.8%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.
Why a draw is the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,500 against 1,486. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Boston River@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1500.0
ELO
1485.8
0
ELO · Matches
70
1500.0
Current Team ELO
1485.8
1485.8
Current Opponent ELO
1500.0
14.25
Current ELO Difference
-14.25
0.52
Expected score
0.48
0
History Matches
70
—
Residual Mean
-0.01
—
Overperformance
49.28
—
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.07
Recent form16 signals 160
0
Matches
5
—
PPG
1.40
—
Goals for per game
1.00
—
Goals against per game
1.40
—
Win rate
40.0%
0
Matches
10
—
PPG
0.90
—
Goals for per game
0.60
—
Goals against per game
1.40
—
Win rate
20.0%
—
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.60
—
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.02
—
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
—
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.02
—
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
—
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.40
Overall performance9 signals 90
0
Matches
70
—
PPG
1.26
—
Win rate
32.9%
—
Draw rate
27.1%
—
Loss rate
40.0%
—
Over 1.5 rate
62.9%
—
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
—
Over 3.5 rate
22.9%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
Venue performance10 signals 100
0
Matches
35
—
PPG
0.94
—
Win rate
22.9%
—
Draw rate
25.7%
—
Loss rate
51.4%
—
Over 1.5 rate
74.3%
—
Over 2.5 rate
42.9%
—
Over 3.5 rate
17.1%
—
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
0
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
—
Goals for per game
1.13
—
Scoring rate
60.0%
—
BTTS rate
42.9%
—
Goals for per game
0.91
—
Scoring rate
51.4%
—
BTTS rate
37.1%
0
History Matches
70
—
Goals Mean
1.13
—
Goals Std
1.32
—
Scored 1+ rate
60.0%
—
Scored 2+ rate
28.6%
—
Scored 3+ rate
12.9%
—
Venue Goals Mean
0.91
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
—
Goals against per game
1.24
—
Conceding rate
67.1%
—
Goals against per game
1.40
—
Conceding rate
74.3%
0
History Matches
70
—
Conceded Mean
1.24
—
Conceded Std
1.16
—
Conceded 2+ rate
38.6%
—
Conceded 3+ rate
12.9%
—
Venue Conceded Mean
1.40
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
—
Clean-sheet rate
32.9%
—
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
25.7%
—
Failed-to-score rate
48.6%
—
Clean-sheet rate
32.9%
—
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
25.7%
—
Failed-to-score rate
48.6%
—
Clean-sheet rate
32.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
0
History Matches
70
—
Result entropy
0.99
—
Goal Difference Std
1.73
—
Stability score
1.13
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
0
Eligible Matches
70
0
Lead Matches
16
—
Lead Win Rate
81.3%
—
Lead Points Retention
0.85
0
Trailing Matches
20
—
Non-loss rate
15.0%
—
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
0
Halftime Coverage Matches
70
—
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
—
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.47
—
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.63
—
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
—
Rest days
74.98
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
4
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
0
Normal Rest History Matches
44
—
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.18
0
Long Rest History Matches
21
—
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.62
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
0
Competition Season Count
8
0
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
—
Portability PPG Std
0.26
—
Portability PPG Range
0.70
—
Portability Score
65.92
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
0
Clean History Matches
70
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGGFGAPPGPPGPPGPPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateClean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rateGoals MeanGoals StdScored 1+ rateScored 2+ rateScored 3+ rateVenue Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals MeanRecent 10 Goals StdConceded MeanConceded StdClean-sheet rateConceded 2+ rateConceded 3+ rateVenue Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded MeanRecent 10 Conceded StdResult entropyGoal Difference StdStability scoreRecent 10 Result EntropyRecent 10 Goal Difference StdLead Win RateLead Points RetentionNon-loss rateTrailing Win RateFirst Half Goals For MeanFirst Half Goals Against MeanSecond Half Goals For MeanSecond Half Goals Against MeanCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreRest daysShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per MatchLong Rest Points Per MatchResidual MeanOverperformanceRecent 10 Residual Mean
ELO14.25
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-70
History Matches-35
History Matches-70
History Matches-70
History Matches-70
Eligible Matches-70
Lead Matches-16
Trailing Matches-20
Halftime Coverage Matches-70
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-8
Eligible Competition Season Count-7
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-4
Normal Rest History Matches-44
Long Rest History Matches-21
Current Team ELO14.25
Current Opponent ELO-14.25
Current ELO Difference28.49
Expected score0.04
History Matches-70
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
San Carlos
No earlier results with our pick yet
Boston River
L
Boston River1–2Atletico Torque1 Nov · home
Pick: Boston River 42% · missed L
Cerro Largo2–0Boston River25 Oct · away
Pick: Cerro Largo 45% · hit W
Boston River1–0Defensor Sporting17 Oct · home
Pick: Boston River 45% · hit D
Boston River0–0Juventud4 Oct · home
Pick: Boston River 40% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Match report
San Carlos and Boston River finished 0–2 in Copa Uruguay on Wednesday 4 November 2026. It was 0–1 at half time. ScoreProb published its prediction on 29 Oct, 08:38 UTC, before kickoff: San Carlos win 32.0%, draw 34.8%, Boston River win 33.2%. Two of the three picks hit.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.