ScoreProb
Major League Soccer United States Round 34 2026

San Diego vs Sporting Kansas City

San Diego Home · Elo 1,568
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sporting Kansas City Away · Elo 1,388
Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: San Diego win
San Diego winPick
72.2%
Draw
14.6%
Sporting Kansas City win
13.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.8%
No43.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.568.7%
Under 2.531.3%

How much we know

San Diego history67 matches
Sporting Kansas City history61 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 15 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 00:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (72.2%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why San Diego are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • San Diego are rated 180 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,568 against 1,388. On rating alone San Diego would be expected to take 74% of the points on offer.

  • San Diego score far more

    1.91 goals a game over 67 matches for San Diego, against 1.15 over 61 for Sporting Kansas City.

  • San Diego concede fewer

    San Diego concede 1.30 a game, Sporting Kansas City 2.10.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    60% of San Diego matches, against 67% for Sporting Kansas City. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
San Diego
Sporting Kansas City
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1568.2
ELO
1387.8
67
ELO · Matches
61
1568.2
Current Team ELO
1387.8
1387.8
Current Opponent ELO
1568.2
180.4
Current ELO Difference
-180.4
0.74
Expected score
0.26
67
History Matches
61
0.06
Residual Mean
-0.09
54.26
Overperformance
43.18
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
0.60
1.80
Goals for per game
0.60
1.00
Goals against per game
2.20
80.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
0.90
1.60
Goals for per game
1.10
1.40
Goals against per game
2.40
50.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.04
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.40
1.43
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.50
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
1.47
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.28
Overall performance9 signals
90
67
Matches
61
1.75
PPG
0.80
52.2%
Win rate
21.3%
17.9%
Draw rate
16.4%
29.9%
Loss rate
62.3%
77.6%
Over 1.5 rate
83.6%
59.7%
Over 2.5 rate
67.2%
41.8%
Over 3.5 rate
37.7%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
31
1.94
PPG
0.58
58.3%
Win rate
16.1%
19.4%
Draw rate
9.7%
22.2%
Loss rate
74.2%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
87.1%
58.3%
Over 2.5 rate
83.9%
41.7%
Over 3.5 rate
41.9%
1.89
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
36
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.91
Goals for per game
1.15
83.6%
Scoring rate
63.9%
53.7%
BTTS rate
59.0%
2.06
Goals for per game
1.00
86.1%
Scoring rate
58.1%
47.2%
BTTS rate
58.1%
1.79
Goals for per game
0.95
84.2%
Scoring rate
60.0%
47.4%
BTTS rate
60.0%
67
History Matches
61
1.91
Goals Mean
1.15
1.40
Goals Std
1.13
83.6%
Scored 1+ rate
63.9%
56.7%
Scored 2+ rate
36.1%
29.9%
Scored 3+ rate
9.8%
2.06
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.30
Goals against per game
2.10
65.7%
Conceding rate
90.2%
1.06
Goals against per game
2.48
52.8%
Conceding rate
93.5%
1.42
Goals against per game
2.50
63.2%
Conceding rate
100.0%
67
History Matches
61
1.30
Conceded Mean
2.10
1.23
Conceded Std
1.34
38.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
62.3%
19.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
37.7%
1.06
Venue Conceded Mean
2.48
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
34.3%
Clean-sheet rate
9.8%
16.4%
Failed-to-score rate
36.1%
47.2%
Clean-sheet rate
6.5%
13.9%
Failed-to-score rate
41.9%
36.8%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
15.8%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
34.3%
Clean-sheet rate
9.8%
16.4%
Failed-to-score rate
36.1%
47.2%
Clean-sheet rate
6.5%
13.9%
Failed-to-score rate
41.9%
34.3%
Clean-sheet rate
9.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
67
History Matches
61
0.92
Result entropy
0.84
1.85
Goal Difference Std
1.74
8.24
Stability score
16.19
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
65
Eligible Matches
61
20
Lead Matches
9
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
88.9%
0.87
Lead Points Retention
0.89
21
Trailing Matches
35
28.6%
Non-loss rate
25.7%
14.3%
Trailing Win Rate
8.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
65
Halftime Coverage Matches
61
0.75
First Half Goals For Mean
0.44
0.78
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.18
1.15
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.70
0.55
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.92
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.90
Rest days
76.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
9
Short Rest History Matches
5
1.78
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.40
37
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.62
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.03
20
Long Rest History Matches
25
1.90
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.44
Competition & season17 signals
170
19
Matches
20
1.37
PPG
0.70
36.8%
Win rate
20.0%
26.3%
Draw rate
10.0%
36.8%
Loss rate
70.0%
73.7%
Over 1.5 rate
95.0%
57.9%
Over 2.5 rate
80.0%
36.8%
Over 3.5 rate
45.0%
2.11
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.04
19
Current Competition Matches
20
1.37
Current Competition PPG
0.70
0.37
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.55
7
Competition Season Count
6
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.37
Portability PPG Std
0.50
1.00
Portability PPG Range
1.10
57.28
Portability Score
50.23
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
67
Clean History Matches
61
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO180.4
PPG0.94
GF0.76
GA-0.80
PPG0.67
PPG1.36
PPG1.80
PPG0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate24.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.20
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate40.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.28
History Matches6
Goals Mean0.76
Goals Std0.27
Scored 1+ rate19.6%
Scored 2+ rate20.7%
Scored 3+ rate20.0%
Venue Goals Mean1.06
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.02
History Matches6
Conceded Mean-0.80
Conceded Std-0.11
Clean-sheet rate24.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.23
Conceded 3+ rate-0.18
Venue Conceded Mean-1.43
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.07
History Matches6
Result entropy0.08
Goal Difference Std0.11
Stability score-7.95
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.81
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate-0.09
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches-14
Non-loss rate2.9%
Trailing Win Rate5.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean0.31
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.40
Second Half Goals For Mean0.45
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.36
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.92
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Portability PPG Std-0.12
Portability PPG Range-0.10
Portability Score7.05
Rest days0.85
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match0.38
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.59
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match1.46
Current Team ELO180.4
Current Opponent ELO-180.4
Current ELO Difference360.8
Expected score0.48
History Matches6
Residual Mean0.15
Overperformance11.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.14

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

San Diego

W
St. Louis City0–1San Diego31 Oct · away
Pick: St. Louis City 39% · missed
L
Vancouver Whitecaps4–1San Diego29 Oct · away
Pick: Vancouver Whitecaps 59% · hit
D
San Diego2–2Seattle Sounders25 Oct · home
Pick: San Diego 46% · missed
D
Los Angeles Galaxy2–2San Diego18 Oct · away
Pick: San Diego 43% · missed
D
San Diego3–3Houston Dynamo15 Oct · home
Pick: San Diego 42% · missed

Sporting Kansas City

D
Sporting Kansas City1–1FC Dallas31 Oct · home
Pick: FC Dallas 62% · missed
L
Minnesota United FC3–1Sporting Kansas City29 Oct · away
Pick: Minnesota United FC 66% · hit
L
Sporting Kansas City1–2Austin25 Oct · home
Pick: Austin 46% · hit
L
Sporting Kansas City1–3Real Salt Lake18 Oct · home
Pick: Real Salt Lake 60% · hit
L
Nashville SC4–0Sporting Kansas City15 Oct · away
Pick: Nashville SC 81% · hit

About this match

San Diego and Sporting Kansas City meet in Major League Soccer on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 00:00 UTC. The match is played at Snapdragon Stadium, San Diego. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: San Diego win 72.2%, draw 14.6%, Sporting Kansas City win 13.2%. The pick is San Diego win. Over 2.5 goals: 68.7%. Both teams to score: 56.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.