ScoreProb
NWSL Women United States Quarter-finals 2026

San Diego Wave W vs Utah Royals W

San Diego Wave W Home · Elo 1,525
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Utah Royals W Away · Elo 1,496
Snapdragon Stadium Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 3 Nov, 07:46 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: San Diego Wave W win
San Diego Wave W winPick
48.0%
Draw
25.8%
Utah Royals W win
26.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes56.0%
No44.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.555.4%
Under 2.544.6%

How much we know

San Diego Wave W history42 matches
Utah Royals W history37 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 3 d 19 h ahead
    3 Nov · 07:46 UTC
  2. Re-published 4 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 03:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (48.0%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why San Diego Wave W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • San Diego Wave W are rated 29 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,525 against 1,496. On rating alone San Diego Wave W would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.50 goals a game over 42 matches for San Diego Wave W, against 1.46 over 37 for Utah Royals W.

  • San Diego Wave W concede fewer

    San Diego Wave W concede 1.29 a game, Utah Royals W 1.54.

  • Utah Royals W games more often go over 2.5 goals

    50% of San Diego Wave W matches, against 62% for Utah Royals W. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
San Diego Wave W
Utah Royals W
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1525.2
ELO
1496.5
42
ELO · Matches
37
1525.2
Current Team ELO
1496.5
1496.5
Current Opponent ELO
1525.2
28.77
Current ELO Difference
-28.77
0.54
Expected score
0.46
42
History Matches
37
0.04
Residual Mean
0.00
52.98
Overperformance
49.94
0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
2.20
1.20
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.30
1.30
Goals for per game
2.10
1.00
Goals against per game
1.90
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
1.19
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.45
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
0.89
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.14
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.49
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.94
Overall performance9 signals
90
42
Matches
37
1.50
PPG
1.32
42.9%
Win rate
40.5%
21.4%
Draw rate
10.8%
35.7%
Loss rate
48.6%
78.6%
Over 1.5 rate
73.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
62.2%
26.2%
Over 3.5 rate
37.8%
1.61
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
18
1.42
PPG
1.17
41.7%
Win rate
33.3%
16.7%
Draw rate
16.7%
41.7%
Loss rate
50.0%
79.2%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
41.7%
Over 2.5 rate
72.2%
20.8%
Over 3.5 rate
38.9%
1.86
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.49
24
History Matches
18
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.50
Goals for per game
1.46
69.0%
Scoring rate
75.7%
57.1%
BTTS rate
56.8%
1.46
Goals for per game
1.61
62.5%
Scoring rate
83.3%
50.0%
BTTS rate
66.7%
1.44
Goals for per game
1.84
66.7%
Scoring rate
89.5%
44.4%
BTTS rate
63.2%
42
History Matches
37
1.50
Goals Mean
1.46
1.47
Goals Std
1.18
69.0%
Scored 1+ rate
75.7%
42.9%
Scored 2+ rate
48.6%
21.4%
Scored 3+ rate
13.5%
1.46
Venue Goals Mean
1.61
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.29
Goals against per game
1.54
81.0%
Conceding rate
75.7%
1.29
Goals against per game
1.61
83.3%
Conceding rate
77.8%
1.17
Goals against per game
1.26
77.8%
Conceding rate
68.4%
42
History Matches
37
1.29
Conceded Mean
1.54
0.80
Conceded Std
1.20
45.2%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.6%
2.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
24.3%
1.29
Venue Conceded Mean
1.61
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
19.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
31.0%
Failed-to-score rate
24.3%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
31.6%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
10.5%
19.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
31.0%
Failed-to-score rate
24.3%
16.7%
Clean-sheet rate
22.2%
37.5%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
19.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
42
History Matches
37
0.97
Result entropy
0.87
1.61
Goal Difference Std
1.65
3.43
Stability score
12.88
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
41
Eligible Matches
37
14
Lead Matches
11
64.3%
Lead Win Rate
90.9%
0.74
Lead Points Retention
0.91
11
Trailing Matches
11
9.1%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
41
Halftime Coverage Matches
37
0.66
First Half Goals For Mean
0.81
0.59
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
0.85
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.65
0.73
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.78
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
22
Normal Rest History Matches
19
1.59
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.42
18
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.22
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.29
Competition & season17 signals
170
18
Matches
19
1.67
PPG
1.84
50.0%
Win rate
57.9%
16.7%
Draw rate
10.5%
33.3%
Loss rate
31.6%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
73.7%
38.9%
Over 2.5 rate
68.4%
27.8%
Over 3.5 rate
36.8%
1.45
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.63
18
Current Competition Matches
19
1.67
Current Competition PPG
1.84
0.28
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.58
3
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.18
Portability PPG Std
0.53
0.36
Portability PPG Range
1.06
73.40
Portability Score
48.44
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
42
Clean History Matches
37
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO28.77
PPG0.18
GF0.04
GA-0.25
PPG-0.18
PPG0.25
PPG0.20
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate6.6%
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate20.8%
History Matches5
Goals Mean0.04
Goals Std0.29
Scored 1+ rate-0.07
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate7.9%
Venue Goals Mean-0.15
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.26
History Matches5
Conceded Mean-0.25
Conceded Std-0.40
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate-0.03
Conceded 3+ rate-0.22
Venue Conceded Mean-0.32
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.24
History Matches5
Result entropy0.09
Goal Difference Std-0.04
Stability score-9.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.45
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.27
Lead Points Retention-0.17
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate9.1%
Trailing Win Rate9.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.15
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Second Half Goals For Mean0.21
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Current Competition Matches-1
Current Competition PPG-0.18
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.30
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.35
Portability PPG Range-0.70
Portability Score24.96
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches3
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.17
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.07
Current Team ELO28.77
Current Opponent ELO-28.77
Current ELO Difference57.54
Expected score0.08
History Matches5
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance3.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

San Diego Wave W

W
Bay FC W0–1San Diego Wave W1 Nov · away
Pick: San Diego Wave W 47% · hit
D
San Diego Wave W2–2Boston Legacy W25 Oct · home
Pick: San Diego Wave W 58% · missed
W
North Carolina Courage W1–2San Diego Wave W17 Oct · away
Pick: North Carolina Courage W 42% · missed
W
San Diego Wave W3–2Racing Louisville W29 Aug · home
Pick: San Diego Wave W 49% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Utah Royals W

L
NJ/NY Gotham FC W2–0Utah Royals W1 Nov · away
Pick: NJ/NY Gotham FC W 64% · hit
D
Utah Royals W0–0Seattle Reign FC W24 Oct · home
Pick: Utah Royals W 46% · missed
L
Utah Royals W0–2Kansas City W17 Oct · home
Pick: Utah Royals W 46% · missed
W
Orlando Pride W1–2Utah Royals W29 Aug · away
Pick: Orlando Pride W 42% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

San Diego Wave W and Utah Royals W meet in NWSL Women on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 03:00 UTC. The match is played at Snapdragon Stadium. ScoreProb published its prediction on 3 Nov, 07:46 UTC: San Diego Wave W win 48.0%, draw 25.8%, Utah Royals W win 26.2%. The pick is San Diego Wave W win. Over 2.5 goals: 55.4%. Both teams to score: 56.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.