Santa Cruz RJ vs Serra Macaense
Match result probability Model pick: Santa Cruz RJ win
Santa Cruz RJ winPick
61.1%
Draw
19.3%
Serra Macaense win
19.7%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes53.5%
No46.5%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.554.8%
Under 2.545.2%
How much we know
Santa Cruz RJ history25 matches
Serra Macaense history8 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Santa Cruz RJ
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 4 d 13 h ahead5 Nov · 07:50 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 20:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre9 Nov · 21:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (61.1%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,872 matches.
Why Santa Cruz RJ are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Santa Cruz RJ are rated 69 Elo points higher
Elo 1,590 against 1,522. On rating alone Santa Cruz RJ would be expected to take 60% of the points on offer.
-
Santa Cruz RJ score far more
2.40 goals a game over 25 matches for Santa Cruz RJ, against 1.13 over 8 for Serra Macaense.
-
Serra Macaense concede fewer
Santa Cruz RJ concede 1.20 a game, Serra Macaense 0.88.
-
Santa Cruz RJ games more often go over 2.5 goals
64% of Santa Cruz RJ matches, against 25% for Serra Macaense. The model puts this match at 55% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Jun 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Serra Macaense@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1590.3
ELO
1521.7
25
ELO · Matches
8
1590.3
Current Team ELO
1521.7
1521.7
Current Opponent ELO
1590.3
68.60
Current ELO Difference
-68.60
0.60
Expected score
0.40
25
History Matches
8
0.17
Residual Mean
0.14
59.32
Overperformance
53.90
0.08
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.14
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.00
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
1.80
Goals against per game
0.60
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
8
2.00
PPG
1.63
1.40
Goals for per game
1.13
1.20
Goals against per game
0.88
60.0%
Win rate
37.5%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.13
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.78
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.88
1.54
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.78
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.89
1.83
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.09
Overall performance9 signals 90
25
Matches
8
2.12
PPG
1.63
64.0%
Win rate
37.5%
20.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
16.0%
Loss rate
12.5%
76.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
64.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
48.0%
Over 3.5 rate
12.5%
2.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.09
Venue performance10 signals 100
11
Matches
4
2.45
PPG
1.25
72.7%
Win rate
25.0%
27.3%
Draw rate
50.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
63.6%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
45.5%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
11
History Matches
4
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.40
Goals for per game
1.13
84.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
52.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.55
Goals for per game
0.75
90.9%
Scoring rate
50.0%
54.5%
BTTS rate
25.0%
25
History Matches
8
2.40
Goals Mean
1.13
2.12
Goals Std
0.78
84.0%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
64.0%
Scored 2+ rate
37.5%
44.0%
Scored 3+ rate
0.0%
2.55
Venue Goals Mean
0.75
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.20
Goals against per game
0.88
60.0%
Conceding rate
62.5%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.75
54.5%
Conceding rate
50.0%
25
History Matches
8
1.20
Conceded Mean
0.88
1.30
Conceded Std
0.78
36.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.0%
16.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
0.75
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
16.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
45.5%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
9.1%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
16.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
45.5%
Clean-sheet rate
50.0%
9.1%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
40.0%
Clean-sheet rate
37.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
25
History Matches
8
0.82
Result entropy
0.89
2.50
Goal Difference Std
1.09
18.01
Stability score
11.31
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
24
Eligible Matches
8
12
Lead Matches
4
91.7%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.94
Lead Points Retention
0.83
4
Trailing Matches
2
25.0%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
25.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
24
Halftime Coverage Matches
8
1.08
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.50
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.38
1.29
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
139.2
Rest days
365.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
12
Normal Rest History Matches
4
1.83
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.50
10
Long Rest History Matches
2
2.20
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
1
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
0.01
Portability PPG Std
—
0.02
Portability PPG Range
—
97.83
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
25
Clean History Matches
8
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
ELO68.60
PPG0.50
GF1.28
GA0.33
PPG1.20
PPG-0.60
PPG0.38
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches17
Clean-sheet rate2.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate-0.41
History Matches17
Goals Mean1.28
Goals Std1.34
Scored 1+ rate9.0%
Scored 2+ rate26.5%
Scored 3+ rate44.0%
Venue Goals Mean1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.28
Recent 10 Goals Std0.24
History Matches17
Conceded Mean0.33
Conceded Std0.52
Clean-sheet rate2.5%
Conceded 2+ rate11.0%
Conceded 3+ rate16.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.25
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.33
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.76
History Matches17
Result entropy-0.07
Goal Difference Std1.41
Stability score6.70
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.74
Eligible Matches16
Lead Matches8
Lead Win Rate16.7%
Lead Points Retention0.11
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.25
Trailing Win Rate25.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches16
First Half Goals For Mean0.46
First Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean0.79
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.25
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Rest days-226.0
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match3.00
Normal Rest History Matches8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.67
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match1.20
Current Team ELO68.60
Current Opponent ELO-68.60
Current ELO Difference137.2
Expected score0.19
History Matches17
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance5.42
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Santa Cruz RJ
D
Friburguense1–1Santa Cruz RJ1 Nov · away
Pick: Santa Cruz RJ 47% · missed W
Paraty0–1Santa Cruz RJ19 Oct · away
Pick: Paraty 38% · missed L
Serra Macaense3–0Santa Cruz RJ5 Oct · away
Pick: Santa Cruz RJ 43% · missed W
Santa Cruz RJ2–07 de Abril30 Aug · home
Pick: Santa Cruz RJ 66% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Serra Macaense
W
Campos AA0–3Serra Macaense1 Nov · away
Pick: Campos AA 37% · missed D
Campos AA0–0Serra Macaense18 Oct · away
Pick: Campos AA 37% · missed W
Serra Macaense3–0Santa Cruz RJ5 Oct · home
Pick: Santa Cruz RJ 43% · missed L
Serra Macaense0–1Friburguense30 Aug · home
Pick: Draw 38% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Santa Cruz RJ and Serra Macaense meet in Carioca B2 on Monday 9 November 2026, kickoff 21:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 5 Nov, 07:50 UTC: Santa Cruz RJ win 61.1%, draw 19.3%, Serra Macaense win 19.7%. The pick is Santa Cruz RJ win. Over 2.5 goals: 54.8%. Both teams to score: 53.5%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.