ScoreProb
Liga MX Femenil Mexico Round 14 2026

Santos Laguna W vs Tijuana W

Santos Laguna W Home · Elo 1,354
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
Tijuana W Away · Elo 1,471
Estadio Corona Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Tijuana W win
Santos Laguna W win
22.1%
Draw
19.4%
Tijuana W winPick
58.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.3%
No40.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.5%
Under 2.538.5%

How much we know

Santos Laguna W history42 matches
Tijuana W history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 18 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 03:10 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (58.5%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Tijuana W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Tijuana W are rated 117 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,471 against 1,354. On rating alone Tijuana W would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Tijuana W score far more

    0.90 goals a game over 42 matches for Santos Laguna W, against 1.51 over 45 for Tijuana W.

  • Tijuana W concede fewer

    Santos Laguna W concede 2.33 a game, Tijuana W 1.60.

  • Santos Laguna W games more often go over 2.5 goals

    71% of Santos Laguna W matches, against 56% for Tijuana W. The model puts this match at 61% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Santos Laguna W
Tijuana W
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1354.0
ELO
1470.7
42
ELO · Matches
45
1354.0
Current Team ELO
1470.7
1470.7
Current Opponent ELO
1354.0
-116.7
Current ELO Difference
116.7
0.34
Expected score
0.66
42
History Matches
45
-0.17
Residual Mean
-0.02
38.53
Overperformance
48.46
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.04
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.80
2.60
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.70
PPG
1.60
1.10
Goals for per game
2.10
2.20
Goals against per game
1.20
20.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
0.83
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.92
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.25
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.75
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.39
Overall performance9 signals
90
42
Matches
45
0.52
PPG
1.20
14.3%
Win rate
31.1%
9.5%
Draw rate
26.7%
76.2%
Loss rate
42.2%
83.3%
Over 1.5 rate
88.9%
71.4%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
31.1%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.91
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
20
0.55
PPG
1.20
13.6%
Win rate
35.0%
13.6%
Draw rate
15.0%
72.7%
Loss rate
50.0%
77.3%
Over 1.5 rate
95.0%
68.2%
Over 2.5 rate
60.0%
27.3%
Over 3.5 rate
35.0%
1.35
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.01
22
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.90
Goals for per game
1.51
64.3%
Scoring rate
75.6%
59.5%
BTTS rate
62.2%
0.86
Goals for per game
1.70
63.6%
Scoring rate
65.0%
59.1%
BTTS rate
55.0%
1.25
Goals for per game
1.75
75.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
42
History Matches
45
0.90
Goals Mean
1.51
0.84
Goals Std
1.33
64.3%
Scored 1+ rate
75.6%
21.4%
Scored 2+ rate
44.4%
4.8%
Scored 3+ rate
20.0%
0.86
Venue Goals Mean
1.70
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.33
Goals against per game
1.60
90.5%
Conceding rate
82.2%
2.09
Goals against per game
1.75
86.4%
Conceding rate
90.0%
2.75
Goals against per game
1.75
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
42
History Matches
45
2.33
Conceded Mean
1.60
1.49
Conceded Std
1.29
69.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
48.9%
40.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.3%
2.09
Venue Conceded Mean
1.75
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
9.5%
Clean-sheet rate
17.8%
35.7%
Failed-to-score rate
24.4%
13.6%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
35.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
9.5%
Clean-sheet rate
17.8%
35.7%
Failed-to-score rate
24.4%
13.6%
Clean-sheet rate
10.0%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
35.0%
9.5%
Clean-sheet rate
17.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
42
History Matches
45
0.65
Result entropy
0.98
1.59
Goal Difference Std
1.91
35.45
Stability score
1.71
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
42
Eligible Matches
45
3
Lead Matches
12
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.67
Lead Points Retention
0.81
23
Trailing Matches
18
4.3%
Non-loss rate
22.2%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
11.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
42
Halftime Coverage Matches
45
0.40
First Half Goals For Mean
0.62
1.07
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.76
0.50
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.89
1.26
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.84
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
75.09
Rest days
73.09
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
2
0.33
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
25
Normal Rest History Matches
23
0.72
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.61
13
Long Rest History Matches
19
0.23
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.63
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.75
PPG
0.75
25.0%
Win rate
25.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
75.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.35
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.75
Current Competition PPG
0.75
-1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
3
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.21
Portability PPG Std
0.23
0.50
Portability PPG Range
0.56
70.30
Portability Score
68.48
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
42
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-116.7
PPG-0.68
GF-0.61
GA0.73
PPG0.00
PPG-0.65
PPG-0.60
PPG-0.90
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate11.3%
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate3.6%
Failed-to-score rate1.4%
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.61
Goals Std-0.49
Scored 1+ rate-0.11
Scored 2+ rate-0.23
Scored 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Goals Mean-0.84
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.09
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.73
Conceded Std0.20
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Conceded 2+ rate20.2%
Conceded 3+ rate27.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.34
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.50
History Matches-3
Result entropy-0.34
Goal Difference Std-0.32
Stability score33.74
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.75
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.14
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate-0.18
Trailing Win Rate-0.11
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.22
First Half Goals Against Mean0.32
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.39
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.42
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.50
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.02
Portability PPG Range-0.06
Portability Score1.82
Rest days2.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.67
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.89
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.40
Current Team ELO-116.7
Current Opponent ELO116.7
Current ELO Difference-233.4
Expected score-0.32
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.15
Overperformance-9.93
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Santos Laguna W

W
Necaxa W1–3Santos Laguna W1 Nov · away
Pick: Santos Laguna W 62% · hit
L
Santos Laguna W1–2León W27 Oct · home
Pick: León W 51% · hit
D
Toluca W0–0Santos Laguna W20 Oct · away
Pick: Toluca W 79% · missed
W
Santos Laguna W1–0Atlante W1 Sep · home
Pick: Santos Laguna W 46% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Tijuana W

D
Tijuana W1–1Pumas UNAM W24 Oct · home
Pick: Tijuana W 40% · missed
D
Puebla W1–1Tijuana W17 Oct · away
Pick: Tijuana W 81% · missed
W
Tijuana W1–0Atlante W4 Oct · home
Pick: Tijuana W 65% · hit
L
América W3–1Tijuana W30 Aug · away
Pick: América W 73% · hit
L
Atlas W2–0Tijuana W25 Aug · away
Pick: Tijuana W 47% · missed

About this match

Santos Laguna W and Tijuana W meet in Liga MX Femenil on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 03:10 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Corona. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Santos Laguna W win 22.1%, draw 19.4%, Tijuana W win 58.5%. The pick is Tijuana W win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.5%. Both teams to score: 59.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.