ScoreProb
Liga MX Femenil Mexico Round 14 2026

Necaxa W vs Atlas W

Necaxa W Home · Elo 1,336
Thu 5 Nov
UTC
Not started
Atlas W Away · Elo 1,457
Estadio Victoria, Aguascalientes Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Atlas W win
Necaxa W win
6.9%
Draw
11.8%
Atlas W winPick
81.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.8%
No48.2%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.572.2%
Under 2.527.8%

How much we know

Necaxa W history34 matches
Atlas W history45 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 14 h ahead
    30 Oct · 08:38 UTC
  2. Re-published 13 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 19:23 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    5 Nov · 23:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 80%+ band (81.3%). Picks in that band won 83.3% of the time, and the model said 84.5% on average, over 162 matches. This band has few matches, so treat the figures with care.

Why Atlas W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Atlas W are rated 121 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,457 against 1,336. On rating alone Atlas W would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.

  • Atlas W score far more

    0.68 goals a game over 34 matches for Necaxa W, against 1.47 over 45 for Atlas W.

  • Atlas W concede fewer

    Necaxa W concede 3.15 a game, Atlas W 1.82.

  • Necaxa W games more often go over 2.5 goals

    76% of Necaxa W matches, against 62% for Atlas W. The model puts this match at 72% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Necaxa W
Atlas W
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1335.7
ELO
1456.6
34
ELO · Matches
45
1335.7
Current Team ELO
1456.6
1456.6
Current Opponent ELO
1335.7
-120.9
Current ELO Difference
120.9
0.33
Expected score
0.67
34
History Matches
45
-0.25
Residual Mean
-0.05
34.20
Overperformance
46.62
-0.24
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.00
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.00
PPG
1.00
0.80
Goals for per game
1.20
3.60
Goals against per game
1.40
0.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.30
PPG
1.10
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
3.60
Goals against per game
1.80
10.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.77
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.89
3.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.96
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.25
0.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.29
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.83
Overall performance9 signals
90
34
Matches
45
0.44
PPG
1.20
14.7%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
20.0%
85.3%
Loss rate
46.7%
85.3%
Over 1.5 rate
86.7%
76.5%
Over 2.5 rate
62.2%
52.9%
Over 3.5 rate
37.8%
2.33
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.91
Venue performance10 signals
100
15
Matches
23
0.80
PPG
1.00
26.7%
Win rate
26.1%
0.0%
Draw rate
21.7%
73.3%
Loss rate
52.2%
86.7%
Over 1.5 rate
82.6%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
56.5%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
39.1%
2.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
15
History Matches
23
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
0.68
Goals for per game
1.47
47.1%
Scoring rate
75.6%
41.2%
BTTS rate
60.0%
0.80
Goals for per game
1.13
53.3%
Scoring rate
73.9%
40.0%
BTTS rate
56.5%
0.50
Goals for per game
1.25
50.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
34
History Matches
45
0.68
Goals Mean
1.47
0.83
Goals Std
1.34
47.1%
Scored 1+ rate
75.6%
17.6%
Scored 2+ rate
40.0%
2.9%
Scored 3+ rate
15.6%
0.80
Venue Goals Mean
1.13
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
3.15
Goals against per game
1.82
94.1%
Conceding rate
82.2%
2.87
Goals against per game
1.87
86.7%
Conceding rate
78.3%
3.75
Goals against per game
1.25
100.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
34
History Matches
45
3.15
Conceded Mean
1.82
1.90
Conceded Std
1.35
73.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
55.6%
58.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.9%
2.87
Venue Conceded Mean
1.87
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
5.9%
Clean-sheet rate
17.8%
52.9%
Failed-to-score rate
24.4%
13.3%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
46.7%
Failed-to-score rate
26.1%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
5.9%
Clean-sheet rate
17.8%
52.9%
Failed-to-score rate
24.4%
13.3%
Clean-sheet rate
21.7%
46.7%
Failed-to-score rate
26.1%
5.9%
Clean-sheet rate
17.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
34
History Matches
45
0.38
Result entropy
0.95
2.33
Goal Difference Std
1.91
61.99
Stability score
4.99
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
34
Eligible Matches
45
3
Lead Matches
14
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
64.3%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.71
22
Trailing Matches
13
0.0%
Non-loss rate
30.8%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
34
Halftime Coverage Matches
45
0.32
First Half Goals For Mean
0.78
1.79
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
0.35
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.69
1.35
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.20
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
73.95
Rest days
72.92
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
10
Normal Rest History Matches
25
0.30
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.12
23
Long Rest History Matches
18
0.52
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.28
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.00
PPG
1.25
0.0%
Win rate
25.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
50.0%
100.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
2.49
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.41
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.00
Current Competition PPG
1.25
-3.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
3
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.35
Portability PPG Std
0.39
0.86
Portability PPG Range
0.93
58.80
Portability Score
56.16
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
34
Clean History Matches
45
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-120.9
PPG-0.76
GF-0.79
GA1.32
PPG-1.25
PPG-0.20
PPG-1.00
PPG-0.80
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-11
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate28.5%
History Matches-8
Clean-sheet rate-0.08
Failed-to-score rate20.6%
History Matches-11
Goals Mean-0.79
Goals Std-0.51
Scored 1+ rate-0.28
Scored 2+ rate-0.22
Scored 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Goals Mean-0.33
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.12
History Matches-11
Conceded Mean1.32
Conceded Std0.54
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Conceded 2+ rate18.0%
Conceded 3+ rate29.9%
Venue Conceded Mean1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.71
History Matches-11
Result entropy-0.57
Goal Difference Std0.42
Stability score57.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.46
Eligible Matches-11
Lead Matches-11
Lead Win Rate35.7%
Lead Points Retention0.29
Trailing Matches9
Non-loss rate-0.31
Trailing Win Rate-0.08
Halftime Coverage Matches-11
First Half Goals For Mean-0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean1.17
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.34
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-3.25
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.04
Portability PPG Range-0.08
Portability Score2.64
Rest days1.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches-15
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.82
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.76
Current Team ELO-120.9
Current Opponent ELO120.9
Current ELO Difference-241.8
Expected score-0.33
History Matches-11
Residual Mean-0.20
Overperformance-12.41
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.24

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Necaxa W

L
Necaxa W1–3Santos Laguna W1 Nov · home
Pick: Santos Laguna W 62% · hit
L
Pachuca W5–0Necaxa W24 Oct · away
Pick: Pachuca W 91% · hit
L
Guadalajara W7–0Necaxa W21 Oct · away
Pick: Guadalajara W 94% · hit
L
Necaxa W0–2Cruz Azul W4 Oct · home
Pick: Cruz Azul W 69% · hit
L
Puebla W4–1Necaxa W30 Aug · away
Pick: Necaxa W 46% · missed

Atlas W

L
Atlas W0–7Tigres UANL W31 Oct · home
Pick: Tigres UANL W 75% · hit
W
Atlas W2–1Puebla W26 Oct · home
Pick: Atlas W 84% · hit
D
Atlas W1–1León W23 Oct · home
Pick: Atlas W 43% · missed
L
Pumas UNAM W1–0Atlas W18 Oct · away
Pick: Pumas UNAM W 45% · hit
L
Atlético San Luis W6–1Atlas W30 Aug · away
Pick: Atlético San Luis W 40% · hit

About this match

Necaxa W and Atlas W meet in Liga MX Femenil on Thursday 5 November 2026, kickoff 23:00 UTC. The match is played at Estadio Victoria, Aguascalientes. ScoreProb published its prediction on 30 Oct, 08:38 UTC: Necaxa W win 6.9%, draw 11.8%, Atlas W win 81.3%. The pick is Atlas W win. Over 2.5 goals: 72.2%. Both teams to score: 51.8%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.