ScoreProb
Bundesliga Germany Round 9 2026

SC Freiburg vs Union Berlin

SC Freiburg Home · Elo 1,615
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Union Berlin Away · Elo 1,501
Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: SC Freiburg win
SC Freiburg winPick
61.3%
Draw
16.6%
Union Berlin win
22.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.5%
No39.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.561.7%
Under 2.538.3%

How much we know

SC Freiburg history77 matches
Union Berlin history71 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 7 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 16:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (61.3%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why SC Freiburg are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • SC Freiburg are rated 114 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,615 against 1,501. On rating alone SC Freiburg would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.68 goals a game over 77 matches for SC Freiburg, against 1.66 over 71 for Union Berlin.

  • SC Freiburg concede fewer

    SC Freiburg concede 1.26 a game, Union Berlin 1.61.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    61% of SC Freiburg matches, against 61% for Union Berlin. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
SC Freiburg
Union Berlin
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1614.9
ELO
1501.2
77
ELO · Matches
71
1614.9
Current Team ELO
1501.2
1501.2
Current Opponent ELO
1614.9
113.7
Current ELO Difference
-113.7
0.66
Expected score
0.34
77
History Matches
71
0.08
Residual Mean
-0.01
56.06
Overperformance
49.43
0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.40
2.60
Goals for per game
2.40
1.00
Goals against per game
2.40
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.90
PPG
1.20
2.40
Goals for per game
2.70
1.30
Goals against per game
2.00
60.0%
Win rate
30.0%
2.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.70
1.43
Recent 10 Goals Std
3.29
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.77
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.32
Overall performance9 signals
90
77
Matches
71
1.74
PPG
1.25
50.6%
Win rate
32.4%
22.1%
Draw rate
28.2%
27.3%
Loss rate
39.4%
76.6%
Over 1.5 rate
78.9%
61.0%
Over 2.5 rate
60.6%
35.1%
Over 3.5 rate
40.8%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.43
Venue performance10 signals
100
40
Matches
39
2.00
PPG
1.41
60.0%
Win rate
41.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
17.9%
20.0%
Loss rate
41.0%
85.0%
Over 1.5 rate
82.1%
70.0%
Over 2.5 rate
59.0%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
38.5%
1.76
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.98
40
History Matches
39
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.68
Goals for per game
1.66
79.2%
Scoring rate
74.6%
55.8%
BTTS rate
60.6%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.87
92.5%
Scoring rate
74.4%
65.0%
BTTS rate
56.4%
77
History Matches
71
1.68
Goals Mean
1.66
1.29
Goals Std
1.99
79.2%
Scored 1+ rate
74.6%
51.9%
Scored 2+ rate
39.4%
24.7%
Scored 3+ rate
18.3%
2.00
Venue Goals Mean
1.87
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.26
Goals against per game
1.61
68.8%
Conceding rate
80.3%
1.20
Goals against per game
1.56
70.0%
Conceding rate
79.5%
77
History Matches
71
1.26
Conceded Mean
1.61
1.24
Conceded Std
1.28
32.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
45.1%
16.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.9%
1.20
Venue Conceded Mean
1.56
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
31.2%
Clean-sheet rate
19.7%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.4%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
7.5%
Failed-to-score rate
25.6%
31.2%
Clean-sheet rate
19.7%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
25.4%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.5%
7.5%
Failed-to-score rate
25.6%
31.2%
Clean-sheet rate
19.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
77
History Matches
71
0.94
Result entropy
0.99
1.85
Goal Difference Std
2.43
6.03
Stability score
0.88
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
75
Eligible Matches
69
28
Lead Matches
17
85.7%
Lead Win Rate
76.5%
0.88
Lead Points Retention
0.82
13
Trailing Matches
28
46.2%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
15.4%
Trailing Win Rate
7.1%
Goal timing5 signals
50
75
Halftime Coverage Matches
69
0.76
First Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.52
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.81
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.87
0.77
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.02
Rest days
77.13
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
15
Short Rest History Matches
8
1.40
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.88
43
Normal Rest History Matches
36
1.86
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.06
18
Long Rest History Matches
26
1.67
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.69
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
7
Competition Season Count
6
6
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.50
Portability PPG Std
0.10
1.62
Portability PPG Range
0.28
49.97
Portability Score
83.34
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
77
Clean History Matches
71
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO113.7
PPG0.49
GF0.01
GA-0.35
PPG0.59
PPG1.00
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate11.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate9.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.18
History Matches6
Goals Mean0.01
Goals Std-0.69
Scored 1+ rate4.6%
Scored 2+ rate12.5%
Scored 3+ rate6.4%
Venue Goals Mean0.13
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-1.86
History Matches6
Conceded Mean-0.35
Conceded Std-0.04
Clean-sheet rate11.5%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.13
Conceded 3+ rate-0.07
Venue Conceded Mean-0.36
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.23
History Matches6
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.58
Stability score5.15
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.20
Eligible Matches6
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate9.2%
Lead Points Retention0.06
Trailing Matches-15
Non-loss rate21.2%
Trailing Win Rate8.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches6
First Half Goals For Mean0.12
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.29
Second Half Goals For Mean0.01
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.02
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.40
Portability PPG Range1.34
Portability Score-33.37
Rest days-0.10
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches7
Short Rest Points Per Match0.53
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.80
Long Rest History Matches-8
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.03
Current Team ELO113.7
Current Opponent ELO-113.7
Current ELO Difference227.3
Expected score0.32
History Matches6
Residual Mean0.08
Overperformance6.62
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

SC Freiburg

W
FC Augsburg1–2SC Freiburg31 Oct · away
Pick: SC Freiburg 46% · hit
W
SC Freiburg3–2VfL Wolfsburg28 Oct · home
Pick: SC Freiburg 58% · hit
L
SC Freiburg1–3Bayern München25 Oct · home
Pick: Bayern München 53% · hit
L
Monaco3–0SC Freiburg22 Oct · away
Pick: SC Freiburg 43% · missed
L
Bayer Leverkusen2–1SC Freiburg18 Oct · away
Pick: Bayer Leverkusen 53% · hit

Union Berlin

D
Union Berlin1–11. FC Köln1 Nov · home
Pick: Union Berlin 51% · missed
L
1. FC Köln5–0Union Berlin27 Oct · away
Pick: 1. FC Köln 40% · hit
D
FC Augsburg1–1Union Berlin24 Oct · away
Pick: Union Berlin 44% · missed
D
Union Berlin0–0Borussia Dortmund17 Oct · home
Pick: Borussia Dortmund 53% · missed
D
Union Berlin3–3Eintracht Frankfurt29 Aug · home
Pick: Eintracht Frankfurt 51% · missed

About this match

SC Freiburg and Union Berlin meet in Bundesliga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 16:30 UTC. The match is played at Europa-Park Stadion, Freiburg. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: SC Freiburg win 61.3%, draw 16.6%, Union Berlin win 22.1%. The pick is SC Freiburg win. Over 2.5 goals: 61.7%. Both teams to score: 60.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.