1899 Hoffenheim vs FC Schalke 04
1899 Hoffenheim
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
FC Schalke 04
Match result probability Model pick: FC Schalke 04 win
1899 Hoffenheim win
36.3%
Draw
24.6%
FC Schalke 04 winPick
39.1%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes60.3%
No39.7%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.565.0%
Under 2.535.0%
How much we know
1899 Hoffenheim history62 matches
FC Schalke 04 history64 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours FC Schalke 04
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 17:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre8 Nov · 18:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.1%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.
Why FC Schalke 04 are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
The Elo ratings are level
Elo 1,617 against 1,604. On rating alone the teams are close to even.
-
1899 Hoffenheim score more
2.16 goals a game over 62 matches for 1899 Hoffenheim, against 1.47 over 64 for FC Schalke 04.
-
FC Schalke 04 concede fewer
1899 Hoffenheim concede 1.53 a game, FC Schalke 04 1.28.
-
1899 Hoffenheim games more often go over 2.5 goals
73% of 1899 Hoffenheim matches, against 56% for FC Schalke 04. The model puts this match at 65% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
1899 Hoffenheim
FC Schalke 04
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1617.1
ELO
1604.4
62
ELO · Matches
64
1617.1
Current Team ELO
1604.4
1604.4
Current Opponent ELO
1617.1
12.71
Current ELO Difference
-12.71
0.52
Expected score
0.48
62
History Matches
64
0.09
Residual Mean
0.08
57.06
Overperformance
55.72
0.21
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.60
PPG
1.40
3.00
Goals for per game
2.00
0.60
Goals against per game
1.80
80.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
2.30
PPG
1.60
2.30
Goals for per game
1.80
1.20
Goals against per game
1.60
70.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.80
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.66
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.33
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.73
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.56
Overall performance9 signals 90
62
Matches
64
1.74
PPG
1.69
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
24.2%
Draw rate
18.8%
25.8%
Loss rate
31.3%
88.7%
Over 1.5 rate
73.4%
72.6%
Over 2.5 rate
56.3%
58.1%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
2.38
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
Venue performance10 signals 100
31
Matches
34
1.84
PPG
1.53
54.8%
Win rate
44.1%
19.4%
Draw rate
20.6%
25.8%
Loss rate
35.3%
87.1%
Over 1.5 rate
82.4%
71.0%
Over 2.5 rate
52.9%
54.8%
Over 3.5 rate
20.6%
2.53
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.84
31
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
2.16
Goals for per game
1.47
85.5%
Scoring rate
75.0%
62.9%
BTTS rate
48.4%
2.32
Goals for per game
1.44
87.1%
Scoring rate
67.6%
61.3%
BTTS rate
44.1%
62
History Matches
64
2.16
Goals Mean
1.47
1.60
Goals Std
1.22
85.5%
Scored 1+ rate
75.0%
59.7%
Scored 2+ rate
46.9%
40.3%
Scored 3+ rate
15.6%
2.32
Venue Goals Mean
1.44
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.53
Goals against per game
1.28
75.8%
Conceding rate
67.2%
1.32
Goals against per game
1.24
74.2%
Conceding rate
67.6%
62
History Matches
64
1.53
Conceded Mean
1.28
1.35
Conceded Std
1.18
40.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.2%
22.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.5%
1.32
Venue Conceded Mean
1.24
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
32.8%
14.5%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
12.9%
Failed-to-score rate
32.4%
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
32.8%
14.5%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
25.8%
Clean-sheet rate
32.4%
12.9%
Failed-to-score rate
32.4%
24.2%
Clean-sheet rate
32.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
62
History Matches
64
0.95
Result entropy
0.93
2.38
Goal Difference Std
1.69
5.38
Stability score
6.80
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
62
Eligible Matches
64
26
Lead Matches
22
88.5%
Lead Win Rate
90.9%
0.92
Lead Points Retention
0.92
19
Trailing Matches
20
31.6%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
5.3%
Trailing Win Rate
5.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
62
Halftime Coverage Matches
64
1.08
First Half Goals For Mean
0.64
0.76
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.59
1.08
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.77
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
78.21
Rest days
75.99
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
3
2.25
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.00
36
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.64
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.91
21
Long Rest History Matches
28
1.86
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.46
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
7
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.78
Portability PPG Std
0.43
2.06
Portability PPG Range
1.13
39.19
Portability Score
53.73
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
62
Clean History Matches
64
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO12.71
PPG0.05
GF0.69
GA0.25
PPG0.31
PPG1.20
PPG0.70
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate-0.10
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.07
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.69
Goals Std0.37
Scored 1+ rate10.5%
Scored 2+ rate12.8%
Scored 3+ rate24.7%
Venue Goals Mean0.88
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.56
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.25
Conceded Std0.17
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate10.1%
Venue Conceded Mean0.09
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.13
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.68
Stability score-1.41
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.44
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate6.6%
Trailing Win Rate0.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean0.44
First Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean0.25
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.09
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.35
Portability PPG Range0.94
Portability Score-14.55
Rest days2.22
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match0.25
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.27
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.39
Current Team ELO12.71
Current Opponent ELO-12.71
Current ELO Difference25.41
Expected score0.04
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.34
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.23
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
1899 Hoffenheim
L
Werder Bremen2–01899 Hoffenheim31 Oct · away
Pick: Werder Bremen 44% · hit W
1899 Hoffenheim3–0Bayer Leverkusen25 Oct · home
Pick: Bayer Leverkusen 53% · missed W
1899 Hoffenheim3–0Lyon22 Oct · home
Pick: Lyon 53% · missed W
Borussia Mönchengladbach1–21899 Hoffenheim18 Oct · away
Pick: Borussia Mönchengladbach 50% · missed L
1899 Hoffenheim2–3Beşiktaş15 Oct · home
Pick: Beşiktaş 49% · hit FC Schalke 04
L
FC Schalke 040–2RB Leipzig31 Oct · home
Pick: RB Leipzig 43% · hit L
Dynamo Dresden2–0FC Schalke 0428 Oct · away
Pick: Dynamo Dresden 53% · hit D
1. FC Köln0–0FC Schalke 0424 Oct · away
Pick: FC Schalke 04 44% · missed L
FC Schalke 040–1FSV Mainz 0517 Oct · home
Pick: FSV Mainz 05 50% · hit L
FC Augsburg3–0FC Schalke 0430 Aug · away
Pick: FC Schalke 04 42% · missed About this match
1899 Hoffenheim and FC Schalke 04 meet in Bundesliga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 18:30 UTC. The match is played at SNP Arena, Sinsheim. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: 1899 Hoffenheim win 36.3%, draw 24.6%, FC Schalke 04 win 39.1%. The pick is FC Schalke 04 win. Over 2.5 goals: 65.0%. Both teams to score: 60.3%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.