ScoreProb
2. Frauen Bundesliga Germany Round 11 2026

SC Sand W vs SGS Essen W

SC Sand W Home · Elo 1,601
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
SGS Essen W Away · Elo 1,466
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: SC Sand W win
SC Sand W winPick
55.1%
Draw
20.0%
SGS Essen W win
25.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes57.5%
No42.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.566.3%
Under 2.533.7%

How much we know

SC Sand W history43 matches
SGS Essen W history42 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (55.1%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why SC Sand W are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • SC Sand W are rated 135 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,601 against 1,466. On rating alone SC Sand W would be expected to take 69% of the points on offer.

  • SC Sand W score far more

    2.23 goals a game over 43 matches for SC Sand W, against 1.07 over 42 for SGS Essen W.

  • SC Sand W concede fewer

    SC Sand W concede 1.19 a game, SGS Essen W 2.00.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    65% of SC Sand W matches, against 62% for SGS Essen W. The model puts this match at 66% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
SC Sand W
SGS Essen W
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1601.1
ELO
1465.7
43
ELO · Matches
42
1601.1
Current Team ELO
1465.7
1465.7
Current Opponent ELO
1601.1
135.4
Current ELO Difference
-135.4
0.69
Expected score
0.31
43
History Matches
42
0.10
Residual Mean
-0.04
57.12
Overperformance
47.12
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.00
3.00
Goals for per game
2.00
1.20
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.30
2.20
Goals for per game
1.50
1.10
Goals against per game
2.50
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.72
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.57
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.50
0.94
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.43
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.34
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.68
Overall performance9 signals
90
43
Matches
42
2.09
PPG
1.02
65.1%
Win rate
26.2%
14.0%
Draw rate
23.8%
20.9%
Loss rate
50.0%
88.4%
Over 1.5 rate
76.2%
65.1%
Over 2.5 rate
61.9%
41.9%
Over 3.5 rate
38.1%
2.74
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.36
Venue performance10 signals
100
19
Matches
22
2.37
PPG
0.91
73.7%
Win rate
22.7%
15.8%
Draw rate
22.7%
10.5%
Loss rate
54.5%
94.7%
Over 1.5 rate
81.8%
68.4%
Over 2.5 rate
63.6%
36.8%
Over 3.5 rate
27.3%
2.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.18
19
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.23
Goals for per game
1.07
90.7%
Scoring rate
61.9%
51.2%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.63
Goals for per game
0.91
94.7%
Scoring rate
63.6%
42.1%
BTTS rate
50.0%
2.00
Goals for per game
3.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
43
History Matches
42
2.23
Goals Mean
1.07
1.71
Goals Std
1.16
90.7%
Scored 1+ rate
61.9%
58.1%
Scored 2+ rate
26.2%
34.9%
Scored 3+ rate
11.9%
2.63
Venue Goals Mean
0.91
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.19
Goals against per game
2.00
60.5%
Conceding rate
76.2%
0.74
Goals against per game
1.95
47.4%
Conceding rate
77.3%
1.33
Goals against per game
1.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
43
History Matches
42
1.19
Conceded Mean
2.00
1.54
Conceded Std
1.84
23.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
50.0%
14.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
33.3%
0.74
Venue Conceded Mean
1.95
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
39.5%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
9.3%
Failed-to-score rate
38.1%
52.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
5.3%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
39.5%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
9.3%
Failed-to-score rate
38.1%
52.6%
Clean-sheet rate
22.7%
5.3%
Failed-to-score rate
36.4%
39.5%
Clean-sheet rate
23.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
43
History Matches
42
0.80
Result entropy
0.95
2.74
Goal Difference Std
2.36
19.76
Stability score
5.41
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
43
Eligible Matches
42
22
Lead Matches
8
95.5%
Lead Win Rate
75.0%
0.97
Lead Points Retention
0.79
8
Trailing Matches
17
12.5%
Non-loss rate
5.9%
12.5%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
43
Halftime Coverage Matches
42
1.12
First Half Goals For Mean
0.48
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.98
1.12
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.60
0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.02
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
77.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
23
Normal Rest History Matches
18
1.78
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.78
18
Long Rest History Matches
23
2.39
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.22
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.00
PPG
3.00
66.7%
Win rate
100.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
33.3%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.82
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.00
Current Competition PPG
3.00
0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.00
5
Competition Season Count
4
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.08
Portability PPG Std
0.90
0.20
Portability PPG Range
2.38
85.83
Portability Score
35.83
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
43
Clean History Matches
42
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO135.4
PPG1.07
GF1.16
GA-0.81
PPG-1.00
PPG1.46
PPG0.00
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate15.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.29
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate29.9%
Failed-to-score rate-0.31
History Matches1
Goals Mean1.16
Goals Std0.55
Scored 1+ rate28.8%
Scored 2+ rate31.9%
Scored 3+ rate23.0%
Venue Goals Mean1.72
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std0.16
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.81
Conceded Std-0.29
Clean-sheet rate15.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.27
Conceded 3+ rate-0.19
Venue Conceded Mean-1.22
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.49
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.14
Goal Difference Std0.38
Stability score14.35
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.34
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches14
Lead Win Rate20.5%
Lead Points Retention0.18
Trailing Matches-9
Non-loss rate6.6%
Trailing Win Rate12.5%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean0.64
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.51
Second Half Goals For Mean0.52
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.30
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.33
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.81
Portability PPG Range-2.18
Portability Score49.99
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.00
Long Rest History Matches-5
Long Rest Points Per Match1.17
Current Team ELO135.4
Current Opponent ELO-135.4
Current ELO Difference270.8
Expected score0.37
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.15
Overperformance10.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.05

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

SC Sand W

L
Ingolstadt W2–0SC Sand W25 Oct · away
Pick: SC Sand W 45% · missed
D
SC Sand W2–2Hertha Berlin W18 Oct · home
Pick: SC Sand W 66% · missed
W
Carl Zeiss Jena W0–1SC Sand W4 Oct · away
Pick: SC Sand W 52% · hit
L
SC Sand W0–3Bochum W30 Aug · home
Pick: SC Sand W 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

SGS Essen W

L
Stuttgart W3–0SGS Essen W30 Oct · away
Pick: Stuttgart W 48% · hit
W
SGS Essen W6–0Bochum W24 Oct · home
Pick: Bochum W 48% · missed
W
Andernach W1–6SGS Essen W18 Oct · away
Pick: Andernach W 39% · missed
D
SGS Essen W1–1Meppen W4 Oct · home
Pick: Meppen W 39% · missed
W
SGS Essen W5–1Borussia Monchengladbach W30 Aug · home
Pick: SGS Essen W 59% · hit

About this match

SC Sand W and SGS Essen W meet in 2. Frauen Bundesliga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: SC Sand W win 55.1%, draw 20.0%, SGS Essen W win 25.0%. The pick is SC Sand W win. Over 2.5 goals: 66.3%. Both teams to score: 57.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.