ScoreProb
Major League Soccer United States Round 34 2026

Seattle Sounders vs Los Angeles FC

Seattle Sounders Home · Elo 1,539
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Los Angeles FC Away · Elo 1,616
Lumen Field, Seattle Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Los Angeles FC win
Seattle Sounders win
34.4%
Draw
18.8%
Los Angeles FC winPick
46.8%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.1%
No44.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.560.5%
Under 2.539.5%

How much we know

Seattle Sounders history77 matches
Los Angeles FC history80 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 15 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 00:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Los Angeles FC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Los Angeles FC are rated 76 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,616 against 1,539. On rating alone Los Angeles FC would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.74 goals a game over 77 matches for Seattle Sounders, against 1.75 over 80 for Los Angeles FC.

  • Los Angeles FC concede fewer

    Seattle Sounders concede 1.35 a game, Los Angeles FC 1.03.

  • Seattle Sounders games more often go over 2.5 goals

    60% of Seattle Sounders matches, against 51% for Los Angeles FC. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Seattle Sounders
Los Angeles FC
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1539.1
ELO
1615.5
77
ELO · Matches
80
1539.1
Current Team ELO
1615.5
1615.5
Current Opponent ELO
1539.1
-76.44
Current ELO Difference
76.44
0.39
Expected score
0.61
77
History Matches
80
0.03
Residual Mean
0.08
52.34
Overperformance
56.45
-0.41
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
1.20
1.00
Goals for per game
0.80
1.60
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.40
PPG
1.90
0.80
Goals for per game
1.60
2.00
Goals against per game
0.60
10.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.20
2.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.60
1.34
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.49
0.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.78
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.48
Overall performance9 signals
90
77
Matches
80
1.65
PPG
1.84
46.8%
Win rate
52.5%
24.7%
Draw rate
26.3%
28.6%
Loss rate
21.3%
79.2%
Over 1.5 rate
73.8%
59.7%
Over 2.5 rate
51.3%
39.0%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
2.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.74
Venue performance10 signals
100
41
Matches
35
2.07
PPG
1.49
61.0%
Win rate
40.0%
24.4%
Draw rate
28.6%
14.6%
Loss rate
31.4%
82.9%
Over 1.5 rate
82.9%
65.9%
Over 2.5 rate
65.7%
46.3%
Over 3.5 rate
42.9%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.82
41
History Matches
35
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.74
Goals for per game
1.75
75.3%
Scoring rate
88.8%
53.2%
BTTS rate
52.5%
2.07
Goals for per game
1.80
85.4%
Scoring rate
88.6%
61.0%
BTTS rate
65.7%
1.11
Goals for per game
1.75
72.2%
Scoring rate
85.0%
55.6%
BTTS rate
40.0%
77
History Matches
80
1.74
Goals Mean
1.75
1.53
Goals Std
1.27
75.3%
Scored 1+ rate
88.8%
46.8%
Scored 2+ rate
48.8%
32.5%
Scored 3+ rate
22.5%
2.07
Venue Goals Mean
1.80
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.35
Goals against per game
1.03
71.4%
Conceding rate
61.3%
1.20
Goals against per game
1.49
68.3%
Conceding rate
74.3%
1.39
Goals against per game
0.85
77.8%
Conceding rate
45.0%
77
History Matches
80
1.35
Conceded Mean
1.03
1.17
Conceded Std
1.11
41.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.3%
16.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.0%
1.20
Venue Conceded Mean
1.49
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
38.8%
24.7%
Failed-to-score rate
11.3%
31.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.7%
14.6%
Failed-to-score rate
11.4%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
55.0%
27.8%
Failed-to-score rate
15.0%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
38.8%
24.7%
Failed-to-score rate
11.3%
31.7%
Clean-sheet rate
25.7%
14.6%
Failed-to-score rate
11.4%
28.6%
Clean-sheet rate
38.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
77
History Matches
80
0.96
Result entropy
0.93
2.01
Goal Difference Std
1.74
3.63
Stability score
7.29
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
76
Eligible Matches
78
24
Lead Matches
26
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
88.5%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.92
21
Trailing Matches
18
28.6%
Non-loss rate
44.4%
9.5%
Trailing Win Rate
5.6%
Goal timing5 signals
50
76
Halftime Coverage Matches
78
0.76
First Half Goals For Mean
0.83
0.64
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
0.93
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.94
0.68
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.53
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.02
Rest days
76.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
10
Short Rest History Matches
10
1.40
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
42
Normal Rest History Matches
45
1.60
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.73
24
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.79
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.13
Competition & season17 signals
170
18
Matches
20
1.22
PPG
1.75
33.3%
Win rate
50.0%
22.2%
Draw rate
25.0%
44.4%
Loss rate
25.0%
72.2%
Over 1.5 rate
70.0%
38.9%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
22.2%
Over 3.5 rate
30.0%
1.63
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.02
18
Current Competition Matches
20
1.22
Current Competition PPG
1.75
-0.28
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.90
9
Competition Season Count
9
9
Eligible Competition Season Count
8
0.76
Portability PPG Std
0.45
2.67
Portability PPG Range
1.50
39.64
Portability Score
52.74
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
77
Clean History Matches
80
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-76.44
PPG-0.19
GF-0.01
GA0.33
PPG-0.53
PPG0.59
PPG-0.40
PPG-1.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate13.4%
History Matches6
Clean-sheet rate6.0%
Failed-to-score rate3.2%
History Matches-3
Goals Mean-0.01
Goals Std0.26
Scored 1+ rate-0.13
Scored 2+ rate-0.02
Scored 3+ rate10.0%
Venue Goals Mean0.27
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.33
History Matches-3
Conceded Mean0.33
Conceded Std0.06
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Conceded 2+ rate15.3%
Conceded 3+ rate6.9%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.29
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.85
History Matches-3
Result entropy0.04
Goal Difference Std0.27
Stability score-3.66
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.28
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.29
Eligible Matches-2
Lead Matches-2
Lead Win Rate-0.13
Lead Points Retention-0.10
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate-0.16
Trailing Win Rate4.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Second Half Goals For Mean0.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Current Competition Matches-2
Current Competition PPG-0.53
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.18
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.31
Portability PPG Range1.17
Portability Score-13.10
Rest days0.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-0.10
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.14
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Current Team ELO-76.44
Current Opponent ELO76.44
Current ELO Difference-152.9
Expected score-0.22
History Matches-3
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-4.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.49

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Seattle Sounders

L
Seattle Sounders0–1Houston Dynamo29 Oct · home
Pick: Houston Dynamo 43% · hit
D
San Diego2–2Seattle Sounders25 Oct · away
Pick: San Diego 46% · missed
D
Seattle Sounders1–1CF Montreal18 Oct · home
Pick: Seattle Sounders 61% · missed
L
FC Dallas1–0Seattle Sounders15 Oct · away
Pick: FC Dallas 39% · hit
D
Seattle Sounders2–2Chicago Fire29 Aug · home
Pick: Chicago Fire 43% · missed

Los Angeles FC

L
Los Angeles FC1–3Minnesota United FC2 Nov · home
Pick: Los Angeles FC 56% · missed
D
Los Angeles FC2–2Los Angeles Galaxy26 Oct · home
Pick: Los Angeles FC 54% · missed
D
New York City FC1–1Los Angeles FC17 Oct · away
Pick: Los Angeles FC 47% · missed
W
Los Angeles FC3–1Austin15 Oct · home
Pick: Los Angeles FC 70% · hit
D
DC United0–0Los Angeles FC29 Aug · away
Pick: Los Angeles FC 48% · missed

About this match

Seattle Sounders and Los Angeles FC meet in Major League Soccer on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 00:00 UTC. The match is played at Lumen Field, Seattle. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Seattle Sounders win 34.4%, draw 18.8%, Los Angeles FC win 46.8%. The pick is Los Angeles FC win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.5%. Both teams to score: 55.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.