ScoreProb
Liga 2 Indonesia Round 9 2026

Semen Padang vs Bekasi City

Semen Padang Home · Elo 1,386
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Bekasi City Away · Elo 1,545
Stadion GOR Haji Agus Salim, Padang Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Bekasi City win
Semen Padang win
33.3%
Draw
24.1%
Bekasi City winPick
42.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.7%
No54.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.551.5%
Under 2.548.5%

How much we know

Semen Padang history49 matches
Bekasi City history30 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Bekasi City are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Bekasi City are rated 159 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,545 against 1,386. On rating alone Bekasi City would be expected to take 71% of the points on offer.

  • Bekasi City score far more

    0.90 goals a game over 49 matches for Semen Padang, against 1.47 over 30 for Bekasi City.

  • Bekasi City concede fewer

    Semen Padang concede 1.82 a game, Bekasi City 1.00.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    45% of Semen Padang matches, against 43% for Bekasi City. The model puts this match at 51% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Semen Padang
Bekasi City
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1386.3
ELO
1545.2
49
ELO · Matches
30
1386.3
Current Team ELO
1545.2
1545.2
Current Opponent ELO
1386.3
-158.9
Current ELO Difference
158.9
0.29
Expected score
0.71
49
History Matches
30
-0.12
Residual Mean
0.07
41.75
Overperformance
54.47
-0.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.00
PPG
1.60
0.00
Goals for per game
2.00
3.00
Goals against per game
1.60
0.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
0.30
PPG
1.70
0.30
Goals for per game
1.50
2.40
Goals against per game
1.50
10.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
0.64
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.92
2.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.50
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.20
0.30
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.61
Overall performance9 signals
90
49
Matches
30
0.88
PPG
1.63
22.4%
Win rate
43.3%
20.4%
Draw rate
33.3%
57.1%
Loss rate
23.3%
79.6%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
44.9%
Over 2.5 rate
43.3%
22.4%
Over 3.5 rate
26.7%
1.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.86
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
15
1.00
PPG
1.20
25.0%
Win rate
26.7%
25.0%
Draw rate
40.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
79.2%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
41.7%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
26.7%
1.90
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
24
History Matches
15
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.90
Goals for per game
1.47
57.1%
Scoring rate
76.7%
42.9%
BTTS rate
53.3%
0.96
Goals for per game
1.07
66.7%
Scoring rate
66.7%
50.0%
BTTS rate
46.7%
49
History Matches
30
0.90
Goals Mean
1.47
0.97
Goals Std
1.52
57.1%
Scored 1+ rate
76.7%
24.5%
Scored 2+ rate
30.0%
6.1%
Scored 3+ rate
20.0%
0.96
Venue Goals Mean
1.07
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.82
Goals against per game
1.00
81.6%
Conceding rate
63.3%
1.71
Goals against per game
1.13
79.2%
Conceding rate
60.0%
49
History Matches
30
1.82
Conceded Mean
1.00
1.52
Conceded Std
1.00
53.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
26.7%
24.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
6.7%
1.71
Venue Conceded Mean
1.13
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
18.4%
Clean-sheet rate
36.7%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
18.4%
Clean-sheet rate
36.7%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
23.3%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
40.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
18.4%
Clean-sheet rate
36.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
49
History Matches
30
0.89
Result entropy
0.97
1.97
Goal Difference Std
1.86
10.84
Stability score
2.77
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
30
8
Lead Matches
13
25.0%
Lead Win Rate
69.2%
0.46
Lead Points Retention
0.79
24
Trailing Matches
4
12.5%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
4.2%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
30
0.29
First Half Goals For Mean
0.80
0.71
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
0.61
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
1.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.67
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
169.1
Rest days
190.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
30
Normal Rest History Matches
19
0.87
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.95
18
Long Rest History Matches
10
0.78
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.10
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.47
Portability PPG Std
0.21
0.95
Portability PPG Range
0.42
51.41
Portability Score
70.27
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
49
Clean History Matches
30
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-158.9
PPG-0.76
GF-0.57
GA0.82
PPG-0.20
PPG-1.60
PPG-1.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches19
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Failed-to-score rate19.5%
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate-0.19
Failed-to-score rate0.0%
History Matches19
Goals Mean-0.57
Goals Std-0.55
Scored 1+ rate-0.20
Scored 2+ rate-0.06
Scored 3+ rate-0.14
Venue Goals Mean-0.11
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.28
History Matches19
Conceded Mean0.82
Conceded Std0.52
Clean-sheet rate-0.18
Conceded 2+ rate26.4%
Conceded 3+ rate17.8%
Venue Conceded Mean0.58
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.60
History Matches19
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std0.11
Stability score8.07
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.64
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.55
Eligible Matches19
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate-0.44
Lead Points Retention-0.34
Trailing Matches20
Non-loss rate12.5%
Trailing Win Rate4.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches19
First Half Goals For Mean-0.51
First Half Goals Against Mean0.38
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.05
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.44
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.26
Portability PPG Range0.52
Portability Score-18.86
Rest days-21.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches11
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.08
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.32
Current Team ELO-158.9
Current Opponent ELO158.9
Current ELO Difference-317.8
Expected score-0.43
History Matches19
Residual Mean-0.19
Overperformance-12.73
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.33

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Semen Padang

W
Semen Padang1–0Sumsel United30 Oct · home
Pick: Semen Padang 40% · hit
W
Persiku Kudus1–2Semen Padang24 Oct · away
Pick: Persiku Kudus 41% · missed
D
Semen Padang1–1PSMS Medan17 Oct · home
Pick: PSMS Medan 41% · missed
L
Semen Padang0–1PSPS4 Oct · home
Pick: PSPS 44% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Bekasi City

D
Bekasi City1–1PSPS31 Oct · home
Pick: Bekasi City 45% · missed
D
Bekasi City1–1Sumsel United24 Oct · home
Pick: Bekasi City 54% · missed
D
Persiraja Banda Aceh0–0Bekasi City17 Oct · away
Pick: Persiraja Banda Aceh 34% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Semen Padang and Bekasi City meet in Liga 2 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at Stadion GOR Haji Agus Salim, Padang. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Semen Padang win 33.3%, draw 24.1%, Bekasi City win 42.6%. The pick is Bekasi City win. Over 2.5 goals: 51.5%. Both teams to score: 45.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.