ScoreProb
Third League - Southwest Bulgaria Southwest - 16 2026

Septemvri Simitli vs Septemvri Sofia II

Septemvri Simitli Home · Elo 1,530
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Septemvri Sofia II Away · Elo 1,528
National Stadium Vasil Levski, Sofia Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Septemvri Simitli win
Septemvri Simitli winPick
45.8%
Draw
29.1%
Septemvri Sofia II win
25.1%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes50.7%
No49.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.5%
Under 2.554.5%

How much we know

Septemvri Simitli history53 matches
Septemvri Sofia II history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

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Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Septemvri Simitli are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,530 against 1,528. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.26 goals a game over 53 matches for Septemvri Simitli, against 1.27 over 49 for Septemvri Sofia II.

  • Defences are close

    Septemvri Simitli concede 1.17 a game, Septemvri Sofia II 1.22.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    43% of Septemvri Simitli matches, against 47% for Septemvri Sofia II. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Septemvri Simitli
Septemvri Sofia II@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1529.9
ELO
1528.5
53
ELO · Matches
49
1529.9
Current Team ELO
1528.5
1528.5
Current Opponent ELO
1529.9
1.44
Current ELO Difference
-1.44
0.50
Expected score
0.50
53
History Matches
49
0.02
Residual Mean
0.03
51.39
Overperformance
52.23
0.22
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.00
1.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.00
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.00
PPG
1.80
1.90
Goals for per game
1.50
0.80
Goals against per game
0.80
60.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.50
1.22
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.36
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.25
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.98
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.70
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.62
Overall performance9 signals
90
53
Matches
49
1.47
PPG
1.41
41.5%
Win rate
36.7%
22.6%
Draw rate
30.6%
35.8%
Loss rate
32.7%
67.9%
Over 1.5 rate
67.3%
43.4%
Over 2.5 rate
46.9%
22.6%
Over 3.5 rate
28.6%
1.66
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.81
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
24
2.00
PPG
0.92
58.3%
Win rate
20.8%
25.0%
Draw rate
29.2%
16.7%
Loss rate
50.0%
62.5%
Over 1.5 rate
79.2%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
54.2%
16.7%
Over 3.5 rate
29.2%
1.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.79
24
History Matches
24
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.26
Goals for per game
1.27
67.9%
Scoring rate
63.3%
45.3%
BTTS rate
44.9%
1.46
Goals for per game
1.00
75.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
41.7%
BTTS rate
54.2%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.25
75.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
53
History Matches
49
1.26
Goals Mean
1.27
1.17
Goals Std
1.29
67.9%
Scored 1+ rate
63.3%
37.7%
Scored 2+ rate
36.7%
15.1%
Scored 3+ rate
18.4%
1.46
Venue Goals Mean
1.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.17
Goals against per game
1.22
64.2%
Conceding rate
65.3%
0.75
Goals against per game
1.75
50.0%
Conceding rate
79.2%
1.25
Goals against per game
1.00
50.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
53
History Matches
49
1.17
Conceded Mean
1.22
1.22
Conceded Std
1.23
34.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
34.7%
11.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.3%
0.75
Venue Conceded Mean
1.75
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
35.8%
Clean-sheet rate
34.7%
32.1%
Failed-to-score rate
36.7%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
35.8%
Clean-sheet rate
34.7%
32.1%
Failed-to-score rate
36.7%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
20.8%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
35.8%
Clean-sheet rate
34.7%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
53
History Matches
49
0.97
Result entropy
1.00
1.66
Goal Difference Std
1.81
2.69
Stability score
0.26
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
25
Eligible Matches
24
6
Lead Matches
9
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.78
6
Trailing Matches
3
33.3%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
16.7%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
25
Halftime Coverage Matches
24
0.40
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.40
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.33
0.60
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.36
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.88
Rest days
76.88
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
3
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.67
34
Normal Rest History Matches
33
1.32
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.52
15
Long Rest History Matches
12
1.80
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.42
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.75
PPG
1.75
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.48
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.83
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.75
Current Competition PPG
1.75
0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.25
5
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.17
Portability PPG Std
0.18
0.42
Portability PPG Range
0.42
74.23
Portability Score
73.23
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
53
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO1.44
PPG0.06
GF0.00
GA-0.05
PPG0.00
PPG1.08
PPG0.00
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate1.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate29.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.08
History Matches4
Goals Mean0.00
Goals Std-0.12
Scored 1+ rate4.7%
Scored 2+ rate1.0%
Scored 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Goals Mean0.46
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.14
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.05
Conceded Std-0.01
Clean-sheet rate1.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.00
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.27
History Matches4
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std-0.14
Stability score2.43
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.08
Eligible Matches1
Lead Matches-3
Lead Win Rate22.2%
Lead Points Retention0.22
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate0.0%
Trailing Win Rate16.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches1
First Half Goals For Mean-0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean0.07
Second Half Goals For Mean0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.01
Portability PPG Range0.00
Portability Score0.99
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match1.33
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.19
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.38
Current Team ELO1.44
Current Opponent ELO-1.44
Current ELO Difference2.88
Expected score0.00
History Matches4
Residual Mean-0.01
Overperformance-0.84
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.10

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Septemvri Simitli

D
Botev Ihtiman2–2Septemvri Simitli24 Oct · away
Pick: Botev Ihtiman 37% · missed
D
Septemvri Simitli3–3Natsional Sofia29 Aug · home
Pick: Septemvri Simitli 74% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Septemvri Sofia II

L
Septemvri Sofia II0–1Bansko24 Oct · home
Pick: Bansko 36% · hit
W
Natsional Sofia1–2Septemvri Sofia II7 Oct · away
Pick: Septemvri Sofia II 54% · hit
L
Septemvri Sofia II1–2Slivnishki geroy29 Aug · home
Pick: Septemvri Sofia II 51% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Septemvri Simitli and Septemvri Sofia II meet in Third League - Southwest on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. The match is played at National Stadium Vasil Levski, Sofia. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Septemvri Simitli win 45.8%, draw 29.1%, Septemvri Sofia II win 25.1%. The pick is Septemvri Simitli win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.5%. Both teams to score: 50.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.