ScoreProb
League Two China Promotion Group - 30 2026

Shenzhen 2028 vs Shanghai Port II

Shenzhen 2028 Home · Elo 1,567
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Shanghai Port II Away · Elo 1,522
Shenzhen Youth Football Training Base Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Shenzhen 2028 win
Shenzhen 2028 winPick
45.4%
Draw
28.0%
Shanghai Port II win
26.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.5%
No51.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.545.5%
Under 2.554.5%

How much we know

Shenzhen 2028 history55 matches
Shanghai Port II history52 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 21 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 06:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Shenzhen 2028 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Shenzhen 2028 are rated 46 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,567 against 1,522. On rating alone Shenzhen 2028 would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.36 goals a game over 55 matches for Shenzhen 2028, against 1.31 over 52 for Shanghai Port II.

  • Defences are close

    Shenzhen 2028 concede 1.02 a game, Shanghai Port II 0.98.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    44% of Shenzhen 2028 matches, against 38% for Shanghai Port II. The model puts this match at 45% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Shenzhen 2028
Shanghai Port II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1567.3
ELO
1521.5
55
ELO · Matches
52
1567.3
Current Team ELO
1521.5
1521.5
Current Opponent ELO
1567.3
45.76
Current ELO Difference
-45.76
0.57
Expected score
0.43
55
History Matches
52
0.06
Residual Mean
0.02
54.17
Overperformance
51.47
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.10
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.20
1.80
Goals for per game
1.00
0.80
Goals against per game
1.20
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
1.30
1.80
Goals for per game
1.60
0.80
Goals against per game
1.30
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.60
1.78
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.43
0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.95
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.79
Overall performance9 signals
90
55
Matches
52
1.78
PPG
1.48
50.9%
Win rate
40.4%
25.5%
Draw rate
26.9%
23.6%
Loss rate
32.7%
70.9%
Over 1.5 rate
65.4%
43.6%
Over 2.5 rate
38.5%
21.8%
Over 3.5 rate
17.3%
1.84
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.65
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
26
1.81
PPG
1.62
51.9%
Win rate
46.2%
25.9%
Draw rate
23.1%
22.2%
Loss rate
30.8%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
61.5%
51.9%
Over 2.5 rate
26.9%
29.6%
Over 3.5 rate
11.5%
1.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.57
27
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.36
Goals for per game
1.31
70.9%
Scoring rate
71.2%
43.6%
BTTS rate
44.2%
1.67
Goals for per game
1.31
70.4%
Scoring rate
73.1%
51.9%
BTTS rate
38.5%
1.68
Goals for per game
1.64
72.7%
Scoring rate
77.3%
59.1%
BTTS rate
45.5%
55
History Matches
52
1.36
Goals Mean
1.31
1.26
Goals Std
1.29
70.9%
Scored 1+ rate
71.2%
41.8%
Scored 2+ rate
38.5%
14.5%
Scored 3+ rate
7.7%
1.67
Venue Goals Mean
1.31
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.02
Goals against per game
0.98
63.6%
Conceding rate
63.5%
1.00
Goals against per game
0.85
70.4%
Conceding rate
61.5%
1.14
Goals against per game
0.86
77.3%
Conceding rate
59.1%
55
History Matches
52
1.02
Conceded Mean
0.98
1.09
Conceded Std
0.97
23.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
25.0%
9.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
7.7%
1.00
Venue Conceded Mean
0.85
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
36.5%
29.1%
Failed-to-score rate
28.8%
29.6%
Clean-sheet rate
38.5%
29.6%
Failed-to-score rate
26.9%
22.7%
Clean-sheet rate
40.9%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
22.7%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
36.5%
29.1%
Failed-to-score rate
28.8%
29.6%
Clean-sheet rate
38.5%
29.6%
Failed-to-score rate
26.9%
36.4%
Clean-sheet rate
36.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
55
History Matches
52
0.94
Result entropy
0.99
1.84
Goal Difference Std
1.65
5.98
Stability score
1.24
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
55
Eligible Matches
52
15
Lead Matches
16
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
87.5%
0.84
Lead Points Retention
0.92
10
Trailing Matches
17
10.0%
Non-loss rate
41.2%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
11.8%
Goal timing5 signals
50
55
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
0.60
First Half Goals For Mean
0.63
0.49
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
0.76
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.53
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.35
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.79
Rest days
77.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
1
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
36
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.97
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.38
18
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.33
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.67
Competition & season17 signals
170
22
Matches
22
1.68
PPG
1.82
45.5%
Win rate
54.5%
31.8%
Draw rate
18.2%
22.7%
Loss rate
27.3%
77.3%
Over 1.5 rate
63.6%
59.1%
Over 2.5 rate
45.5%
36.4%
Over 3.5 rate
22.7%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
22
Current Competition Matches
22
1.68
Current Competition PPG
1.82
0.55
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.77
4
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.11
Portability PPG Std
0.29
0.21
Portability PPG Range
0.58
82.32
Portability Score
63.10
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
55
Clean History Matches
52
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO45.76
PPG0.30
GF0.06
GA0.04
PPG-0.14
PPG0.20
PPG0.20
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Failed-to-score rate0.2%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate2.7%
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.06
Goals Std-0.04
Scored 1+ rate0.00
Scored 2+ rate3.4%
Scored 3+ rate6.9%
Venue Goals Mean0.36
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.35
History Matches3
Conceded Mean0.04
Conceded Std0.12
Clean-sheet rate0.00
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate1.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.15
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.40
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.19
Stability score4.74
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.08
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.16
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches-7
Non-loss rate-0.31
Trailing Win Rate-0.12
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.03
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.18
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.14
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-0.23
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.19
Portability PPG Range-0.37
Portability Score19.23
Rest days-1.15
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest History Matches4
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.60
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Current Team ELO45.76
Current Opponent ELO-45.76
Current ELO Difference91.53
Expected score0.13
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance2.70
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Shenzhen 2028

L
Shandong Taishan II3–2Shenzhen 20281 Nov · away
Pick: Shandong Taishan II 39% · hit
D
Shenzhen 20281–1Dalian Kewei25 Oct · home
Pick: Shenzhen 2028 55% · missed
L
Xi'an Ronghai1–0Shenzhen 202817 Oct · away
Pick: Xi'an Ronghai 40% · hit
L
Shenzhen 20280–2Shandong Taishan II6 Oct · home
Pick: Shenzhen 2028 43% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Shanghai Port II

D
Shanghai Port II0–0Guizhou Zhucheng1 Nov · home
Pick: Shanghai Port II 37% · missed
L
Shanghai Port II2–3Langfang Glory City23 Oct · home
Pick: Shanghai Port II 45% · missed
D
Jiangxi Liansheng0–0Shanghai Port II17 Oct · away
Pick: Jiangxi Liansheng 40% · missed
L
Guizhou Zhucheng2–1Shanghai Port II6 Oct · away
Pick: Guizhou Zhucheng 46% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Shenzhen 2028 and Shanghai Port II meet in League Two on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 06:30 UTC. The match is played at Shenzhen Youth Football Training Base. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Shenzhen 2028 win 45.4%, draw 28.0%, Shanghai Port II win 26.7%. The pick is Shenzhen 2028 win. Over 2.5 goals: 45.5%. Both teams to score: 48.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.