ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 Spain Group 2 - 10 2026

Siero vs Avilés Stadium

Siero Home · Elo 1,470
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Avilés Stadium Away · Elo 1,437
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Siero win
Siero winPick
35.1%
Draw
29.9%
Avilés Stadium win
35.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes48.0%
No52.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.546.6%
Under 2.553.4%

How much we know

Siero history33 matches
Avilés Stadium history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 18:15 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (35.1%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,635 matches.

Why Siero are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Siero are rated 33 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,470 against 1,437. On rating alone Siero would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Siero score far more

    1.12 goals a game over 33 matches for Siero, against 0.66 over 50 for Avilés Stadium.

  • Defences are close

    Siero concede 1.42 a game, Avilés Stadium 1.46.

  • Siero games more often go over 2.5 goals

    45% of Siero matches, against 36% for Avilés Stadium. The model puts this match at 47% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 14 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Siero
Avilés Stadium
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1469.8
ELO
1437.1
33
ELO · Matches
50
1469.8
Current Team ELO
1437.1
1437.1
Current Opponent ELO
1469.8
32.77
Current ELO Difference
-32.77
0.55
Expected score
0.45
33
History Matches
50
-0.05
Residual Mean
-0.06
47.04
Overperformance
45.63
-0.14
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.20
0.80
Goals for per game
0.60
1.00
Goals against per game
2.20
60.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
0.90
0.70
Goals for per game
0.70
1.70
Goals against per game
1.20
30.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
0.70
0.64
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.90
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.20
1.62
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.47
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.79
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.86
Overall performance9 signals
90
33
Matches
50
1.21
PPG
0.92
33.3%
Win rate
18.0%
21.2%
Draw rate
38.0%
45.5%
Loss rate
44.0%
69.7%
Over 1.5 rate
60.0%
45.5%
Over 2.5 rate
36.0%
27.3%
Over 3.5 rate
22.0%
1.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.93
Venue performance10 signals
100
16
Matches
25
1.44
PPG
0.88
43.8%
Win rate
16.0%
12.5%
Draw rate
40.0%
43.8%
Loss rate
44.0%
81.3%
Over 1.5 rate
76.0%
56.3%
Over 2.5 rate
44.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
28.0%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.97
16
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.12
Goals for per game
0.66
69.7%
Scoring rate
44.0%
42.4%
BTTS rate
30.0%
1.38
Goals for per game
0.80
81.3%
Scoring rate
52.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
40.0%
33
History Matches
50
1.12
Goals Mean
0.66
0.95
Goals Std
0.84
69.7%
Scored 1+ rate
44.0%
33.3%
Scored 2+ rate
20.0%
9.1%
Scored 3+ rate
2.0%
1.38
Venue Goals Mean
0.80
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.42
Goals against per game
1.46
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.0%
1.31
Goals against per game
1.76
62.5%
Conceding rate
76.0%
33
History Matches
50
1.42
Conceded Mean
1.46
1.41
Conceded Std
1.60
42.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.0%
18.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.0%
1.31
Venue Conceded Mean
1.76
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
34.0%
30.3%
Failed-to-score rate
56.0%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.0%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
48.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
34.0%
30.3%
Failed-to-score rate
56.0%
37.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.0%
18.8%
Failed-to-score rate
48.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
34.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
33
History Matches
50
0.96
Result entropy
0.94
1.80
Goal Difference Std
1.93
4.11
Stability score
5.56
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
31
Eligible Matches
50
8
Lead Matches
9
62.5%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.75
Lead Points Retention
0.85
10
Trailing Matches
18
30.0%
Non-loss rate
11.1%
10.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
31
Halftime Coverage Matches
50
0.45
First Half Goals For Mean
0.28
0.68
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.58
0.61
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.38
0.74
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
181.1
Rest days
85.05
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
16
Normal Rest History Matches
26
0.94
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.96
16
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.56
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.78
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
3
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.05
—
Portability PPG Range
0.09
—
Portability Score
91.67
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
33
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO32.77
PPG0.29
GF0.46
GA-0.04
PPG0.56
PPG1.60
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-17
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.26
History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate13.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.29
History Matches-17
Goals Mean0.46
Goals Std0.11
Scored 1+ rate25.7%
Scored 2+ rate13.3%
Scored 3+ rate7.1%
Venue Goals Mean0.58
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.26
History Matches-17
Conceded Mean-0.04
Conceded Std-0.19
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate6.4%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Conceded Mean-0.45
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.15
History Matches-17
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.13
Stability score-1.45
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.12
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.07
Eligible Matches-19
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate-0.15
Lead Points Retention-0.10
Trailing Matches-8
Non-loss rate18.9%
Trailing Win Rate10.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-19
First Half Goals For Mean0.17
First Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean0.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-2
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days96.08
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-10
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.02
Long Rest History Matches-7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.78
Current Team ELO32.77
Current Opponent ELO-32.77
Current ELO Difference65.54
Expected score0.09
History Matches-17
Residual Mean0.01
Overperformance1.41
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.12

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Siero

L
Lealtad3–0Siero31 Oct · away
Pick: Lealtad 53% · hit
L
Siero1–2Sporting Gijón II24 Oct · home
Pick: Sporting Gijón II 48% · hit
L
Praviano4–1Siero18 Oct · away
Pick: Praviano 53% · hit
L
Covadonga2–1Siero4 Oct · away
Pick: Covadonga 70% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Avilés Stadium

D
Avilés Stadium1–1Colunga1 Nov · home
Pick: Avilés Stadium 44% · missed
L
Caudal2–1Avilés Stadium25 Oct · away
Pick: Caudal 67% · hit
D
Avilés Stadium0–0Langreo18 Oct · home
Pick: Langreo 40% · missed
L
Lealtad2–0Avilés Stadium4 Oct · away
Pick: Lealtad 54% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Siero and Avilés Stadium meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 18:15 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Siero win 35.1%, draw 29.9%, Avilés Stadium win 35.0%. The pick is Siero win. Over 2.5 goals: 46.6%. Both teams to score: 48.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.