ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 Spain Group 2 - 10 2026

Gijón Industrial vs Praviano

Gijón Industrial Home · Elo 1,458
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Praviano Away · Elo 1,486
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Praviano win
Gijón Industrial win
30.0%
Draw
27.4%
Praviano winPick
42.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes51.1%
No48.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.548.5%
Under 2.551.5%

How much we know

Gijón Industrial history33 matches
Praviano history49 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 17:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (42.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Praviano are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Praviano are rated 28 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,486 against 1,458. On rating alone Praviano would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.06 goals a game over 33 matches for Gijón Industrial, against 1.12 over 49 for Praviano.

  • Praviano concede fewer

    Gijón Industrial concede 1.64 a game, Praviano 1.16.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    39% of Gijón Industrial matches, against 39% for Praviano. The model puts this match at 48% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 10 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Gijón Industrial
Praviano
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1457.7
ELO
1486.0
33
ELO · Matches
49
1457.7
Current Team ELO
1486.0
1486.0
Current Opponent ELO
1457.7
-28.28
Current ELO Difference
28.28
0.46
Expected score
0.54
33
History Matches
49
-0.06
Residual Mean
-0.02
46.03
Overperformance
48.77
0.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
1.20
2.40
Goals for per game
1.20
1.60
Goals against per game
1.20
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.50
PPG
1.40
1.70
Goals for per game
1.30
1.50
Goals against per game
1.10
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
1.68
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
1.12
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.89
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.17
Overall performance9 signals
90
33
Matches
49
0.97
PPG
1.33
21.2%
Win rate
34.7%
33.3%
Draw rate
28.6%
45.5%
Loss rate
36.7%
75.8%
Over 1.5 rate
61.2%
39.4%
Over 2.5 rate
38.8%
27.3%
Over 3.5 rate
26.5%
1.72
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
Venue performance10 signals
100
16
Matches
25
1.25
PPG
1.40
31.3%
Win rate
40.0%
31.3%
Draw rate
20.0%
37.5%
Loss rate
40.0%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
68.0%
43.8%
Over 2.5 rate
40.0%
31.3%
Over 3.5 rate
24.0%
1.60
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.58
16
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.06
Goals for per game
1.12
63.6%
Scoring rate
65.3%
54.5%
BTTS rate
44.9%
1.44
Goals for per game
1.16
75.0%
Scoring rate
76.0%
68.8%
BTTS rate
52.0%
33
History Matches
49
1.06
Goals Mean
1.12
1.25
Goals Std
1.12
63.6%
Scored 1+ rate
65.3%
21.2%
Scored 2+ rate
28.6%
12.1%
Scored 3+ rate
14.3%
1.44
Venue Goals Mean
1.16
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.64
Goals against per game
1.16
84.8%
Conceding rate
69.4%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.28
87.5%
Conceding rate
76.0%
33
History Matches
49
1.64
Conceded Mean
1.16
1.25
Conceded Std
1.04
48.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.7%
18.2%
Conceded 3+ rate
12.2%
1.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.28
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
15.2%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
34.7%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
24.0%
15.2%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
36.4%
Failed-to-score rate
34.7%
12.5%
Clean-sheet rate
24.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
24.0%
15.2%
Clean-sheet rate
30.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
33
History Matches
49
0.96
Result entropy
0.99
1.72
Goal Difference Std
1.48
4.11
Stability score
0.50
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
33
Eligible Matches
48
6
Lead Matches
11
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
90.9%
0.78
Lead Points Retention
0.94
11
Trailing Matches
8
27.3%
Non-loss rate
12.5%
9.1%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
33
Halftime Coverage Matches
48
0.39
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.64
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.42
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.63
1.00
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.77
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
181.1
Rest days
181.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
21
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.45
11
Long Rest History Matches
17
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.18
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
2
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
—
Portability PPG Std
0.13
—
Portability PPG Range
0.26
—
Portability Score
79.52
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
33
Clean History Matches
49
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-28.28
PPG-0.36
GF-0.06
GA0.47
PPG-0.15
PPG0.80
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-16
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Failed-to-score rate1.7%
History Matches-9
Clean-sheet rate-0.12
Failed-to-score rate1.0%
History Matches-16
Goals Mean-0.06
Goals Std0.14
Scored 1+ rate-0.02
Scored 2+ rate-0.07
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.28
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.58
History Matches-16
Conceded Mean0.47
Conceded Std0.21
Clean-sheet rate-0.15
Conceded 2+ rate15.8%
Conceded 3+ rate5.9%
Venue Conceded Mean0.22
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.17
History Matches-16
Result entropy-0.04
Goal Difference Std0.24
Stability score3.60
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.03
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.72
Eligible Matches-15
Lead Matches-5
Lead Win Rate-0.24
Lead Points Retention-0.16
Trailing Matches3
Non-loss rate14.8%
Trailing Win Rate9.1%
Halftime Coverage Matches-15
First Half Goals For Mean-0.11
First Half Goals Against Mean0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-10
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.45
Long Rest History Matches-6
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.18
Current Team ELO-28.28
Current Opponent ELO28.28
Current ELO Difference-56.56
Expected score-0.08
History Matches-16
Residual Mean-0.05
Overperformance-2.74
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Gijón Industrial

W
L'Entregu1–4Gijón Industrial31 Oct · away
Pick: L'Entregu 55% · missed
L
Gijón Industrial0–2Covadonga25 Oct · home
Pick: Covadonga 44% · hit
W
Ceares0–1Gijón Industrial18 Oct · away
Pick: Ceares 51% · missed
W
Andes0–3Gijón Industrial4 Oct · away
Pick: Gijón Industrial 36% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Praviano

W
Praviano5–2Mosconia31 Oct · home
Pick: Mosconia 41% · missed
L
San Martín1–0Praviano25 Oct · away
Pick: San Martín 36% · hit
W
Praviano4–1Siero18 Oct · home
Pick: Praviano 53% · hit
D
Praviano1–1Caudal4 Oct · home
Pick: Caudal 44% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Gijón Industrial and Praviano meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 2 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 17:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Gijón Industrial win 30.0%, draw 27.4%, Praviano win 42.6%. The pick is Praviano win. Over 2.5 goals: 48.5%. Both teams to score: 51.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.