ScoreProb
NB III - Southwest Hungary Southwest - 15 2026

Siofok vs Iváncsa

Siofok Home · Elo 1,516
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Iváncsa Away · Elo 1,540
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Iváncsa win
Siofok win
30.1%
Draw
20.4%
Iváncsa winPick
49.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.1%
No41.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.3%
Under 2.536.7%

How much we know

Siofok history50 matches
Iváncsa history50 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (49.5%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Iváncsa are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,516 against 1,540. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.74 goals a game over 50 matches for Siofok, against 1.90 over 50 for Iváncsa.

  • Iváncsa concede fewer

    Siofok concede 1.62 a game, Iváncsa 1.20.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    60% of Siofok matches, against 62% for Iváncsa. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Siofok
Iváncsa
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1515.9
ELO
1540.4
50
ELO · Matches
50
1515.9
Current Team ELO
1540.4
1540.4
Current Opponent ELO
1515.9
-24.49
Current ELO Difference
24.49
0.46
Expected score
0.54
50
History Matches
50
0.01
Residual Mean
0.04
50.83
Overperformance
52.78
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
2.40
0.80
Goals for per game
2.60
1.40
Goals against per game
0.80
20.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.70
1.60
Goals for per game
1.90
1.20
Goals against per game
0.90
40.0%
Win rate
50.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.43
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.22
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.90
0.75
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.04
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
1.74
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.95
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
50
1.52
PPG
1.62
44.0%
Win rate
48.0%
20.0%
Draw rate
18.0%
36.0%
Loss rate
34.0%
86.0%
Over 1.5 rate
90.0%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
62.0%
42.0%
Over 3.5 rate
34.0%
2.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.40
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
25
1.54
PPG
1.36
41.7%
Win rate
40.0%
29.2%
Draw rate
16.0%
29.2%
Loss rate
44.0%
79.2%
Over 1.5 rate
96.0%
54.2%
Over 2.5 rate
72.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
2.39
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.49
24
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.74
Goals for per game
1.90
76.0%
Scoring rate
80.0%
62.0%
BTTS rate
48.0%
1.58
Goals for per game
1.76
79.2%
Scoring rate
84.0%
58.3%
BTTS rate
60.0%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.33
75.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
33.3%
50
History Matches
50
1.74
Goals Mean
1.90
1.73
Goals Std
1.59
76.0%
Scored 1+ rate
80.0%
44.0%
Scored 2+ rate
52.0%
26.0%
Scored 3+ rate
32.0%
1.58
Venue Goals Mean
1.76
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.62
Goals against per game
1.20
82.0%
Conceding rate
66.0%
1.42
Goals against per game
1.60
70.8%
Conceding rate
76.0%
1.25
Goals against per game
1.00
75.0%
Conceding rate
33.3%
50
History Matches
50
1.62
Conceded Mean
1.20
1.53
Conceded Std
1.22
38.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
36.0%
18.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.0%
1.42
Venue Conceded Mean
1.60
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.0%
Clean-sheet rate
34.0%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
24.0%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
16.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
18.0%
Clean-sheet rate
34.0%
24.0%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
29.2%
Clean-sheet rate
24.0%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
16.0%
18.0%
Clean-sheet rate
34.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
50
0.96
Result entropy
0.94
2.54
Goal Difference Std
2.40
4.34
Stability score
6.45
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
50
Eligible Matches
50
23
Lead Matches
20
73.9%
Lead Win Rate
95.0%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.95
14
Trailing Matches
13
7.1%
Non-loss rate
23.1%
7.1%
Trailing Win Rate
7.7%
Goal timing5 signals
50
50
Halftime Coverage Matches
50
0.90
First Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.82
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
0.84
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.18
0.80
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.90
Rest days
78.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
1
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
29
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.79
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.81
18
Long Rest History Matches
16
0.94
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.25
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
2.00
25.0%
Win rate
66.7%
25.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
66.7%
0.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.49
4
Current Competition Matches
3
1.00
Current Competition PPG
2.00
-0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
1.33
6
Competition Season Count
7
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.49
Portability PPG Std
0.40
1.15
Portability PPG Range
0.96
50.63
Portability Score
55.46
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
50
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-24.49
PPG-0.10
GF-0.16
GA0.42
PPG-1.00
PPG0.18
PPG-1.60
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Failed-to-score rate4.0%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate5.2%
Failed-to-score rate4.8%
History Matches0
Goals Mean-0.16
Goals Std0.14
Scored 1+ rate-0.04
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Goals Mean-0.18
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.21
History Matches0
Conceded Mean0.42
Conceded Std0.32
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Conceded 2+ rate2.0%
Conceded 3+ rate8.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.18
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.30
History Matches0
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.14
Stability score-2.11
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.21
Eligible Matches0
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.21
Lead Points Retention-0.12
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.16
Trailing Win Rate-0.01
Halftime Coverage Matches0
First Half Goals For Mean0.18
First Half Goals Against Mean0.26
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.34
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.16
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.58
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.09
Portability PPG Range0.19
Portability Score-4.83
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.00
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.02
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.31
Current Team ELO-24.49
Current Opponent ELO24.49
Current ELO Difference-48.97
Expected score-0.07
History Matches0
Residual Mean-0.03
Overperformance-1.95
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.13

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Siofok

L
Érdi VSE2–1Siofok31 Oct · away
Pick: Érdi VSE 51% · hit
W
Siofok3–1Ferencváros II24 Oct · home
Pick: Siofok 47% · hit
L
Majosi3–2Siofok17 Oct · away
Pick: Majosi 48% · hit
W
Szekszárd1–3Siofok29 Aug · away
Pick: Siofok 74% · hit
D
Sárbogárd1–1Siofok26 Aug · away
Pick: Siofok 69% · missed

Iváncsa

W
Iváncsa2–1Budafoki LC31 Oct · home
Pick: Iváncsa 53% · hit
W
PTE-PEAC0–3Iváncsa24 Oct · away
Pick: Iváncsa 49% · hit
W
Iváncsa5–2MTK Budapest II17 Oct · home
Pick: Iváncsa 49% · hit
L
Pécsi MFC7–0Iváncsa30 Aug · away
Pick: Pécsi MFC 65% · hit
L
Iváncsa1–3Dunaharaszti MTK26 Aug · home
Pick: Iváncsa 60% · missed

About this match

Siofok and Iváncsa meet in NB III - Southwest on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Siofok win 30.1%, draw 20.4%, Iváncsa win 49.5%. The pick is Iváncsa win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.3%. Both teams to score: 58.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.