ScoreProb
NB III - Southwest Hungary Southwest - 15 2026

Paksi SE II vs Pécsi MFC

Paksi SE II Home · Elo 1,472
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Pécsi MFC Away · Elo 1,683
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Pécsi MFC win
Paksi SE II win
11.7%
Draw
14.8%
Pécsi MFC winPick
73.5%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes55.3%
No44.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.568.2%
Under 2.531.8%

How much we know

Paksi SE II history52 matches
Pécsi MFC history53 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 1 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 10:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (73.5%). Picks in that band won 76.2% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 583 matches.

Why Pécsi MFC are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Pécsi MFC are rated 211 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,683 against 1,472. On rating alone Pécsi MFC would be expected to take 77% of the points on offer.

  • Pécsi MFC score more

    1.62 goals a game over 52 matches for Paksi SE II, against 2.42 over 53 for Pécsi MFC.

  • Pécsi MFC concede fewer

    Paksi SE II concede 1.81 a game, Pécsi MFC 0.85.

  • Paksi SE II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    73% of Paksi SE II matches, against 55% for Pécsi MFC. The model puts this match at 68% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Paksi SE II
Pécsi MFC
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1472.0
ELO
1683.3
52
ELO · Matches
53
1472.0
Current Team ELO
1683.3
1683.3
Current Opponent ELO
1472.0
-211.3
Current ELO Difference
211.3
0.23
Expected score
0.77
52
History Matches
53
-0.03
Residual Mean
0.17
47.66
Overperformance
62.28
-0.11
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.26
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
3.00
1.40
Goals for per game
3.40
2.40
Goals against per game
0.20
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
2.80
1.30
Goals for per game
2.60
2.30
Goals against per game
0.50
20.0%
Win rate
90.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.60
1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.50
2.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.50
1.19
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.30
1.84
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.58
Overall performance9 signals
90
52
Matches
53
1.23
PPG
2.17
36.5%
Win rate
66.0%
13.5%
Draw rate
18.9%
50.0%
Loss rate
15.1%
90.4%
Over 1.5 rate
83.0%
73.1%
Over 2.5 rate
54.7%
46.2%
Over 3.5 rate
39.6%
2.39
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.19
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
27
1.67
PPG
2.04
50.0%
Win rate
59.3%
16.7%
Draw rate
25.9%
33.3%
Loss rate
14.8%
91.7%
Over 1.5 rate
77.8%
70.8%
Over 2.5 rate
51.9%
54.2%
Over 3.5 rate
40.7%
2.64
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.39
24
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.62
Goals for per game
2.42
75.0%
Scoring rate
86.8%
55.8%
BTTS rate
47.2%
1.88
Goals for per game
2.41
79.2%
Scoring rate
81.5%
54.2%
BTTS rate
48.1%
1.25
Goals for per game
3.50
75.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
25.0%
52
History Matches
53
1.62
Goals Mean
2.42
1.43
Goals Std
1.97
75.0%
Scored 1+ rate
86.8%
46.2%
Scored 2+ rate
60.4%
23.1%
Scored 3+ rate
43.4%
1.88
Venue Goals Mean
2.41
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.81
Goals against per game
0.85
78.8%
Conceding rate
56.6%
1.58
Goals against per game
0.85
75.0%
Conceding rate
59.3%
2.25
Goals against per game
0.25
100.0%
Conceding rate
25.0%
52
History Matches
53
1.81
Conceded Mean
0.85
1.45
Conceded Std
0.90
53.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
22.6%
32.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.7%
1.58
Venue Conceded Mean
0.85
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
21.2%
Clean-sheet rate
43.4%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
13.2%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.7%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
18.5%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
75.0%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
21.2%
Clean-sheet rate
43.4%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
13.2%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
40.7%
20.8%
Failed-to-score rate
18.5%
21.2%
Clean-sheet rate
43.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
52
History Matches
53
0.90
Result entropy
0.80
2.39
Goal Difference Std
2.19
10.40
Stability score
20.44
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
48
Eligible Matches
52
18
Lead Matches
27
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
100.0%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
1.00
19
Trailing Matches
11
10.5%
Non-loss rate
45.5%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
18.2%
Goal timing5 signals
50
48
Halftime Coverage Matches
52
0.69
First Half Goals For Mean
1.27
0.81
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.85
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.17
1.06
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.37
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
85.04
Rest days
78.81
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
23
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.78
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.87
24
Long Rest History Matches
20
0.83
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.55
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
0.50
PPG
3.00
0.0%
Win rate
100.0%
50.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.64
4
Current Competition Matches
4
0.50
Current Competition PPG
3.00
-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
3.25
4
Competition Season Count
7
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.48
Portability PPG Std
0.44
1.36
Portability PPG Range
1.15
50.82
Portability Score
52.99
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
52
Clean History Matches
53
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-211.3
PPG-0.94
GF-0.80
GA0.96
PPG-2.50
PPG-0.37
PPG-2.60
PPG-2.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate-0.22
Failed-to-score rate11.8%
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Failed-to-score rate2.3%
History Matches-1
Goals Mean-0.80
Goals Std-0.54
Scored 1+ rate-0.12
Scored 2+ rate-0.14
Scored 3+ rate-0.20
Venue Goals Mean-0.53
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.49
History Matches-1
Conceded Mean0.96
Conceded Std0.56
Clean-sheet rate-0.22
Conceded 2+ rate31.2%
Conceded 3+ rate27.0%
Venue Conceded Mean0.73
Recent 10 Conceded Mean1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.27
History Matches-1
Result entropy0.10
Goal Difference Std0.20
Stability score-10.04
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.57
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.27
Eligible Matches-4
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate-0.17
Lead Points Retention-0.15
Trailing Matches8
Non-loss rate-0.35
Trailing Win Rate-0.18
Halftime Coverage Matches-4
First Half Goals For Mean-0.58
First Half Goals Against Mean0.31
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.32
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.70
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-2.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-4.25
Competition Season Count-3
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.04
Portability PPG Range0.20
Portability Score-2.18
Rest days6.23
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches3
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.25
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.09
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.72
Current Team ELO-211.3
Current Opponent ELO211.3
Current ELO Difference-422.6
Expected score-0.54
History Matches-1
Residual Mean-0.20
Overperformance-14.62
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.37

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Paksi SE II

W
Dunaharaszti MTK0–2Paksi SE II31 Oct · away
Pick: Dunaharaszti MTK 49% · missed
W
Sárbogárd0–6Paksi SE II24 Oct · away
Pick: Paksi SE II 60% · hit
L
Paksi SE II2–4MTK Budapest II29 Aug · home
Pick: MTK Budapest II 42% · hit
L
Kaposvar3–1Paksi SE II26 Aug · away
Pick: Kaposvar 78% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Pécsi MFC

W
Pécsi MFC4–2Kisvarda FC28 Oct · home
Pick: Pécsi MFC 48% · hit
W
Budaörs0–6Pécsi MFC24 Oct · away
Pick: Pécsi MFC 72% · hit
W
Pécsi MFC3–0Szekszárd17 Oct · home
Pick: Pécsi MFC 89% · hit
W
Pécsi MFC7–0Iváncsa30 Aug · home
Pick: Pécsi MFC 65% · hit
W
Érdi VSE1–2Pécsi MFC26 Aug · away
Pick: Pécsi MFC 58% · hit

About this match

Paksi SE II and Pécsi MFC meet in NB III - Southwest on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 10:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Paksi SE II win 11.7%, draw 14.8%, Pécsi MFC win 73.5%. The pick is Pécsi MFC win. Over 2.5 goals: 68.2%. Both teams to score: 55.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.