ScoreProb
Diski Challenge South Africa Round 7 2026

Siwelele U23 vs Durban City U23

Siwelele U23 Home · Elo 1,554
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
Durban City U23 Away · Elo 1,476
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Siwelele U23 win
Siwelele U23 winPick
41.7%
Draw
19.7%
Durban City U23 win
38.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · the live score only: events are not provided for this competition by our data source
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.5%
No41.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.563.1%
Under 2.536.9%

How much we know

Siwelele U23 history27 matches
Durban City U23 history29 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 5 d 23 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 08:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.7%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Siwelele U23 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Siwelele U23 are rated 77 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,554 against 1,476. On rating alone Siwelele U23 would be expected to take 61% of the points on offer.

  • Siwelele U23 score more

    1.96 goals a game over 27 matches for Siwelele U23, against 1.69 over 29 for Durban City U23.

  • Siwelele U23 concede fewer

    Siwelele U23 concede 1.22 a game, Durban City U23 1.55.

  • Siwelele U23 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    70% of Siwelele U23 matches, against 52% for Durban City U23. The model puts this match at 63% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 9 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Siwelele U23
Durban City U23
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1553.5
ELO
1476.3
27
ELO · Matches
29
1553.5
Current Team ELO
1476.3
1476.3
Current Opponent ELO
1553.5
77.28
Current ELO Difference
-77.28
0.61
Expected score
0.39
27
History Matches
29
0.10
Residual Mean
-0.04
55.78
Overperformance
47.38
0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.07
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
2.00
1.60
Goals for per game
3.00
1.40
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.40
1.80
Goals for per game
2.10
1.80
Goals against per game
1.60
50.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.10
0.98
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.51
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.60
1.33
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.11
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
2.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.25
Overall performance9 signals
90
27
Matches
29
1.89
PPG
1.10
55.6%
Win rate
24.1%
22.2%
Draw rate
37.9%
22.2%
Loss rate
37.9%
88.9%
Over 1.5 rate
82.8%
70.4%
Over 2.5 rate
51.7%
37.0%
Over 3.5 rate
41.4%
1.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.06
Venue performance10 signals
100
14
Matches
15
2.07
PPG
1.13
64.3%
Win rate
26.7%
14.3%
Draw rate
33.3%
21.4%
Loss rate
40.0%
92.9%
Over 1.5 rate
80.0%
78.6%
Over 2.5 rate
53.3%
35.7%
Over 3.5 rate
40.0%
1.62
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.90
14
History Matches
15
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.96
Goals for per game
1.69
88.9%
Scoring rate
82.8%
66.7%
BTTS rate
69.0%
2.36
Goals for per game
1.73
92.9%
Scoring rate
80.0%
71.4%
BTTS rate
60.0%
27
History Matches
29
1.96
Goals Mean
1.69
1.20
Goals Std
1.42
88.9%
Scored 1+ rate
82.8%
63.0%
Scored 2+ rate
41.4%
33.3%
Scored 3+ rate
24.1%
2.36
Venue Goals Mean
1.73
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.22
Goals against per game
1.55
74.1%
Conceding rate
82.8%
1.07
Goals against per game
1.53
78.6%
Conceding rate
80.0%
27
History Matches
29
1.22
Conceded Mean
1.55
1.17
Conceded Std
1.40
25.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
31.0%
14.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
20.7%
1.07
Venue Conceded Mean
1.53
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
17.2%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
17.2%
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
7.1%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
17.2%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
17.2%
21.4%
Clean-sheet rate
20.0%
7.1%
Failed-to-score rate
20.0%
25.9%
Clean-sheet rate
17.2%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
27
History Matches
29
0.91
Result entropy
0.98
1.88
Goal Difference Std
2.06
9.43
Stability score
1.83
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
16
Eligible Matches
25
6
Lead Matches
10
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.63
2
Trailing Matches
7
100.0%
Non-loss rate
28.6%
100.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
16
Halftime Coverage Matches
25
0.88
First Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.80
0.88
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.96
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.72
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
182.0
Rest days
182.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
15
Normal Rest History Matches
18
2.13
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.11
11
Long Rest History Matches
10
1.73
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.10
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability Score
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
1
Competition Season Count
1
1
Eligible Competition Season Count
1
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
27
Clean History Matches
29
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO77.28
PPG0.79
GF0.27
GA-0.33
PPG0.94
PPG-0.40
PPG0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate8.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.06
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate1.4%
Failed-to-score rate-0.13
History Matches-2
Goals Mean0.27
Goals Std-0.22
Scored 1+ rate6.1%
Scored 2+ rate21.6%
Scored 3+ rate9.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.62
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.53
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean-0.33
Conceded Std-0.24
Clean-sheet rate8.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate-0.06
Venue Conceded Mean-0.46
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.21
History Matches-2
Result entropy-0.08
Goal Difference Std-0.19
Stability score7.60
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.02
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.15
Eligible Matches-9
Lead Matches-4
Lead Win Rate33.3%
Lead Points Retention0.26
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate71.4%
Trailing Win Rate100.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-9
First Half Goals For Mean0.16
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.43
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.02
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.63
Current Team ELO77.28
Current Opponent ELO-77.28
Current ELO Difference154.6
Expected score0.22
History Matches-2
Residual Mean0.14
Overperformance8.40
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Siwelele U23

L
Siwelele U230–2Kaizer Chiefs U231 Nov · home
Pick: Kaizer Chiefs U23 49% · hit
W
AmaZulu U230–1Siwelele U2324 Oct · away
Pick: AmaZulu U23 46% · missed
D
Stellenbosch U230–0Siwelele U2318 Oct · away
Pick: Stellenbosch U23 53% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Durban City U23

W
Durban City U231–0Kruger United U231 Nov · home
Pick: Durban City U23 60% · hit
L
Kaizer Chiefs U235–1Durban City U2324 Oct · away
Pick: Kaizer Chiefs U23 63% · hit
D
Durban City U230–0Milford FC U2318 Oct · home
Pick: Durban City U23 60% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Siwelele U23 and Durban City U23 meet in Diski Challenge on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 08:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Siwelele U23 win 41.7%, draw 19.7%, Durban City U23 win 38.6%. The pick is Siwelele U23 win. Over 2.5 goals: 63.1%. Both teams to score: 58.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.