ScoreProb
Liga Revelação U23 Portugal Round 11 2026

Sporting CP U23 vs Sporting Braga U23

Sporting CP U23 Home · Elo 1,484
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Sporting Braga U23 Away · Elo 1,538
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Sporting CP U23 win
Sporting CP U23 winPick
47.4%
Draw
26.4%
Sporting Braga U23 win
26.2%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.4%
No47.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.553.9%
Under 2.546.1%

How much we know

Sporting CP U23 history47 matches
Sporting Braga U23 history43 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 11:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (47.4%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Sporting CP U23 are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Sporting Braga U23 are rated 54 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,538 against 1,484. On rating alone Sporting Braga U23 would be expected to take 58% of the points on offer.

  • Sporting Braga U23 score more

    1.32 goals a game over 47 matches for Sporting CP U23, against 1.53 over 43 for Sporting Braga U23.

  • Sporting CP U23 concede fewer

    Sporting CP U23 concede 1.30 a game, Sporting Braga U23 1.49.

  • Sporting Braga U23 games more often go over 2.5 goals

    51% of Sporting CP U23 matches, against 63% for Sporting Braga U23. The model puts this match at 54% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 26 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Sporting CP U23
Sporting Braga U23@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1484.0
ELO
1537.8
47
ELO · Matches
43
1484.0
Current Team ELO
1537.8
1537.8
Current Opponent ELO
1484.0
-53.80
Current ELO Difference
53.80
0.42
Expected score
0.58
47
History Matches
43
-0.02
Residual Mean
0.04
48.47
Overperformance
52.81
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.02
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.60
1.60
Goals for per game
1.40
1.40
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.40
1.30
Goals for per game
1.40
1.60
Goals against per game
1.30
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.10
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.66
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.30
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.10
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.96
1.73
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.30
Overall performance9 signals
90
47
Matches
43
1.21
PPG
1.56
31.9%
Win rate
44.2%
25.5%
Draw rate
23.3%
42.6%
Loss rate
32.6%
76.6%
Over 1.5 rate
86.0%
51.1%
Over 2.5 rate
62.8%
23.4%
Over 3.5 rate
27.9%
1.56
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.18
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
22
1.23
PPG
1.41
31.8%
Win rate
40.9%
27.3%
Draw rate
18.2%
40.9%
Loss rate
40.9%
81.8%
Over 1.5 rate
90.9%
45.5%
Over 2.5 rate
63.6%
9.1%
Over 3.5 rate
22.7%
1.44
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.22
22
History Matches
22
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.32
Goals for per game
1.53
74.5%
Scoring rate
83.7%
57.4%
BTTS rate
69.8%
1.27
Goals for per game
1.45
72.7%
Scoring rate
81.8%
63.6%
BTTS rate
72.7%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
33.3%
47
History Matches
43
1.32
Goals Mean
1.53
1.13
Goals Std
0.92
74.5%
Scored 1+ rate
83.7%
38.3%
Scored 2+ rate
58.1%
12.8%
Scored 3+ rate
9.3%
1.27
Venue Goals Mean
1.45
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.30
Goals against per game
1.49
80.9%
Conceding rate
83.7%
1.18
Goals against per game
1.59
90.9%
Conceding rate
90.9%
0.67
Goals against per game
1.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
33.3%
47
History Matches
43
1.30
Conceded Mean
1.49
0.92
Conceded Std
1.00
38.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
46.5%
8.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
16.3%
1.18
Venue Conceded Mean
1.59
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
19.1%
Clean-sheet rate
16.3%
25.5%
Failed-to-score rate
16.3%
9.1%
Clean-sheet rate
9.1%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
66.7%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
19.1%
Clean-sheet rate
16.3%
25.5%
Failed-to-score rate
16.3%
9.1%
Clean-sheet rate
9.1%
27.3%
Failed-to-score rate
18.2%
19.1%
Clean-sheet rate
16.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
47
History Matches
43
0.98
Result entropy
0.97
1.56
Goal Difference Std
1.18
2.00
Stability score
3.02
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
47
Eligible Matches
43
15
Lead Matches
16
73.3%
Lead Win Rate
62.5%
0.80
Lead Points Retention
0.67
13
Trailing Matches
11
23.1%
Non-loss rate
54.5%
15.4%
Trailing Win Rate
27.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
47
Halftime Coverage Matches
43
0.68
First Half Goals For Mean
0.67
0.47
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.60
0.64
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.86
0.83
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.88
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
74.67
Rest days
75.67
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
17
Normal Rest History Matches
18
0.82
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.56
29
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.45
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
2.33
PPG
2.00
66.7%
Win rate
66.7%
33.3%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
33.3%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
33.3%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.25
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.25
3
Current Competition Matches
3
2.33
Current Competition PPG
2.00
1.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.67
5
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.53
Portability PPG Std
0.24
1.17
Portability PPG Range
0.57
48.48
Portability Score
67.72
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
47
Clean History Matches
43
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-53.80
PPG-0.35
GF-0.22
GA-0.19
PPG0.33
PPG-0.18
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate2.9%
Failed-to-score rate9.3%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate9.1%
History Matches4
Goals Mean-0.22
Goals Std0.21
Scored 1+ rate-0.09
Scored 2+ rate-0.20
Scored 3+ rate3.5%
Venue Goals Mean-0.18
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.44
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.19
Conceded Std-0.08
Clean-sheet rate2.9%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.08
Conceded 3+ rate-0.08
Venue Conceded Mean-0.41
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.18
History Matches4
Result entropy0.01
Goal Difference Std0.38
Stability score-1.02
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.43
Eligible Matches4
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate10.8%
Lead Points Retention0.13
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.31
Trailing Win Rate-0.12
Halftime Coverage Matches4
First Half Goals For Mean0.01
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.05
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.67
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.29
Portability PPG Range0.60
Portability Score-19.24
Rest days-1.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.73
Long Rest History Matches5
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.05
Current Team ELO-53.80
Current Opponent ELO53.80
Current ELO Difference-107.6
Expected score-0.15
History Matches4
Residual Mean-0.06
Overperformance-4.34
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.03

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Sporting CP U23

W
Rio Ave U231–2Sporting CP U2327 Oct · away
Pick: Sporting CP U23 42% · hit
W
Estrela U231–2Sporting CP U231 Sep · away
Pick: Sporting CP U23 48% · hit
W
Sporting CP U234–1Benfica U2325 Aug · home
Pick: Benfica U23 40% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Sporting Braga U23

W
Sporting Braga U234–3Benfica U2323 Oct · home
Pick: Sporting Braga U23 48% · hit
D
Santa Clara U231–1Sporting Braga U2319 Oct · away
Pick: Santa Clara U23 44% · missed
L
Sporting Braga U231–3Marítimo U2312 Oct · home
Pick: Sporting Braga U23 60% · missed
D
Torreense U231–1Sporting Braga U2331 Aug · away
Pick: Torreense U23 44% · missed
W
Sporting Braga U231–0Gil Vicente U2324 Aug · home
Pick: Sporting Braga U23 45% · hit

About this match

Sporting CP U23 and Sporting Braga U23 meet in Liga Revelação U23 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Sporting CP U23 win 47.4%, draw 26.4%, Sporting Braga U23 win 26.2%. The pick is Sporting CP U23 win. Over 2.5 goals: 53.9%. Both teams to score: 52.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.