St Joseph S Fc vs Europa Point
Match result probability Model pick: St Joseph S Fc win
St Joseph S Fc winPick
72.7%
Draw
12.6%
Europa Point win
14.7%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes48.9%
No51.1%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.578.9%
Under 2.521.1%
How much we know
St Joseph S Fc history45 matches
Europa Point history29 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours St Joseph S Fc
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
- Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 14:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre7 Nov · 15:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,274 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,668
40–49% Won 45.5% · said 44.8% · n 6,228
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,755
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,872
70–79% Won 76.3% · said 73.9% · n 587
80%+ Won 83.5% · said 84.5% · n 164
This pick sits in the 70–79% band (72.7%). Picks in that band won 76.3% of the time, and the model said 73.9% on average, over 587 matches.
Why St Joseph S Fc are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
St Joseph S Fc are rated 176 Elo points higher
Elo 1,602 against 1,426. On rating alone St Joseph S Fc would be expected to take 73% of the points on offer.
-
St Joseph S Fc score far more
2.76 goals a game over 45 matches for St Joseph S Fc, against 1.24 over 29 for Europa Point.
-
St Joseph S Fc concede fewer
St Joseph S Fc concede 0.80 a game, Europa Point 2.97.
-
Europa Point games more often go over 2.5 goals
64% of St Joseph S Fc matches, against 83% for Europa Point. The model puts this match at 79% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Europa Point@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1602.3
ELO
1426.2
45
ELO · Matches
29
1602.3
Current Team ELO
1426.2
1426.2
Current Opponent ELO
1602.3
176.1
Current ELO Difference
-176.1
0.73
Expected score
0.27
45
History Matches
29
0.12
Residual Mean
-0.13
58.12
Overperformance
42.40
-0.25
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.14
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
0.40
PPG
0.20
1.20
Goals for per game
0.60
2.20
Goals against per game
3.60
0.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
0.70
1.40
Goals for per game
1.00
1.30
Goals against per game
2.90
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
1.40
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
2.11
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.18
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.90
1.27
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.70
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
2.47
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.34
Overall performance9 signals 90
45
Matches
29
2.00
PPG
0.83
60.0%
Win rate
24.1%
20.0%
Draw rate
10.3%
20.0%
Loss rate
65.5%
77.8%
Over 1.5 rate
89.7%
64.4%
Over 2.5 rate
82.8%
57.8%
Over 3.5 rate
58.6%
2.97
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.97
Venue performance10 signals 100
24
Matches
15
1.88
PPG
0.67
54.2%
Win rate
20.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
6.7%
20.8%
Loss rate
73.3%
75.0%
Over 1.5 rate
93.3%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
86.7%
54.2%
Over 3.5 rate
73.3%
3.24
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.43
24
History Matches
15
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
2.76
Goals for per game
1.24
77.8%
Scoring rate
58.6%
35.6%
BTTS rate
44.8%
2.71
Goals for per game
1.47
75.0%
Scoring rate
60.0%
37.5%
BTTS rate
46.7%
—
Goals for per game
2.00
—
Scoring rate
100.0%
—
BTTS rate
100.0%
45
History Matches
29
2.76
Goals Mean
1.24
2.40
Goals Std
1.57
77.8%
Scored 1+ rate
58.6%
64.4%
Scored 2+ rate
31.0%
44.4%
Scored 3+ rate
17.2%
2.71
Venue Goals Mean
1.47
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
0.80
Goals against per game
2.97
48.9%
Conceding rate
86.2%
0.88
Goals against per game
3.27
54.2%
Conceding rate
86.7%
—
Goals against per game
2.00
—
Conceding rate
100.0%
45
History Matches
29
0.80
Conceded Mean
2.97
1.05
Conceded Std
1.96
17.8%
Conceded 2+ rate
82.8%
11.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
58.6%
0.88
Venue Conceded Mean
3.27
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
51.1%
Clean-sheet rate
13.8%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
41.4%
45.8%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
51.1%
Clean-sheet rate
13.8%
22.2%
Failed-to-score rate
41.4%
45.8%
Clean-sheet rate
13.3%
25.0%
Failed-to-score rate
40.0%
51.1%
Clean-sheet rate
13.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
45
History Matches
29
0.86
Result entropy
0.78
2.97
Goal Difference Std
2.97
13.50
Stability score
22.19
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
43
Eligible Matches
26
21
Lead Matches
4
100.0%
Lead Win Rate
50.0%
1.00
Lead Points Retention
0.58
6
Trailing Matches
11
16.7%
Non-loss rate
9.1%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
43
Halftime Coverage Matches
26
1.16
First Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.30
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.15
1.49
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.77
0.47
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.69
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
75.85
Rest days
75.98
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
20
Normal Rest History Matches
13
2.30
Normal Rest Points Per Match
0.69
23
Long Rest History Matches
15
1.65
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.00
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0
Matches
1
—
PPG
1.00
—
Win rate
0.0%
—
Draw rate
100.0%
—
Loss rate
0.0%
—
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
—
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
—
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
0
Current Competition Matches
1
—
Current Competition PPG
1.00
—
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
7
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.76
Portability PPG Std
0.38
1.63
Portability PPG Range
0.75
39.80
Portability Score
57.14
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
45
Clean History Matches
29
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO176.1
PPG1.17
GF1.51
GA-2.17
PPG1.21
PPG0.20
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches16
Clean-sheet rate37.3%
Failed-to-score rate-0.19
History Matches9
Clean-sheet rate32.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches16
Goals Mean1.51
Goals Std0.83
Scored 1+ rate19.2%
Scored 2+ rate33.4%
Scored 3+ rate27.2%
Venue Goals Mean1.24
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.40
Recent 10 Goals Std0.92
History Matches16
Conceded Mean-2.17
Conceded Std-0.91
Clean-sheet rate37.3%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.65
Conceded 3+ rate-0.48
Venue Conceded Mean-2.39
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.43
History Matches16
Result entropy0.09
Goal Difference Std0.00
Stability score-8.69
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.12
Eligible Matches17
Lead Matches17
Lead Win Rate50.0%
Lead Points Retention0.42
Trailing Matches-5
Non-loss rate7.6%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches17
First Half Goals For Mean0.66
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.85
Second Half Goals For Mean0.72
Second Half Goals Against Mean-1.23
Current Competition Matches-1
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.38
Portability PPG Range0.88
Portability Score-17.35
Rest days-0.13
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches7
Normal Rest Points Per Match1.61
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match0.65
Current Team ELO176.1
Current Opponent ELO-176.1
Current ELO Difference352.2
Expected score0.47
History Matches16
Residual Mean0.25
Overperformance15.73
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.10
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
St Joseph S Fc
D
Magpies1–1St Joseph S Fc30 Oct · away
Pick: St Joseph S Fc 52% · missed W
St Joseph S Fc5–0College 197525 Oct · home
Pick: St Joseph S Fc 73% · hit W
Hound Dogs0–8St Joseph S Fc18 Oct · away
Pick: St Joseph S Fc 75% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Europa Point
L
Europa Point0–3Glacis United1 Nov · home
Pick: Europa Point 44% · missed L
Magpies6–1Europa Point16 Oct · away
Pick: Magpies 63% · hit L
Europa Point0–2Europa30 Aug · home
Pick: Europa 49% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
St Joseph S Fc and Europa Point meet in Premier Division on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: St Joseph S Fc win 72.7%, draw 12.6%, Europa Point win 14.7%. The pick is St Joseph S Fc win. Over 2.5 goals: 78.9%. Both teams to score: 48.9%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.