ScoreProb
1. Liga Classic - Group 1 Switzerland Group 1 - 13 2026

Stade Payerne vs Lausanne Sport II

Stade Payerne Home · Elo 1,457
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Lausanne Sport II Away · Elo 1,422
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Stade Payerne win
Stade Payerne winPick
52.8%
Draw
20.3%
Lausanne Sport II win
26.9%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.6%
No39.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.568.0%
Under 2.532.0%

How much we know

Stade Payerne history53 matches
Lausanne Sport II history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.8%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Stade Payerne are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Stade Payerne are rated 36 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,457 against 1,422. On rating alone Stade Payerne would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Lausanne Sport II score far more

    1.30 goals a game over 53 matches for Stade Payerne, against 2.07 over 57 for Lausanne Sport II.

  • Stade Payerne concede fewer

    Stade Payerne concede 1.70 a game, Lausanne Sport II 2.00.

  • Lausanne Sport II games more often go over 2.5 goals

    60% of Stade Payerne matches, against 70% for Lausanne Sport II. The model puts this match at 68% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Stade Payerne
Lausanne Sport II
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1457.5
ELO
1421.7
53
ELO · Matches
57
1457.5
Current Team ELO
1421.7
1421.7
Current Opponent ELO
1457.5
35.75
Current ELO Difference
-35.75
0.55
Expected score
0.45
53
History Matches
57
-0.04
Residual Mean
-0.07
47.32
Overperformance
44.98
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.08
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.20
1.80
Goals for per game
1.20
2.20
Goals against per game
1.40
40.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.20
PPG
0.70
1.60
Goals for per game
1.10
2.20
Goals against per game
1.90
30.0%
Win rate
10.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.10
1.36
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.83
2.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.90
2.14
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.94
0.99
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
3.20
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.17
Overall performance9 signals
90
53
Matches
57
1.13
PPG
1.23
28.3%
Win rate
35.1%
28.3%
Draw rate
17.5%
43.4%
Loss rate
47.4%
81.1%
Over 1.5 rate
91.2%
60.4%
Over 2.5 rate
70.2%
35.8%
Over 3.5 rate
49.1%
2.07
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.63
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
28
1.04
PPG
0.75
25.9%
Win rate
17.9%
25.9%
Draw rate
21.4%
48.1%
Loss rate
60.7%
70.4%
Over 1.5 rate
92.9%
63.0%
Over 2.5 rate
71.4%
29.6%
Over 3.5 rate
39.3%
1.71
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.75
27
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.30
Goals for per game
2.07
66.0%
Scoring rate
82.5%
52.8%
BTTS rate
68.4%
1.11
Goals for per game
1.43
63.0%
Scoring rate
75.0%
51.9%
BTTS rate
71.4%
2.33
Goals for per game
0.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
53
History Matches
57
1.30
Goals Mean
2.07
1.21
Goals Std
1.99
66.0%
Scored 1+ rate
82.5%
41.5%
Scored 2+ rate
49.1%
17.0%
Scored 3+ rate
28.1%
1.11
Venue Goals Mean
1.43
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.70
Goals against per game
2.00
77.4%
Conceding rate
86.0%
1.63
Goals against per game
2.25
77.8%
Conceding rate
96.4%
1.67
Goals against per game
1.33
66.7%
Conceding rate
100.0%
53
History Matches
57
1.70
Conceded Mean
2.00
1.52
Conceded Std
1.49
49.1%
Conceded 2+ rate
54.4%
20.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
33.3%
1.63
Venue Conceded Mean
2.25
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
22.6%
Clean-sheet rate
14.0%
34.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.5%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
3.6%
37.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
22.6%
Clean-sheet rate
14.0%
34.0%
Failed-to-score rate
17.5%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
3.6%
37.0%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
22.6%
Clean-sheet rate
14.0%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
53
History Matches
57
0.98
Result entropy
0.93
2.07
Goal Difference Std
2.63
1.99
Stability score
6.54
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
45
Eligible Matches
57
9
Lead Matches
18
66.7%
Lead Win Rate
77.8%
0.74
Lead Points Retention
0.81
20
Trailing Matches
21
15.0%
Non-loss rate
4.8%
5.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
45
Halftime Coverage Matches
57
0.53
First Half Goals For Mean
1.07
0.93
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.07
0.67
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.00
0.76
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.93
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.90
Rest days
77.94
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
4
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.00
29
Normal Rest History Matches
32
1.28
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.41
21
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.00
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.90
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.33
PPG
0.67
33.3%
Win rate
0.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
66.7%
33.3%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.70
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.94
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.33
Current Competition PPG
0.67
0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.67
7
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.40
Portability PPG Std
0.60
1.00
Portability PPG Range
1.55
55.45
Portability Score
45.58
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
53
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO35.75
PPG-0.10
GF-0.77
GA-0.30
PPG0.67
PPG0.29
PPG0.20
PPG0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-4
Clean-sheet rate8.6%
Failed-to-score rate16.4%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate18.7%
Failed-to-score rate12.0%
History Matches-4
Goals Mean-0.77
Goals Std-0.78
Scored 1+ rate-0.16
Scored 2+ rate-0.08
Scored 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Goals Mean-0.32
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.53
History Matches-4
Conceded Mean-0.30
Conceded Std0.04
Clean-sheet rate8.6%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.05
Conceded 3+ rate-0.13
Venue Conceded Mean-0.62
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std1.19
History Matches-4
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.56
Stability score-4.55
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.13
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std2.03
Eligible Matches-12
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate-0.11
Lead Points Retention-0.07
Trailing Matches-1
Non-loss rate10.2%
Trailing Win Rate5.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-12
First Half Goals For Mean-0.54
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.33
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.17
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.33
Competition Season Count2
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.20
Portability PPG Range-0.55
Portability Score9.87
Rest days-0.04
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.00
Normal Rest History Matches-3
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.13
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.10
Current Team ELO35.75
Current Opponent ELO-35.75
Current ELO Difference71.49
Expected score0.10
History Matches-4
Residual Mean0.03
Overperformance2.33
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.08

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Stade Payerne

L
Chênois3–1Stade Payerne31 Oct · away
Pick: Stade Payerne 40% · missed
D
Stade Payerne3–3Servette II24 Oct · home
Pick: Stade Payerne 38% · missed
L
Meyrin6–2Stade Payerne29 Aug · away
Pick: Meyrin 53% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Lausanne Sport II

L
Lausanne Sport II0–1Azzurri31 Oct · home
Pick: Lausanne Sport II 61% · missed
L
Chênois2–1Lausanne Sport II24 Oct · away
Pick: Chênois 50% · hit
D
Servette II2–2Lausanne Sport II4 Oct · away
Pick: Servette II 58% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Stade Payerne and Lausanne Sport II meet in 1. Liga Classic - Group 1 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Stade Payerne win 52.8%, draw 20.3%, Lausanne Sport II win 26.9%. The pick is Stade Payerne win. Over 2.5 goals: 68.0%. Both teams to score: 60.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.