ScoreProb
Jupiler Pro League Belgium Round 11 2026

Standard Liege vs SK Beveren

Standard Liege Home · Elo 1,532
Fri 6 Nov
UTC
Not started
SK Beveren Away · Elo 1,653
Maurice Dufrasnestadion Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Standard Liege win
Standard Liege winPick
52.5%
Draw
21.8%
SK Beveren win
25.7%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.7%
No45.3%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.1%
Under 2.543.9%

How much we know

Standard Liege history72 matches
SK Beveren history55 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    31 Oct · 08:40 UTC
  2. Re-published 15 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 06:57 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    6 Nov · 19:45 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (52.5%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Standard Liege are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • SK Beveren are rated 121 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,653 against 1,532. On rating alone SK Beveren would be expected to take 67% of the points on offer.

  • SK Beveren score far more

    1.19 goals a game over 72 matches for Standard Liege, against 2.13 over 55 for SK Beveren.

  • Defences are close

    Standard Liege concede 1.18 a game, SK Beveren 1.15.

  • SK Beveren games more often go over 2.5 goals

    44% of Standard Liege matches, against 67% for SK Beveren. The model puts this match at 56% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Standard Liege
SK Beveren
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1532.4
ELO
1653.4
72
ELO · Matches
55
1532.4
Current Team ELO
1653.4
1653.4
Current Opponent ELO
1532.4
-121.0
Current ELO Difference
121.0
0.33
Expected score
0.67
72
History Matches
55
0.02
Residual Mean
0.13
51.82
Overperformance
59.21
0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.20
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.60
PPG
1.80
1.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.80
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
1.50
2.10
Goals for per game
1.90
1.20
Goals against per game
2.10
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
2.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
2.07
Recent 10 Goals Std
2.30
1.20
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
1.17
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.51
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.63
2.77
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.09
Overall performance9 signals
90
72
Matches
55
1.36
PPG
2.24
36.1%
Win rate
70.9%
27.8%
Draw rate
10.9%
36.1%
Loss rate
18.2%
70.8%
Over 1.5 rate
83.6%
44.4%
Over 2.5 rate
67.3%
18.1%
Over 3.5 rate
38.2%
1.87
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.95
Venue performance10 signals
100
36
Matches
31
1.17
PPG
2.06
27.8%
Win rate
64.5%
33.3%
Draw rate
12.9%
38.9%
Loss rate
22.6%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
93.5%
38.9%
Over 2.5 rate
77.4%
11.1%
Over 3.5 rate
48.4%
1.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.36
36
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.19
Goals for per game
2.13
63.9%
Scoring rate
92.7%
43.1%
BTTS rate
58.2%
0.89
Goals for per game
2.35
61.1%
Scoring rate
90.3%
44.4%
BTTS rate
64.5%
2.33
Goals for per game
0.67
100.0%
Scoring rate
66.7%
66.7%
BTTS rate
33.3%
72
History Matches
55
1.19
Goals Mean
2.13
1.30
Goals Std
1.44
63.9%
Scored 1+ rate
92.7%
34.7%
Scored 2+ rate
65.5%
11.1%
Scored 3+ rate
27.3%
0.89
Venue Goals Mean
2.35
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.18
Goals against per game
1.15
69.4%
Conceding rate
65.5%
1.14
Goals against per game
1.39
69.4%
Conceding rate
74.2%
1.67
Goals against per game
2.00
66.7%
Conceding rate
66.7%
72
History Matches
55
1.18
Conceded Mean
1.15
1.10
Conceded Std
1.12
30.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
32.7%
13.9%
Conceded 3+ rate
10.9%
1.14
Venue Conceded Mean
1.39
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
34.5%
36.1%
Failed-to-score rate
7.3%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
38.9%
Failed-to-score rate
9.7%
33.3%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
34.5%
36.1%
Failed-to-score rate
7.3%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
25.8%
38.9%
Failed-to-score rate
9.7%
30.6%
Clean-sheet rate
34.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
72
History Matches
55
0.99
Result entropy
0.72
1.87
Goal Difference Std
1.95
0.65
Stability score
27.60
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
72
Eligible Matches
54
19
Lead Matches
25
84.2%
Lead Win Rate
84.0%
0.89
Lead Points Retention
0.88
15
Trailing Matches
10
13.3%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
6.7%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
72
Halftime Coverage Matches
54
0.60
First Half Goals For Mean
0.96
0.53
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.50
0.60
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.20
0.65
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.65
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.04
Rest days
76.24
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
3
Short Rest History Matches
6
2.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.67
35
Normal Rest History Matches
25
1.11
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.32
33
Long Rest History Matches
23
1.52
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.35
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.67
PPG
1.00
33.3%
Win rate
33.3%
66.7%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
0.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.67
Current Competition PPG
1.00
0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.33
6
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.39
Portability PPG Std
0.64
1.04
Portability PPG Range
1.75
56.18
Portability Score
43.80
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
72
Clean History Matches
55
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-121.0
PPG-0.88
GF-0.93
GA0.04
PPG0.67
PPG-0.90
PPG-0.20
PPG0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches17
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Failed-to-score rate28.8%
History Matches5
Clean-sheet rate4.7%
Failed-to-score rate29.2%
History Matches17
Goals Mean-0.93
Goals Std-0.14
Scored 1+ rate-0.29
Scored 2+ rate-0.31
Scored 3+ rate-0.16
Venue Goals Mean-1.47
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.23
History Matches17
Conceded Mean0.04
Conceded Std-0.02
Clean-sheet rate-0.04
Conceded 2+ rate-0.02
Conceded 3+ rate3.0%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.25
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.35
History Matches17
Result entropy0.27
Goal Difference Std-0.07
Stability score-26.95
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.31
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.32
Eligible Matches18
Lead Matches-6
Lead Win Rate0.2%
Lead Points Retention0.01
Trailing Matches5
Non-loss rate-0.27
Trailing Win Rate-0.13
Halftime Coverage Matches18
First Half Goals For Mean-0.37
First Half Goals Against Mean0.03
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.61
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.00
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.67
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.25
Portability PPG Range-0.71
Portability Score12.37
Rest days0.80
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match0.33
Normal Rest History Matches10
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.21
Long Rest History Matches10
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.83
Current Team ELO-121.0
Current Opponent ELO121.0
Current ELO Difference-241.9
Expected score-0.33
History Matches17
Residual Mean-0.10
Overperformance-7.39
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.24

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Standard Liege

D
Standard Liege1–1Kortrijk31 Oct · home
Pick: Standard Liege 55% · missed
L
Genk2–1Standard Liege25 Oct · away
Pick: Genk 48% · hit
W
Standard Liege2–0Dender16 Oct · home
Pick: Standard Liege 51% · hit
W
OH Leuven1–2Standard Liege29 Aug · away
Pick: Standard Liege 49% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

SK Beveren

L
SK Beveren1–2Union St. Gilloise31 Oct · home
Pick: Union St. Gilloise 60% · hit
D
KVC Westerlo4–4SK Beveren24 Oct · away
Pick: SK Beveren 45% · missed
W
SK Beveren3–0Habay-la-Neuve16 Oct · home
Pick: SK Beveren 71% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Standard Liege and SK Beveren meet in Jupiler Pro League on Friday 6 November 2026, kickoff 19:45 UTC. The match is played at Maurice Dufrasnestadion. ScoreProb published its prediction on 31 Oct, 08:40 UTC: Standard Liege win 52.5%, draw 21.8%, SK Beveren win 25.7%. The pick is Standard Liege win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.1%. Both teams to score: 54.7%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.