ScoreProb
Jupiler Pro League Belgium Round 11 2026

Club Brugge KV vs Anderlecht

Club Brugge KV Home · Elo 1,667
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Anderlecht Away · Elo 1,567
Jan Breydel Stadion, Brugge Referee: J. Vergoote Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Club Brugge KV win
Club Brugge KV winPick
62.1%
Draw
22.3%
Anderlecht win
15.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live score and events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes52.3%
No47.7%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.562.1%
Under 2.537.9%

How much we know

Club Brugge KV history96 matches
Anderlecht history84 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 12:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (62.1%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,851 matches.

Why Club Brugge KV are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Club Brugge KV are rated 100 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,667 against 1,567. On rating alone Club Brugge KV would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Club Brugge KV score more

    2.13 goals a game over 96 matches for Club Brugge KV, against 1.44 over 84 for Anderlecht.

  • Defences are close

    Club Brugge KV concede 1.30 a game, Anderlecht 1.35.

  • Club Brugge KV games more often go over 2.5 goals

    70% of Club Brugge KV matches, against 49% for Anderlecht. The model puts this match at 62% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Club Brugge KV
Anderlecht
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1667.1
ELO
1566.8
96
ELO · Matches
84
1667.1
Current Team ELO
1566.8
1566.8
Current Opponent ELO
1667.1
100.3
Current ELO Difference
-100.3
0.64
Expected score
0.36
96
History Matches
84
0.09
Residual Mean
0.04
57.15
Overperformance
53.29
-0.06
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.30
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.40
1.80
Goals for per game
1.80
0.60
Goals against per game
1.00
60.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
2.00
2.30
Goals for per game
1.70
1.30
Goals against per game
1.40
50.0%
Win rate
60.0%
2.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.35
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.19
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.19
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.36
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
2.10
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.68
Overall performance9 signals
90
96
Matches
84
1.94
PPG
1.40
59.4%
Win rate
39.3%
15.6%
Draw rate
22.6%
25.0%
Loss rate
38.1%
84.4%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
69.8%
Over 2.5 rate
48.8%
41.7%
Over 3.5 rate
34.5%
1.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.77
Venue performance10 signals
100
49
Matches
42
2.18
PPG
1.02
67.3%
Win rate
26.2%
16.3%
Draw rate
23.8%
16.3%
Loss rate
50.0%
85.7%
Over 1.5 rate
81.0%
69.4%
Over 2.5 rate
40.5%
44.9%
Over 3.5 rate
26.2%
1.93
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.69
49
History Matches
42
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.13
Goals for per game
1.44
88.5%
Scoring rate
73.8%
62.5%
BTTS rate
51.2%
2.51
Goals for per game
1.10
93.9%
Scoring rate
66.7%
59.2%
BTTS rate
47.6%
2.33
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
50.0%
0.0%
BTTS rate
50.0%
96
History Matches
84
2.13
Goals Mean
1.44
1.50
Goals Std
1.28
88.5%
Scored 1+ rate
73.8%
61.5%
Scored 2+ rate
40.5%
32.3%
Scored 3+ rate
19.0%
2.51
Venue Goals Mean
1.10
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.30
Goals against per game
1.35
72.9%
Conceding rate
71.4%
1.20
Goals against per game
1.57
65.3%
Conceding rate
81.0%
0.00
Goals against per game
1.00
0.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
96
History Matches
84
1.30
Conceded Mean
1.35
1.14
Conceded Std
1.17
35.4%
Conceded 2+ rate
42.9%
17.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
13.1%
1.20
Venue Conceded Mean
1.57
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
27.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
11.5%
Failed-to-score rate
26.2%
34.7%
Clean-sheet rate
19.0%
6.1%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
100.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
27.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
11.5%
Failed-to-score rate
26.2%
34.7%
Clean-sheet rate
19.0%
6.1%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
27.1%
Clean-sheet rate
28.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
96
History Matches
84
0.86
Result entropy
0.97
1.96
Goal Difference Std
1.77
13.88
Stability score
2.52
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
96
Eligible Matches
84
44
Lead Matches
20
81.8%
Lead Win Rate
80.0%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.85
21
Trailing Matches
31
38.1%
Non-loss rate
19.4%
23.8%
Trailing Win Rate
12.9%
Goal timing5 signals
50
96
Halftime Coverage Matches
84
1.10
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.55
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.71
1.02
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.89
0.75
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.63
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
76.83
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
9
Short Rest History Matches
19
2.44
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.21
65
Normal Rest History Matches
42
1.78
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.50
21
Long Rest History Matches
22
2.29
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.32
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
2
3.00
PPG
1.50
100.0%
Win rate
50.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
50.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
0.0%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.00
3
Current Competition Matches
2
3.00
Current Competition PPG
1.50
2.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.00
11
Competition Season Count
10
8
Eligible Competition Season Count
7
0.62
Portability PPG Std
0.60
2.20
Portability PPG Range
2.17
44.53
Portability Score
45.28
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
96
Clean History Matches
84
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO100.3
PPG0.53
GF0.68
GA-0.04
PPG1.50
PPG1.16
PPG-0.40
PPG-0.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches12
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Failed-to-score rate-0.15
History Matches7
Clean-sheet rate15.6%
Failed-to-score rate-0.27
History Matches12
Goals Mean0.68
Goals Std0.22
Scored 1+ rate14.7%
Scored 2+ rate21.0%
Scored 3+ rate13.2%
Venue Goals Mean1.41
Recent 10 Goals Mean0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.16
History Matches12
Conceded Mean-0.04
Conceded Std-0.03
Clean-sheet rate-0.01
Conceded 2+ rate-0.07
Conceded 3+ rate4.6%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.37
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.17
History Matches12
Result entropy-0.11
Goal Difference Std0.19
Stability score11.36
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.42
Eligible Matches12
Lead Matches24
Lead Win Rate1.8%
Lead Points Retention0.00
Trailing Matches-10
Non-loss rate18.7%
Trailing Win Rate10.9%
Halftime Coverage Matches12
First Half Goals For Mean0.56
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.16
Second Half Goals For Mean0.13
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.12
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.33
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std0.02
Portability PPG Range0.03
Portability Score-0.75
Rest days-7.21
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-10
Short Rest Points Per Match1.23
Normal Rest History Matches23
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.28
Long Rest History Matches-1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.97
Current Team ELO100.3
Current Opponent ELO-100.3
Current ELO Difference200.5
Expected score0.28
History Matches12
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.86
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.36

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Club Brugge KV

W
Zulte Waregem2–4Club Brugge KV30 Oct · away
Pick: Club Brugge KV 50% · hit
W
Club Brugge KV3–2St. Truiden25 Oct · home
Pick: Club Brugge KV 69% · hit
W
Club Brugge KV3–0Lens21 Oct · home
Pick: Club Brugge KV 65% · hit
W
Club Brugge KV1–0Lokeren-Temse17 Oct · home
Pick: Club Brugge KV 68% · hit
W
Inter3–4Club Brugge KV13 Oct · away
Pick: Inter 38% · missed

Anderlecht

W
Anderlecht4–1KVC Westerlo31 Oct · home
Pick: Anderlecht 59% · hit
L
Gent4–0Anderlecht25 Oct · away
Pick: Gent 52% · hit
W
Jagiellonia0–3Anderlecht22 Oct · away
Pick: Jagiellonia 51% · missed
L
Beerschot VA2–1Anderlecht18 Oct · away
Pick: Anderlecht 44% · missed
L
Dinamo Zagreb1–0Anderlecht15 Oct · away
Pick: Dinamo Zagreb 43% · hit

About this match

Club Brugge KV and Anderlecht meet in Jupiler Pro League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 12:30 UTC. The match is played at Jan Breydel Stadion, Brugge. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Club Brugge KV win 62.1%, draw 22.3%, Anderlecht win 15.6%. The pick is Club Brugge KV win. Over 2.5 goals: 62.1%. Both teams to score: 52.3%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.