ScoreProb
Second Amateur Division - ACFF Belgium ACFF - 12 2026

Stockay-Warfusée vs Stade Mouscronnois

Stockay-Warfusée Home · Elo 1,417
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Stade Mouscronnois Away · Elo 1,514
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Stockay-Warfusée win
Stockay-Warfusée winPick
51.2%
Draw
17.4%
Stade Mouscronnois win
31.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · the live score only: events are not provided for this competition by our data source
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes45.0%
No55.0%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.556.6%
Under 2.543.4%

How much we know

Stockay-Warfusée history46 matches
Stade Mouscronnois history3 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Stockay-Warfusée are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Stade Mouscronnois are rated 97 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,514 against 1,417. On rating alone Stade Mouscronnois would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Stade Mouscronnois score more

    1.11 goals a game over 46 matches for Stockay-Warfusée, against 1.67 over 3 for Stade Mouscronnois.

  • Stade Mouscronnois concede fewer

    Stockay-Warfusée concede 1.70 a game, Stade Mouscronnois 1.00.

  • Stockay-Warfusée games more often go over 2.5 goals

    59% of Stockay-Warfusée matches, against 33% for Stade Mouscronnois. The model puts this match at 57% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Stockay-Warfusée
Stade Mouscronnois
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1417.3
ELO
1513.9
46
ELO · Matches
3
1417.3
Current Team ELO
1513.9
1513.9
Current Opponent ELO
1417.3
-96.58
Current ELO Difference
96.58
0.36
Expected score
0.64
46
History Matches
3
-0.09
Residual Mean
0.20
43.54
Overperformance
52.61
-0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.20
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
3
0.60
PPG
2.00
1.00
Goals for per game
1.67
1.60
Goals against per game
1.00
20.0%
Win rate
66.7%
10
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
2.00
1.60
Goals for per game
1.67
1.80
Goals against per game
1.00
30.0%
Win rate
66.7%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.67
1.11
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.70
1.80
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.08
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.82
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.58
1.89
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.05
Overall performance9 signals
90
46
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
2.00
28.3%
Win rate
66.7%
15.2%
Draw rate
0.0%
56.5%
Loss rate
33.3%
73.9%
Over 1.5 rate
66.7%
58.7%
Over 2.5 rate
33.3%
26.1%
Over 3.5 rate
33.3%
1.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
Venue performance10 signals
100
22
Matches
2
1.14
PPG
1.50
31.8%
Win rate
50.0%
18.2%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
50.0%
59.1%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
45.5%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
27.3%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.50
22
History Matches
2
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.11
Goals for per game
1.67
65.2%
Scoring rate
66.7%
47.8%
BTTS rate
33.3%
1.00
Goals for per game
2.00
54.5%
Scoring rate
50.0%
27.3%
BTTS rate
50.0%
—
Goals for per game
0.00
—
Scoring rate
0.0%
—
BTTS rate
0.0%
46
History Matches
3
1.11
Goals Mean
1.67
1.05
Goals Std
1.70
65.2%
Scored 1+ rate
66.7%
32.6%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
10.9%
Scored 3+ rate
33.3%
1.00
Venue Goals Mean
2.00
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.70
Goals against per game
1.00
80.4%
Conceding rate
66.7%
1.45
Goals against per game
1.50
68.2%
Conceding rate
100.0%
—
Goals against per game
2.00
—
Conceding rate
100.0%
46
History Matches
3
1.70
Conceded Mean
1.00
1.23
Conceded Std
0.82
56.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
33.3%
21.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
0.0%
1.45
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
19.6%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
34.8%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
31.8%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
45.5%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
—
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
—
Failed-to-score rate
100.0%
19.6%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
34.8%
Failed-to-score rate
33.3%
31.8%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
45.5%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
19.6%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
46
History Matches
3
0.88
Result entropy
0.58
1.65
Goal Difference Std
2.05
12.06
Stability score
42.06
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
46
Eligible Matches
2
10
Lead Matches
0
80.0%
Lead Win Rate
—
0.83
Lead Points Retention
—
16
Trailing Matches
1
18.8%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
46
Halftime Coverage Matches
2
0.63
First Half Goals For Mean
0.00
0.78
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
0.48
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.50
0.91
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
182.0
Rest days
77.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
25
Normal Rest History Matches
0
1.24
Normal Rest Points Per Match
—
20
Long Rest History Matches
2
0.60
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.50
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0
Matches
1
—
PPG
0.00
—
Win rate
0.0%
—
Draw rate
0.0%
—
Loss rate
100.0%
—
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
—
Over 2.5 rate
0.0%
—
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
0
Current Competition Matches
1
—
Current Competition PPG
0.00
—
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.00
2
Competition Season Count
3
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
0
0.21
Portability PPG Std
—
0.41
Portability PPG Range
—
70.89
Portability Score
—
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
46
Clean History Matches
3
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreLead Win RateLead Points RetentionCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanPortability PPG StdPortability PPG RangePortability ScoreShort Rest Points Per MatchNormal Rest Points Per Match
ELO-96.58
PPG-1.00
GF-0.56
GA0.70
PPG-0.36
PPG-1.40
PPG-1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches43
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate1.4%
History Matches20
Clean-sheet rate31.8%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches43
Goals Mean-0.56
Goals Std-0.65
Scored 1+ rate-0.01
Scored 2+ rate-0.01
Scored 3+ rate-0.22
Venue Goals Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.07
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.59
History Matches43
Conceded Mean0.70
Conceded Std0.41
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Conceded 2+ rate23.2%
Conceded 3+ rate21.7%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.05
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.26
History Matches43
Result entropy0.30
Goal Difference Std-0.41
Stability score-30.00
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.24
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.17
Eligible Matches44
Lead Matches10
Trailing Matches15
Non-loss rate18.8%
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches44
First Half Goals For Mean0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.02
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.91
Current Competition Matches-1
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count2
Rest days105.0
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches25
Long Rest History Matches18
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.90
Current Team ELO-96.58
Current Opponent ELO96.58
Current ELO Difference-193.2
Expected score-0.27
History Matches43
Residual Mean-0.29
Overperformance-9.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.33

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Stockay-Warfusée

L
RUS Binche1–0Stockay-Warfusée1 Nov · away
Pick: RUS Binche 39% · hit
W
Stockay-Warfusée3–1AS Eupen II25 Oct · home
Pick: Stockay-Warfusée 53% · hit
L
SG-Tertre-Hautrage3–0Stockay-Warfusée18 Oct · away
Pick: SG-Tertre-Hautrage 44% · hit
L
Stade Verviers3–1Stockay-Warfusée29 Aug · away
Pick: Stade Verviers 43% · hit
W
Stockay-Warfusée2–0Huy26 Aug · home
Pick: Stockay-Warfusée 39% · hit

Stade Mouscronnois

W
Stade Mouscronnois2–1Stade Verviers31 Oct · home
Pick: Draw 37% · missed
L
Huy6–1Stade Mouscronnois24 Oct · away
Pick: Huy 54% · hit
W
Stade Mouscronnois6–2Richelle United17 Oct · home
Pick: Stade Mouscronnois 39% · hit
D
Stade Mouscronnois1–1AS Eupen II29 Aug · home
Pick: Stade Mouscronnois 50% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Stockay-Warfusée and Stade Mouscronnois meet in Second Amateur Division - ACFF on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Stockay-Warfusée win 51.2%, draw 17.4%, Stade Mouscronnois win 31.4%. The pick is Stockay-Warfusée win. Over 2.5 goals: 56.6%. Both teams to score: 45.0%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.