ScoreProb
Second Amateur Division - ACFF Belgium ACFF - 12 2026

Ganshoren vs Acren-Lessines

Ganshoren Home · Elo 1,585
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Acren-Lessines Away · Elo 1,488
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Ganshoren win
Ganshoren winPick
57.9%
Draw
19.5%
Acren-Lessines win
22.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Lineups · not provided for this competition by our data source
Live score and events · the live score only: events are not provided for this competition by our data source
Live stats · not provided for this competition by our data source
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes59.6%
No40.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.0%
Under 2.536.0%

How much we know

Ganshoren history47 matches
Acren-Lessines history43 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 5 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 14:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (57.9%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Ganshoren are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Ganshoren are rated 96 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,585 against 1,488. On rating alone Ganshoren would be expected to take 64% of the points on offer.

  • Acren-Lessines score more

    1.64 goals a game over 47 matches for Ganshoren, against 1.84 over 43 for Acren-Lessines.

  • Ganshoren concede fewer

    Ganshoren concede 0.89 a game, Acren-Lessines 1.70.

  • Acren-Lessines games more often go over 2.5 goals

    43% of Ganshoren matches, against 79% for Acren-Lessines. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Ganshoren
Acren-Lessines
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1584.7
ELO
1488.4
47
ELO · Matches
43
1584.7
Current Team ELO
1488.4
1488.4
Current Opponent ELO
1584.7
96.32
Current ELO Difference
-96.32
0.64
Expected score
0.36
47
History Matches
43
0.08
Residual Mean
-0.01
55.54
Overperformance
49.44
0.19
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
2.40
PPG
1.80
3.00
Goals for per game
2.60
1.80
Goals against per game
1.40
80.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
2.40
PPG
1.10
3.30
Goals for per game
2.00
1.30
Goals against per game
2.10
80.0%
Win rate
30.0%
3.30
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.00
1.55
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.00
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.10
1.19
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.30
0.46
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.94
2.24
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.26
Overall performance9 signals
90
47
Matches
43
1.68
PPG
1.44
44.7%
Win rate
39.5%
34.0%
Draw rate
25.6%
21.3%
Loss rate
34.9%
63.8%
Over 1.5 rate
86.0%
42.6%
Over 2.5 rate
79.1%
34.0%
Over 3.5 rate
62.8%
1.78
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.73
Venue performance10 signals
100
21
Matches
20
1.48
PPG
1.45
38.1%
Win rate
35.0%
33.3%
Draw rate
40.0%
28.6%
Loss rate
25.0%
61.9%
Over 1.5 rate
85.0%
38.1%
Over 2.5 rate
70.0%
23.8%
Over 3.5 rate
55.0%
2.03
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.70
21
History Matches
20
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.64
Goals for per game
1.84
59.6%
Scoring rate
83.7%
44.7%
BTTS rate
74.4%
1.48
Goals for per game
1.60
57.1%
Scoring rate
75.0%
38.1%
BTTS rate
65.0%
5.00
Goals for per game
—
100.0%
Scoring rate
—
100.0%
BTTS rate
—
47
History Matches
43
1.64
Goals Mean
1.84
1.71
Goals Std
1.24
59.6%
Scored 1+ rate
83.7%
44.7%
Scored 2+ rate
58.1%
34.0%
Scored 3+ rate
32.6%
1.48
Venue Goals Mean
1.60
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
0.89
Goals against per game
1.70
61.7%
Conceding rate
79.1%
0.76
Goals against per game
1.50
61.9%
Conceding rate
75.0%
2.00
Goals against per game
—
100.0%
Conceding rate
—
47
History Matches
43
0.89
Conceded Mean
1.70
0.90
Conceded Std
1.21
21.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
58.1%
4.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
23.3%
0.76
Venue Conceded Mean
1.50
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
38.3%
Clean-sheet rate
20.9%
40.4%
Failed-to-score rate
16.3%
38.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
—
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
—
38.3%
Clean-sheet rate
20.9%
40.4%
Failed-to-score rate
16.3%
38.1%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
42.9%
Failed-to-score rate
25.0%
38.3%
Clean-sheet rate
20.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
47
History Matches
43
0.96
Result entropy
0.99
1.78
Goal Difference Std
1.73
3.87
Stability score
1.42
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
29
Eligible Matches
27
12
Lead Matches
13
83.3%
Lead Win Rate
46.2%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.54
5
Trailing Matches
3
20.0%
Non-loss rate
33.3%
20.0%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
29
Halftime Coverage Matches
27
0.86
First Half Goals For Mean
1.11
0.38
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.56
0.90
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.85
0.69
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.48
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
77.83
Rest days
196.0
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
30
Normal Rest History Matches
31
1.73
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.39
15
Long Rest History Matches
11
1.53
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.64
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1
Matches
0
3.00
PPG
—
100.0%
Win rate
—
0.0%
Draw rate
—
0.0%
Loss rate
—
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
—
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
—
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
—
1
Current Competition Matches
0
3.00
Current Competition PPG
—
3.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
—
3
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.33
Portability PPG Std
0.25
0.66
Portability PPG Range
0.51
60.36
Portability Score
66.42
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
47
Clean History Matches
43
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO96.32
PPG0.24
GF-0.20
GA-0.80
PPG0.03
PPG0.60
PPG1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches4
Clean-sheet rate17.4%
Failed-to-score rate24.1%
History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate13.1%
Failed-to-score rate17.9%
History Matches4
Goals Mean-0.20
Goals Std0.47
Scored 1+ rate-0.24
Scored 2+ rate-0.13
Scored 3+ rate1.5%
Venue Goals Mean-0.12
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.30
Recent 10 Goals Std0.55
History Matches4
Conceded Mean-0.80
Conceded Std-0.31
Clean-sheet rate17.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.37
Conceded 3+ rate-0.19
Venue Conceded Mean-0.74
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.80
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.11
History Matches4
Result entropy-0.02
Goal Difference Std0.05
Stability score2.45
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.48
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.02
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate37.2%
Lead Points Retention0.29
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.13
Trailing Win Rate20.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean-0.25
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.18
Second Half Goals For Mean0.04
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.79
Current Competition Matches1
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.08
Portability PPG Range0.15
Portability Score-6.06
Rest days-118.2
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches-1
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.35
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.10
Current Team ELO96.32
Current Opponent ELO-96.32
Current ELO Difference192.6
Expected score0.27
History Matches4
Residual Mean0.09
Overperformance6.10
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.31

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Ganshoren

W
Ganshoren2–1Aywaille25 Oct · home
Pick: Ganshoren 73% · hit
L
La Calamine1–0Ganshoren17 Oct · away
Pick: Ganshoren 43% · missed
L
RUS Binche2–1Ganshoren4 Oct · away
Pick: Ganshoren 50% · missed
L
Ganshoren1–4Jette30 Aug · home
Pick: Ganshoren 60% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Acren-Lessines

L
Acren-Lessines0–1Ostiches1 Nov · home
Pick: Ostiches 41% · hit
W
Entité Manageoise2–3Acren-Lessines25 Oct · away
Pick: Entité Manageoise 40% · missed
D
Acren-Lessines1–1Jette18 Oct · home
Pick: Acren-Lessines 39% · missed
W
Acren-Lessines4–1Union Namur4 Oct · home
Pick: Acren-Lessines 41% · hit
L
RUS Binche2–1Acren-Lessines30 Aug · away
Pick: RUS Binche 42% · hit

About this match

Ganshoren and Acren-Lessines meet in Second Amateur Division - ACFF on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 14:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Ganshoren win 57.9%, draw 19.5%, Acren-Lessines win 22.6%. The pick is Ganshoren win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.0%. Both teams to score: 59.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.