ScoreProb
Football League - Highland League Scotland Highland League - 17 2026

Strathspey Thistle vs Deveronvale

Strathspey Thistle Home · Elo 1,412
Fri 13 Nov
UTC
Not started
Deveronvale Away · Elo 1,381
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Strathspey Thistle win
Strathspey Thistle winPick
50.7%
Draw
19.3%
Deveronvale win
30.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes60.1%
No39.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.569.4%
Under 2.530.6%

How much we know

Strathspey Thistle history48 matches
Deveronvale history47 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 11 h ahead
    7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    13 Nov · 20:00 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (50.7%). Picks in that band won 55.7% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,845 matches.

Why Strathspey Thistle are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Strathspey Thistle are rated 31 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,412 against 1,381. On rating alone Strathspey Thistle would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.

  • Scoring rates are level

    1.19 goals a game over 48 matches for Strathspey Thistle, against 1.17 over 47 for Deveronvale.

  • Defences are close

    Strathspey Thistle concede 2.50 a game, Deveronvale 2.57.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    73% of Strathspey Thistle matches, against 74% for Deveronvale. The model puts this match at 69% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Strathspey Thistle
Deveronvale@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1411.6
ELO
1380.9
48
ELO · Matches
47
1411.6
Current Team ELO
1380.9
1380.9
Current Opponent ELO
1411.6
30.65
Current ELO Difference
-30.65
0.54
Expected score
0.46
48
History Matches
47
-0.08
Residual Mean
-0.13
44.48
Overperformance
40.95
-0.07
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.14
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.80
PPG
0.80
1.00
Goals for per game
1.00
1.80
Goals against per game
1.40
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
0.70
0.90
Goals for per game
1.00
1.70
Goals against per game
2.60
20.0%
Win rate
20.0%
0.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.00
0.70
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.10
1.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.60
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std
2.24
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
1.60
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.87
Overall performance9 signals
90
48
Matches
47
0.94
PPG
0.81
27.1%
Win rate
23.4%
12.5%
Draw rate
10.6%
60.4%
Loss rate
66.0%
91.7%
Over 1.5 rate
87.2%
72.9%
Over 2.5 rate
74.5%
45.8%
Over 3.5 rate
51.1%
2.65
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.35
Venue performance10 signals
100
27
Matches
25
1.00
PPG
0.80
29.6%
Win rate
24.0%
11.1%
Draw rate
8.0%
59.3%
Loss rate
68.0%
85.2%
Over 1.5 rate
88.0%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
72.0%
33.3%
Over 3.5 rate
52.0%
2.32
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.73
27
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.19
Goals for per game
1.17
70.8%
Scoring rate
63.8%
58.3%
BTTS rate
57.4%
1.15
Goals for per game
1.04
70.4%
Scoring rate
48.0%
51.9%
BTTS rate
48.0%
1.14
Goals for per game
0.83
85.7%
Scoring rate
50.0%
71.4%
BTTS rate
33.3%
48
History Matches
47
1.19
Goals Mean
1.17
1.11
Goals Std
1.21
70.8%
Scored 1+ rate
63.8%
27.1%
Scored 2+ rate
29.8%
16.7%
Scored 3+ rate
19.1%
1.15
Venue Goals Mean
1.04
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.50
Goals against per game
2.57
85.4%
Conceding rate
91.5%
2.11
Goals against per game
2.80
77.8%
Conceding rate
100.0%
1.57
Goals against per game
1.67
85.7%
Conceding rate
83.3%
48
History Matches
47
2.50
Conceded Mean
2.57
1.98
Conceded Std
1.77
64.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
70.2%
41.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
44.7%
2.11
Venue Conceded Mean
2.80
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
14.6%
Clean-sheet rate
8.5%
29.2%
Failed-to-score rate
36.2%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
29.6%
Failed-to-score rate
52.0%
14.3%
Clean-sheet rate
16.7%
14.3%
Failed-to-score rate
50.0%
14.6%
Clean-sheet rate
8.5%
29.2%
Failed-to-score rate
36.2%
22.2%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
29.6%
Failed-to-score rate
52.0%
14.6%
Clean-sheet rate
8.5%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
48
History Matches
47
0.84
Result entropy
0.78
2.65
Goal Difference Std
2.35
16.43
Stability score
22.38
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
40
Eligible Matches
41
11
Lead Matches
7
81.8%
Lead Win Rate
57.1%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.62
23
Trailing Matches
21
13.0%
Non-loss rate
19.0%
4.3%
Trailing Win Rate
9.5%
Goal timing5 signals
50
40
Halftime Coverage Matches
41
0.48
First Half Goals For Mean
0.39
1.30
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.07
0.78
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.80
1.20
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.44
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.25
Rest days
83.25
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
12
Short Rest History Matches
8
1.42
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.50
22
Normal Rest History Matches
28
0.82
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.14
13
Long Rest History Matches
10
0.77
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.20
Competition & season17 signals
170
7
Matches
6
1.00
PPG
0.67
28.6%
Win rate
16.7%
14.3%
Draw rate
16.7%
57.1%
Loss rate
66.7%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
83.3%
57.1%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
14.3%
Over 3.5 rate
0.0%
1.40
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.03
7
Current Competition Matches
6
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.67
-0.43
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-0.83
4
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.17
Portability PPG Std
0.35
0.38
Portability PPG Range
0.84
75.15
Portability Score
58.91
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
48
Clean History Matches
47
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO30.65
PPG0.13
GF0.02
GA-0.07
PPG0.33
PPG0.20
PPG0.00
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate6.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.07
History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate22.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.22
History Matches1
Goals Mean0.02
Goals Std-0.10
Scored 1+ rate7.0%
Scored 2+ rate-0.03
Scored 3+ rate-0.02
Venue Goals Mean0.11
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.40
History Matches1
Conceded Mean-0.07
Conceded Std0.21
Clean-sheet rate6.1%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.06
Conceded 3+ rate-0.03
Venue Conceded Mean-0.69
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-1.14
History Matches1
Result entropy0.06
Goal Difference Std0.31
Stability score-5.95
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-1.27
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches4
Lead Win Rate24.7%
Lead Points Retention0.23
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate-0.06
Trailing Win Rate-0.05
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.08
First Half Goals Against Mean0.23
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.03
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.24
Current Competition Matches1
Current Competition PPG0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.40
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.18
Portability PPG Range-0.46
Portability Score16.24
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match0.92
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.32
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.57
Current Team ELO30.65
Current Opponent ELO-30.65
Current ELO Difference61.30
Expected score0.09
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.53
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Strathspey Thistle

L
Clachnacuddin3–1Strathspey Thistle31 Oct · away
Pick: Clachnacuddin 74% · hit
D
Strathspey Thistle2–2Lossiemouth16 Oct · home
Pick: Strathspey Thistle 40% · missed
L
Nairn County3–2Strathspey Thistle7 Oct · away
Pick: Nairn County 44% · hit
W
Strathspey Thistle3–0Huntly29 Aug · home
Pick: Huntly 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Deveronvale

W
Rothes0–3Deveronvale24 Oct · away
Pick: Deveronvale 70% · hit
W
Buckie Thistle2–3Deveronvale17 Oct · away
Pick: Buckie Thistle 84% · missed
L
Formartine United2–1Deveronvale7 Oct · away
Pick: Formartine United 78% · hit
D
Nairn County0–0Deveronvale29 Aug · away
Pick: Nairn County 53% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Strathspey Thistle and Deveronvale meet in Football League - Highland League on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 20:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Strathspey Thistle win 50.7%, draw 19.3%, Deveronvale win 30.0%. The pick is Strathspey Thistle win. Over 2.5 goals: 69.4%. Both teams to score: 60.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.