Sturm Graz W vs First Vienna W
Match result probability Model pick: Sturm Graz W win
Sturm Graz W winPick
60.8%
Draw
20.7%
First Vienna W win
18.5%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes57.0%
No43.0%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.560.0%
Under 2.540.0%
How much we know
Sturm Graz W history40 matches
First Vienna W history37 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Sturm Graz W
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 16:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre13 Nov · 17:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 60–69% band (60.8%). Picks in that band won 63.6% of the time, and the model said 64.3% on average, over 1,914 matches.
Why Sturm Graz W are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Sturm Graz W are rated 27 Elo points higher
Elo 1,557 against 1,530. On rating alone Sturm Graz W would be expected to take 54% of the points on offer.
-
Scoring rates are level
1.83 goals a game over 40 matches for Sturm Graz W, against 1.70 over 37 for First Vienna W.
-
Sturm Graz W concede fewer
Sturm Graz W concede 1.30 a game, First Vienna W 1.65.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
50% of Sturm Graz W matches, against 57% for First Vienna W. The model puts this match at 60% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
First Vienna W@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1557.5
ELO
1530.1
40
ELO · Matches
37
1557.5
Current Team ELO
1530.1
1530.1
Current Opponent ELO
1557.5
27.40
Current ELO Difference
-27.40
0.54
Expected score
0.46
40
History Matches
37
0.07
Residual Mean
0.05
54.75
Overperformance
53.09
0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.29
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.20
PPG
1.80
2.60
Goals for per game
2.00
1.00
Goals against per game
1.40
60.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
2.40
1.80
Goals for per game
2.40
1.50
Goals against per game
1.00
40.0%
Win rate
70.0%
1.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.40
1.54
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.80
1.50
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.00
1.12
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.00
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
1.85
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.11
Overall performance9 signals 90
40
Matches
37
1.70
PPG
1.46
52.5%
Win rate
40.5%
12.5%
Draw rate
24.3%
35.0%
Loss rate
35.1%
80.0%
Over 1.5 rate
86.5%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
56.8%
35.0%
Over 3.5 rate
40.5%
1.88
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.36
Venue performance10 signals 100
20
Matches
17
1.55
PPG
1.18
45.0%
Win rate
29.4%
20.0%
Draw rate
29.4%
35.0%
Loss rate
41.2%
85.0%
Over 1.5 rate
94.1%
60.0%
Over 2.5 rate
58.8%
45.0%
Over 3.5 rate
41.2%
1.85
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.98
20
History Matches
17
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
1.83
Goals for per game
1.70
77.5%
Scoring rate
73.0%
47.5%
BTTS rate
51.4%
2.10
Goals for per game
1.71
80.0%
Scoring rate
76.5%
60.0%
BTTS rate
70.6%
2.75
Goals for per game
1.75
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
50.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
40
History Matches
37
1.83
Goals Mean
1.70
1.61
Goals Std
1.67
77.5%
Scored 1+ rate
73.0%
50.0%
Scored 2+ rate
45.9%
25.0%
Scored 3+ rate
29.7%
2.10
Venue Goals Mean
1.71
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.30
Goals against per game
1.65
70.0%
Conceding rate
75.7%
1.50
Goals against per game
1.76
80.0%
Conceding rate
94.1%
0.75
Goals against per game
1.25
50.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
40
History Matches
37
1.30
Conceded Mean
1.65
1.14
Conceded Std
1.47
42.5%
Conceded 2+ rate
43.2%
12.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
27.0%
1.50
Venue Conceded Mean
1.76
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
22.5%
Failed-to-score rate
27.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
5.9%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
50.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
22.5%
Failed-to-score rate
27.0%
20.0%
Clean-sheet rate
5.9%
20.0%
Failed-to-score rate
23.5%
30.0%
Clean-sheet rate
24.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
40
History Matches
37
0.88
Result entropy
0.98
1.88
Goal Difference Std
2.36
12.10
Stability score
1.93
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
40
Eligible Matches
37
16
Lead Matches
10
81.3%
Lead Win Rate
90.0%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.93
9
Trailing Matches
11
11.1%
Non-loss rate
27.3%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
18.2%
Goal timing5 signals 50
40
Halftime Coverage Matches
37
0.70
First Half Goals For Mean
0.68
0.43
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.70
1.13
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.03
0.88
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.95
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
83.98
Rest days
83.98
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
0
3.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
—
16
Normal Rest History Matches
15
1.44
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.47
22
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.77
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.52
Competition & season17 signals 170
4
Matches
4
2.50
PPG
1.50
75.0%
Win rate
25.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
75.0%
0.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
25.0%
Over 2.5 rate
25.0%
25.0%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.41
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.87
4
Current Competition Matches
4
2.50
Current Competition PPG
1.50
2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.50
4
Competition Season Count
3
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.39
Portability PPG Std
0.29
0.92
Portability PPG Range
0.68
56.26
Portability Score
63.43
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
40
Clean History Matches
37
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO27.40
PPG0.24
GF0.12
GA-0.35
PPG1.00
PPG0.37
PPG0.40
PPG-1.00
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate5.7%
Failed-to-score rate-0.05
History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate14.1%
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.12
Goals Std-0.06
Scored 1+ rate4.5%
Scored 2+ rate4.1%
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.39
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Goals Std0.74
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.35
Conceded Std-0.33
Clean-sheet rate5.7%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.01
Conceded 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Conceded Mean-0.26
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.12
History Matches3
Result entropy-0.10
Goal Difference Std-0.47
Stability score10.17
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.40
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.73
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches6
Lead Win Rate-0.09
Lead Points Retention-0.08
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.16
Trailing Win Rate-0.18
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.28
Second Half Goals For Mean0.10
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.07
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean1.50
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.10
Portability PPG Range0.23
Portability Score-7.17
Rest days0.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest History Matches1
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.03
Long Rest History Matches1
Long Rest Points Per Match0.25
Current Team ELO27.40
Current Opponent ELO-27.40
Current ELO Difference54.80
Expected score0.08
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.66
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.26
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Sturm Graz W
W
Salzburg W0–1Sturm Graz W31 Oct · away
Pick: Sturm Graz W 56% · hit W
Sturm Graz W5–0LASK W23 Oct · home
Pick: Sturm Graz W 70% · hit W
Rheindorf Altach W0–2Sturm Graz W18 Oct · away
Pick: Sturm Graz W 59% · hit D
St. Pölten W2–2Sturm Graz W4 Oct · away
Pick: St. Pölten W 57% · missed W
Sturm Graz W3–1Südburgenland W29 Aug · home
Pick: Sturm Graz W 87% · hit First Vienna W
W
First Vienna W4–3Kleinmünchen / BW Linz W31 Oct · home
Pick: First Vienna W 68% · hit D
Südburgenland W1–1First Vienna W25 Oct · away
Pick: First Vienna W 69% · missed D
SK Rapid W1–1First Vienna W17 Oct · away
Pick: First Vienna W 47% · missed D
First Vienna W1–1Austria Wien W29 Aug · home
Pick: Austria Wien W 66% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Sturm Graz W and First Vienna W meet in Frauenliga on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Sturm Graz W win 60.8%, draw 20.7%, First Vienna W win 18.5%. The pick is Sturm Graz W win. Over 2.5 goals: 60.0%. Both teams to score: 57.0%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.