ScoreProb
3. Liga Germany Round 13 2026

Stuttgart II vs Verl

Stuttgart II Home · Elo 1,488
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Verl Away · Elo 1,535
WIRmachenDRUCK Arena, Aspach Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Stuttgart II win
Stuttgart II winPick
45.6%
Draw
20.0%
Verl win
34.4%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · shots, possession, corners, side by side
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes63.6%
No36.4%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.568.3%
Under 2.531.7%

How much we know

Stuttgart II history65 matches
Verl history67 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 6 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 15:30 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Stuttgart II are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Verl are rated 48 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,535 against 1,488. On rating alone Verl would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.

  • Verl score more

    1.55 goals a game over 65 matches for Stuttgart II, against 2.03 over 67 for Verl.

  • Verl concede fewer

    Stuttgart II concede 1.66 a game, Verl 1.45.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    68% of Stuttgart II matches, against 75% for Verl. The model puts this match at 68% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 25 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Stuttgart II
Verl
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1487.6
ELO
1535.3
65
ELO · Matches
67
1487.6
Current Team ELO
1535.3
1535.3
Current Opponent ELO
1487.6
-47.72
Current ELO Difference
47.72
0.43
Expected score
0.57
65
History Matches
67
-0.01
Residual Mean
0.02
48.96
Overperformance
51.83
-0.02
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.13
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
0.60
2.20
Goals for per game
1.80
1.20
Goals against per game
3.20
60.0%
Win rate
20.0%
10
Matches
10
1.30
PPG
1.20
2.70
Goals for per game
1.70
2.10
Goals against per game
2.00
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
2.70
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.70
1.55
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.95
2.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.58
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.67
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.61
2.42
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
3.13
Overall performance9 signals
90
65
Matches
67
1.35
PPG
1.60
38.5%
Win rate
46.3%
20.0%
Draw rate
20.9%
41.5%
Loss rate
32.8%
86.2%
Over 1.5 rate
86.6%
67.7%
Over 2.5 rate
74.6%
40.0%
Over 3.5 rate
46.3%
2.00
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.28
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
34
1.55
PPG
1.21
45.2%
Win rate
32.4%
19.4%
Draw rate
23.5%
35.5%
Loss rate
44.1%
87.1%
Over 1.5 rate
82.4%
71.0%
Over 2.5 rate
67.6%
32.3%
Over 3.5 rate
44.1%
1.77
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.08
31
History Matches
34
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.55
Goals for per game
2.03
81.5%
Scoring rate
80.6%
69.2%
BTTS rate
59.7%
1.61
Goals for per game
1.56
87.1%
Scoring rate
70.6%
77.4%
BTTS rate
58.8%
2.00
Goals for per game
1.50
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
65
History Matches
67
1.55
Goals Mean
2.03
1.28
Goals Std
1.58
81.5%
Scored 1+ rate
80.6%
43.1%
Scored 2+ rate
59.7%
20.0%
Scored 3+ rate
31.3%
1.61
Venue Goals Mean
1.56
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.66
Goals against per game
1.45
81.5%
Conceding rate
76.1%
1.48
Goals against per game
1.74
87.1%
Conceding rate
85.3%
2.50
Goals against per game
4.00
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
65
History Matches
67
1.66
Conceded Mean
1.45
1.35
Conceded Std
1.23
44.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
40.3%
23.1%
Conceded 3+ rate
17.9%
1.48
Venue Conceded Mean
1.74
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
23.9%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
19.4%
12.9%
Clean-sheet rate
14.7%
12.9%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
23.9%
18.5%
Failed-to-score rate
19.4%
12.9%
Clean-sheet rate
14.7%
12.9%
Failed-to-score rate
29.4%
18.5%
Clean-sheet rate
23.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
65
History Matches
67
0.96
Result entropy
0.96
2.00
Goal Difference Std
2.28
4.03
Stability score
4.48
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
63
Eligible Matches
66
16
Lead Matches
29
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
65.5%
0.79
Lead Points Retention
0.71
16
Trailing Matches
16
12.5%
Non-loss rate
18.8%
6.3%
Trailing Win Rate
6.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
63
Halftime Coverage Matches
66
0.68
First Half Goals For Mean
0.95
0.62
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.52
0.87
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.02
1.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.94
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
83.92
Rest days
75.98
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
4
Short Rest History Matches
2
1.75
Short Rest Points Per Match
1.50
29
Normal Rest History Matches
37
1.24
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.49
31
Long Rest History Matches
27
1.45
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.78
Competition & season17 signals
170
2
Matches
2
1.50
PPG
0.00
50.0%
Win rate
0.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
0.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
1.50
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.50
2
Current Competition Matches
2
1.50
Current Competition PPG
0.00
-0.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-2.50
5
Competition Season Count
6
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.47
Portability PPG Std
0.28
1.25
Portability PPG Range
0.78
51.36
Portability Score
63.71
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
65
Clean History Matches
67
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-47.72
PPG-0.24
GF-0.48
GA0.21
PPG1.50
PPG0.34
PPG1.20
PPG0.10
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate-0.01
History Matches-3
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.17
History Matches-2
Goals Mean-0.48
Goals Std-0.31
Scored 1+ rate0.9%
Scored 2+ rate-0.17
Scored 3+ rate-0.11
Venue Goals Mean0.05
Recent 10 Goals Mean1.00
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.40
History Matches-2
Conceded Mean0.21
Conceded Std0.13
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate4.3%
Conceded 3+ rate5.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.25
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.10
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.10
History Matches-2
Result entropy0.00
Goal Difference Std-0.28
Stability score-0.45
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.25
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.72
Eligible Matches-3
Lead Matches-13
Lead Win Rate9.5%
Lead Points Retention0.08
Trailing Matches0
Non-loss rate-0.06
Trailing Win Rate0.0%
Halftime Coverage Matches-3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.27
First Half Goals Against Mean0.10
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.14
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.14
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG1.50
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean2.00
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.19
Portability PPG Range0.47
Portability Score-12.36
Rest days7.94
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches2
Short Rest Points Per Match0.25
Normal Rest History Matches-8
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.25
Long Rest History Matches4
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.33
Current Team ELO-47.72
Current Opponent ELO47.72
Current ELO Difference-95.45
Expected score-0.14
History Matches-2
Residual Mean-0.04
Overperformance-2.88
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.11

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Stuttgart II

D
MSV Duisburg3–3Stuttgart II31 Oct · away
Pick: MSV Duisburg 68% · missed
L
Stuttgart II1–2Alemannia Aachen24 Oct · home
Pick: Alemannia Aachen 58% · hit
W
Fortuna Köln0–1Stuttgart II16 Oct · away
Pick: Fortuna Köln 52% · missed
W
Stuttgart II3–2Hoffenheim II13 Oct · home
Pick: Stuttgart II 40% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Verl

L
Verl1–4SV Wehen31 Oct · home
Pick: Verl 46% · missed
L
FC Viktoria Köln3–1Verl24 Oct · away
Pick: FC Viktoria Köln 57% · hit
L
Hoffenheim II2–1Verl18 Oct · away
Pick: Hoffenheim II 48% · hit
D
Verl2–2SSV Jahn Regensburg14 Oct · home
Pick: SSV Jahn Regensburg 42% · missed
L
Verl1–2Fortuna Köln29 Aug · home
Pick: Fortuna Köln 42% · hit

About this match

Stuttgart II and Verl meet in 3. Liga on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 15:30 UTC. The match is played at WIRmachenDRUCK Arena, Aspach. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Stuttgart II win 45.6%, draw 20.0%, Verl win 34.4%. The pick is Stuttgart II win. Over 2.5 goals: 68.3%. Both teams to score: 63.6%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.