ScoreProb
Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 Spain Group 15 - 10 2026

Subiza vs Txantrea

Subiza Home · Elo 1,513
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Txantrea Away · Elo 1,477
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Subiza win
Subiza winPick
45.1%
Draw
28.0%
Txantrea win
27.0%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes54.1%
No45.9%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.558.6%
Under 2.541.4%

How much we know

Subiza history50 matches
Txantrea history48 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 8 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 17:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (45.1%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Subiza are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Subiza are rated 35 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,513 against 1,477. On rating alone Subiza would be expected to take 55% of the points on offer.

  • Txantrea score more

    1.26 goals a game over 50 matches for Subiza, against 1.56 over 48 for Txantrea.

  • Subiza concede fewer

    Subiza concede 1.18 a game, Txantrea 1.81.

  • Txantrea games more often go over 2.5 goals

    50% of Subiza matches, against 67% for Txantrea. The model puts this match at 59% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 May 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Subiza
Txantrea
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1512.5
ELO
1477.2
50
ELO · Matches
48
1512.5
Current Team ELO
1477.2
1477.2
Current Opponent ELO
1512.5
35.33
Current ELO Difference
-35.33
0.55
Expected score
0.45
50
History Matches
48
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.03
50.72
Overperformance
48.00
0.00
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.17
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
1.20
1.20
Goals for per game
1.80
1.40
Goals against per game
1.80
40.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.40
PPG
1.00
1.20
Goals for per game
1.40
1.10
Goals against per game
1.70
40.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.40
1.47
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.80
1.10
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.70
1.22
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.19
0.96
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.82
1.97
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.42
Overall performance9 signals
90
50
Matches
48
1.36
PPG
1.38
38.0%
Win rate
37.5%
22.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
40.0%
Loss rate
37.5%
66.0%
Over 1.5 rate
91.7%
50.0%
Over 2.5 rate
66.7%
24.0%
Over 3.5 rate
43.8%
1.83
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
Venue performance10 signals
100
24
Matches
25
1.75
PPG
0.96
50.0%
Win rate
24.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
24.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
52.0%
58.3%
Over 1.5 rate
92.0%
41.7%
Over 2.5 rate
72.0%
29.2%
Over 3.5 rate
56.0%
1.54
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.89
24
History Matches
25
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.26
Goals for per game
1.56
64.0%
Scoring rate
83.3%
42.0%
BTTS rate
68.8%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.40
66.7%
Scoring rate
76.0%
37.5%
BTTS rate
72.0%
50
History Matches
48
1.26
Goals Mean
1.56
1.29
Goals Std
1.12
64.0%
Scored 1+ rate
83.3%
36.0%
Scored 2+ rate
45.8%
16.0%
Scored 3+ rate
20.8%
1.50
Venue Goals Mean
1.40
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.18
Goals against per game
1.81
68.0%
Conceding rate
85.4%
0.79
Goals against per game
2.36
58.3%
Conceding rate
96.0%
50
History Matches
48
1.18
Conceded Mean
1.81
1.11
Conceded Std
1.29
34.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
60.4%
10.0%
Conceded 3+ rate
18.8%
0.79
Venue Conceded Mean
2.36
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.6%
36.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
4.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
24.0%
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.6%
36.0%
Failed-to-score rate
16.7%
41.7%
Clean-sheet rate
4.0%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
24.0%
32.0%
Clean-sheet rate
14.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
50
History Matches
48
0.97
Result entropy
0.99
1.83
Goal Difference Std
1.89
2.85
Stability score
1.49
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
49
Eligible Matches
46
13
Lead Matches
14
92.3%
Lead Win Rate
57.1%
0.95
Lead Points Retention
0.69
14
Trailing Matches
16
35.7%
Non-loss rate
25.0%
21.4%
Trailing Win Rate
6.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
49
Halftime Coverage Matches
46
0.45
First Half Goals For Mean
0.72
0.63
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.85
0.84
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.91
0.57
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.98
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
168.0
Rest days
183.1
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
24
Normal Rest History Matches
22
1.42
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.41
24
Long Rest History Matches
24
1.42
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.29
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
2
Competition Season Count
2
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
2
0.30
Portability PPG Std
0.26
0.61
Portability PPG Range
0.52
62.13
Portability Score
65.74
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
50
Clean History Matches
48
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
ELO35.33
PPG-0.02
GF-0.30
GA-0.63
PPG0.79
PPG0.20
PPG0.40
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate17.4%
Failed-to-score rate19.3%
History Matches-1
Clean-sheet rate37.7%
Failed-to-score rate9.3%
History Matches2
Goals Mean-0.30
Goals Std0.18
Scored 1+ rate-0.19
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate-0.05
Venue Goals Mean0.10
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std0.67
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.63
Conceded Std-0.18
Clean-sheet rate17.4%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.26
Conceded 3+ rate-0.09
Venue Conceded Mean-1.57
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.60
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.03
History Matches2
Result entropy-0.01
Goal Difference Std-0.06
Stability score1.36
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.14
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std0.55
Eligible Matches3
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate35.2%
Lead Points Retention0.26
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate10.7%
Trailing Win Rate15.2%
Halftime Coverage Matches3
First Half Goals For Mean-0.27
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.22
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.08
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.41
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.04
Portability PPG Range0.09
Portability Score-3.61
Rest days-15.02
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-3.00
Normal Rest History Matches2
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.01
Long Rest History Matches0
Long Rest Points Per Match0.13
Current Team ELO35.33
Current Opponent ELO-35.33
Current ELO Difference70.66
Expected score0.10
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.04
Overperformance2.72
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Subiza

L
Izarra2–0Subiza31 Oct · away
Pick: Izarra 50% · hit
W
Subiza3–1Cortes25 Oct · home
Pick: Subiza 36% · hit
L
Huesca II4–1Subiza30 Aug · away
Pick: Huesca II 53% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Txantrea

W
Txantrea2–1Beti Onak31 Oct · home
Pick: Beti Onak 36% · missed
W
Txantrea5–1Pamplona24 Oct · home
Pick: Pamplona 53% · missed
D
Izarra0–0Txantrea18 Oct · away
Pick: Izarra 57% · missed
D
Txantrea0–0Cortes8 Oct · home
Pick: Cortes 39% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Subiza and Txantrea meet in Tercera División RFEF - Group 15 on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 17:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Subiza win 45.1%, draw 28.0%, Txantrea win 27.0%. The pick is Subiza win. Over 2.5 goals: 58.6%. Both teams to score: 54.1%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.