Süderelbe vs ETSV Hamburg
Match result probability Model pick: Süderelbe win
Süderelbe winPick
39.6%
Draw
24.2%
ETSV Hamburg win
36.1%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes63.2%
No36.8%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.574.7%
Under 2.525.3%
How much we know
Süderelbe history48 matches
ETSV Hamburg history54 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Süderelbe
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 17:30 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre13 Nov · 18:30 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 33–39% band (39.6%). Picks in that band won 40.1% of the time, and the model said 37.7% on average, over 2,748 matches.
Why Süderelbe are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
ETSV Hamburg are rated 114 Elo points higher
Elo 1,646 against 1,532. On rating alone ETSV Hamburg would be expected to take 66% of the points on offer.
-
ETSV Hamburg score more
2.25 goals a game over 48 matches for Süderelbe, against 3.11 over 54 for ETSV Hamburg.
-
ETSV Hamburg concede fewer
Süderelbe concede 1.79 a game, ETSV Hamburg 1.13.
-
Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games
71% of Süderelbe matches, against 74% for ETSV Hamburg. The model puts this match at 75% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 23 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
ETSV Hamburg@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1532.1
ELO
1646.4
48
ELO · Matches
54
1532.1
Current Team ELO
1646.4
1646.4
Current Opponent ELO
1532.1
-114.3
Current ELO Difference
114.3
0.34
Expected score
0.66
48
History Matches
54
0.03
Residual Mean
0.14
52.20
Overperformance
59.93
0.09
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.03
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
2.00
PPG
2.00
2.60
Goals for per game
3.00
1.20
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.80
PPG
2.00
2.50
Goals for per game
2.70
1.60
Goals against per game
1.40
50.0%
Win rate
60.0%
2.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.70
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.49
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.40
1.11
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.92
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.51
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.79
Overall performance9 signals 90
48
Matches
54
1.60
PPG
2.15
45.8%
Win rate
66.7%
22.9%
Draw rate
14.8%
31.3%
Loss rate
18.5%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
90.7%
70.8%
Over 2.5 rate
74.1%
58.3%
Over 3.5 rate
64.8%
2.01
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.84
Venue performance10 signals 100
24
Matches
26
1.71
PPG
2.08
45.8%
Win rate
61.5%
33.3%
Draw rate
23.1%
20.8%
Loss rate
15.4%
87.5%
Over 1.5 rate
84.6%
70.8%
Over 2.5 rate
65.4%
58.3%
Over 3.5 rate
57.7%
1.59
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.24
24
History Matches
26
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
2.25
Goals for per game
3.11
85.4%
Scoring rate
98.1%
64.6%
BTTS rate
59.3%
2.38
Goals for per game
2.69
87.5%
Scoring rate
96.2%
70.8%
BTTS rate
69.2%
2.25
Goals for per game
2.25
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
75.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
48
History Matches
54
2.25
Goals Mean
3.11
1.63
Goals Std
2.20
85.4%
Scored 1+ rate
98.1%
62.5%
Scored 2+ rate
72.2%
43.8%
Scored 3+ rate
48.1%
2.38
Venue Goals Mean
2.69
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
1.79
Goals against per game
1.13
75.0%
Conceding rate
61.1%
1.63
Goals against per game
1.15
79.2%
Conceding rate
73.1%
1.00
Goals against per game
1.50
75.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
48
History Matches
54
1.79
Conceded Mean
1.13
1.40
Conceded Std
1.23
58.3%
Conceded 2+ rate
29.6%
31.3%
Conceded 3+ rate
14.8%
1.63
Venue Conceded Mean
1.15
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
38.9%
14.6%
Failed-to-score rate
1.9%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
3.8%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
38.9%
14.6%
Failed-to-score rate
1.9%
20.8%
Clean-sheet rate
26.9%
12.5%
Failed-to-score rate
3.8%
25.0%
Clean-sheet rate
38.9%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
48
History Matches
54
0.96
Result entropy
0.79
2.01
Goal Difference Std
2.84
3.63
Stability score
21.22
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
48
Eligible Matches
53
17
Lead Matches
34
76.5%
Lead Win Rate
88.2%
0.82
Lead Points Retention
0.92
12
Trailing Matches
10
33.3%
Non-loss rate
20.0%
8.3%
Trailing Win Rate
10.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
48
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
1.02
First Half Goals For Mean
1.47
0.81
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.45
1.23
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.66
0.98
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.62
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
82.25
Rest days
84.04
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
2
Short Rest History Matches
5
0.50
Short Rest Points Per Match
2.20
19
Normal Rest History Matches
30
1.68
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.20
26
Long Rest History Matches
18
1.65
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.17
Competition & season17 signals 170
4
Matches
4
1.75
PPG
1.75
50.0%
Win rate
50.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
25.0%
Loss rate
25.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
75.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.48
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.75
Current Competition PPG
1.75
1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.75
4
Competition Season Count
5
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.13
Portability PPG Std
0.30
0.31
Portability PPG Range
0.69
79.26
Portability Score
62.21
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
48
Clean History Matches
54
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-114.3
PPG-0.54
GF-0.86
GA0.66
PPG0.00
PPG-0.37
PPG0.00
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-6
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Failed-to-score rate12.7%
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate-0.06
Failed-to-score rate8.7%
History Matches-6
Goals Mean-0.86
Goals Std-0.57
Scored 1+ rate-0.13
Scored 2+ rate-0.10
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean-0.32
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.28
History Matches-6
Conceded Mean0.66
Conceded Std0.17
Clean-sheet rate-0.14
Conceded 2+ rate28.7%
Conceded 3+ rate16.4%
Venue Conceded Mean0.47
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.20
History Matches-6
Result entropy0.18
Goal Difference Std-0.83
Stability score-17.58
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.07
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.28
Eligible Matches-5
Lead Matches-17
Lead Win Rate-0.12
Lead Points Retention-0.10
Trailing Matches2
Non-loss rate13.3%
Trailing Win Rate-0.02
Halftime Coverage Matches-5
First Half Goals For Mean-0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean0.36
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.43
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.36
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.50
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.17
Portability PPG Range-0.38
Portability Score17.05
Rest days-1.79
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-3
Short Rest Points Per Match-1.70
Normal Rest History Matches-11
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.52
Long Rest History Matches8
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.51
Current Team ELO-114.3
Current Opponent ELO114.3
Current ELO Difference-228.6
Expected score-0.32
History Matches-6
Residual Mean-0.10
Overperformance-7.73
Recent 10 Residual Mean0.06
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Süderelbe
W
Concordia2–6Süderelbe6 Nov · away
Pick: Süderelbe 74% · hit L
Süderelbe3–4Teutonia Ottensen30 Oct · home
Pick: Süderelbe 57% · missed W
Tus Dassendorf1–2Süderelbe24 Oct · away
Pick: Tus Dassendorf 70% · missed L
Süderelbe1–2Sasel16 Oct · home
Pick: Süderelbe 54% · missed L
Pinneberg2–1Süderelbe4 Oct · away
Pick: Süderelbe 44% · missed ETSV Hamburg
W
Victoria Hamburg2–3ETSV Hamburg30 Oct · away
Pick: ETSV Hamburg 38% · hit L
ETSV Hamburg4–5Vorwärts-Wacker 0423 Oct · home
Pick: ETSV Hamburg 82% · missed D
HT162–2ETSV Hamburg17 Oct · away
Pick: ETSV Hamburg 57% · missed L
Norderstedt II2–1ETSV Hamburg13 Oct · away
Pick: ETSV Hamburg 82% · missed W
Paloma1–4ETSV Hamburg4 Oct · away
Pick: Paloma 46% · missed About this match
Süderelbe and ETSV Hamburg meet in Oberliga - Hamburg on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 18:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Süderelbe win 39.6%, draw 24.2%, ETSV Hamburg win 36.1%. The pick is Süderelbe win. Over 2.5 goals: 74.7%. Both teams to score: 63.2%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.