Vorwärts-Wacker 04 vs Harksheide
Match result probability Model pick: Vorwärts-Wacker 04 win
Vorwärts-Wacker 04 winPick
53.3%
Draw
17.7%
Harksheide win
29.0%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes72.1%
No27.9%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.581.0%
Under 2.519.0%
How much we know
Vorwärts-Wacker 04 history53 matches
Harksheide history51 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Vorwärts-Wacker 04
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours Yes
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 17:00 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre13 Nov · 18:00 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.3%). Picks in that band won 55.7% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,845 matches.
Why Vorwärts-Wacker 04 are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Vorwärts-Wacker 04 are rated 46 Elo points higher
Elo 1,479 against 1,433. On rating alone Vorwärts-Wacker 04 would be expected to take 57% of the points on offer.
-
Vorwärts-Wacker 04 score more
2.40 goals a game over 53 matches for Vorwärts-Wacker 04, against 1.71 over 51 for Harksheide.
-
Defences are close
Vorwärts-Wacker 04 concede 2.66 a game, Harksheide 2.80.
-
Vorwärts-Wacker 04 games more often go over 2.5 goals
91% of Vorwärts-Wacker 04 matches, against 80% for Harksheide. The model puts this match at 81% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 22 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Harksheide@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1479.0
ELO
1433.1
53
ELO · Matches
51
1479.0
Current Team ELO
1433.1
1433.1
Current Opponent ELO
1479.0
45.89
Current ELO Difference
-45.89
0.57
Expected score
0.43
53
History Matches
51
-0.02
Residual Mean
-0.07
48.62
Overperformance
44.96
-0.13
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.01
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
0.20
2.00
Goals for per game
1.60
2.80
Goals against per game
2.80
40.0%
Win rate
0.0%
10
Matches
10
0.80
PPG
1.30
1.60
Goals for per game
1.90
2.90
Goals against per game
2.00
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.60
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.90
1.02
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.14
2.90
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.00
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.61
0.86
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.86
1.90
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.02
Overall performance9 signals 90
53
Matches
51
1.40
PPG
1.02
41.5%
Win rate
29.4%
15.1%
Draw rate
13.7%
43.4%
Loss rate
56.9%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
94.1%
90.6%
Over 2.5 rate
80.4%
67.9%
Over 3.5 rate
60.8%
2.80
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.01
Venue performance10 signals 100
27
Matches
27
1.59
PPG
0.74
48.1%
Win rate
22.2%
14.8%
Draw rate
7.4%
37.0%
Loss rate
70.4%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
92.6%
88.9%
Over 2.5 rate
88.9%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
70.4%
2.42
Goal difference · Standard deviation
3.45
27
History Matches
27
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
2.40
Goals for per game
1.71
88.7%
Scoring rate
84.3%
81.1%
BTTS rate
76.5%
2.33
Goals for per game
1.56
88.9%
Scoring rate
77.8%
77.8%
BTTS rate
70.4%
1.50
Goals for per game
1.00
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
100.0%
53
History Matches
51
2.40
Goals Mean
1.71
1.86
Goals Std
1.49
88.7%
Scored 1+ rate
84.3%
66.0%
Scored 2+ rate
41.2%
37.7%
Scored 3+ rate
21.6%
2.33
Venue Goals Mean
1.56
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
2.66
Goals against per game
2.80
92.5%
Conceding rate
90.2%
2.44
Goals against per game
3.44
88.9%
Conceding rate
88.9%
2.75
Goals against per game
2.25
100.0%
Conceding rate
100.0%
53
History Matches
51
2.66
Conceded Mean
2.80
1.79
Conceded Std
2.28
73.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
64.7%
41.5%
Conceded 3+ rate
45.1%
2.44
Venue Conceded Mean
3.44
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
7.5%
Clean-sheet rate
9.8%
11.3%
Failed-to-score rate
15.7%
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
0.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
7.5%
Clean-sheet rate
9.8%
11.3%
Failed-to-score rate
15.7%
11.1%
Clean-sheet rate
11.1%
11.1%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
7.5%
Clean-sheet rate
9.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
53
History Matches
51
0.92
Result entropy
0.87
2.80
Goal Difference Std
3.01
7.82
Stability score
13.21
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
53
Eligible Matches
51
18
Lead Matches
7
77.8%
Lead Win Rate
85.7%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.86
23
Trailing Matches
26
17.4%
Non-loss rate
7.7%
4.3%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
53
Halftime Coverage Matches
51
1.09
First Half Goals For Mean
0.65
1.43
First Half Goals Against Mean
1.39
1.30
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.06
1.23
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.41
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
83.31
Rest days
84.02
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
5
Short Rest History Matches
1
0.20
Short Rest Points Per Match
0.00
19
Normal Rest History Matches
28
1.47
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.04
28
Long Rest History Matches
21
1.50
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.95
Competition & season17 signals 170
4
Matches
4
1.00
PPG
0.25
25.0%
Win rate
0.0%
25.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
75.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
75.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
0.83
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.00
Current Competition PPG
0.25
-1.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
-1.25
4
Competition Season Count
4
3
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.37
Portability PPG Std
0.42
0.86
Portability PPG Range
1.02
57.24
Portability Score
54.42
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
53
Clean History Matches
51
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO45.89
PPG0.38
GF0.69
GA-0.14
PPG0.75
PPG0.85
PPG1.20
PPG-0.50
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches2
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Failed-to-score rate-0.04
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate0.0%
Failed-to-score rate-0.11
History Matches2
Goals Mean0.69
Goals Std0.37
Scored 1+ rate4.4%
Scored 2+ rate24.9%
Scored 3+ rate16.2%
Venue Goals Mean0.78
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.30
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.12
History Matches2
Conceded Mean-0.14
Conceded Std-0.49
Clean-sheet rate-0.02
Conceded 2+ rate8.9%
Conceded 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Conceded Mean-1.00
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.90
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.31
History Matches2
Result entropy0.05
Goal Difference Std-0.21
Stability score-5.38
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.01
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.12
Eligible Matches2
Lead Matches11
Lead Win Rate-0.08
Lead Points Retention-0.02
Trailing Matches-3
Non-loss rate9.7%
Trailing Win Rate4.3%
Halftime Coverage Matches2
First Half Goals For Mean0.45
First Half Goals Against Mean0.04
Second Half Goals For Mean0.24
Second Half Goals Against Mean-0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG0.75
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean0.00
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std-0.05
Portability PPG Range-0.17
Portability Score2.82
Rest days-0.71
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches4
Short Rest Points Per Match0.20
Normal Rest History Matches-9
Normal Rest Points Per Match0.44
Long Rest History Matches7
Long Rest Points Per Match0.55
Current Team ELO45.89
Current Opponent ELO-45.89
Current ELO Difference91.78
Expected score0.13
History Matches2
Residual Mean0.05
Overperformance3.65
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.12
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Vorwärts-Wacker 04
D
Vorwärts-Wacker 044–4Buchholz30 Oct · home
Pick: Vorwärts-Wacker 04 42% · missed W
ETSV Hamburg4–5Vorwärts-Wacker 0423 Oct · away
Pick: ETSV Hamburg 82% · missed W
Vorwärts-Wacker 045–2Concordia16 Oct · home
Pick: Vorwärts-Wacker 04 66% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
Harksheide
L
Harksheide0–3HT166 Nov · home
Pick: HT16 50% · hit L
Niendorfer TSV2–1Harksheide1 Nov · away
Pick: Niendorfer TSV 65% · hit L
Harksheide0–2Paloma23 Oct · home
Pick: Paloma 65% · hit D
Teutonia Ottensen0–0Harksheide30 Aug · away
Pick: Teutonia Ottensen 48% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Vorwärts-Wacker 04 and Harksheide meet in Oberliga - Hamburg on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 18:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: Vorwärts-Wacker 04 win 53.3%, draw 17.7%, Harksheide win 29.0%. The pick is Vorwärts-Wacker 04 win. Over 2.5 goals: 81.0%. Both teams to score: 72.1%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.