ScoreProb
Regionalliga - Nord Germany North - 18 2026

SV Drochtersen/Assel vs VfB Oldenburg

SV Drochtersen/Assel Home · Elo 1,629
Fri 13 Nov
UTC
Not started
VfB Oldenburg Away · Elo 1,636
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: VfB Oldenburg win
SV Drochtersen/Assel win
34.2%
Draw
24.2%
VfB Oldenburg winPick
41.6%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes65.5%
No34.5%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.572.5%
Under 2.527.5%

How much we know

SV Drochtersen/Assel history60 matches
VfB Oldenburg history59 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 9 h ahead
    7 Nov · 08:56 UTC
  2. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    13 Nov · 18:30 UTC
  3. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  4. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,663 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,748
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,387
50–59% Won 55.7% · said 54.4% · n 3,845
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,914
70–79% Won 76.0% · said 73.9% · n 601
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 168
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (41.6%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,387 matches.

Why VfB Oldenburg are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,629 against 1,636. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Scoring rates are level

    2.37 goals a game over 60 matches for SV Drochtersen/Assel, against 2.39 over 59 for VfB Oldenburg.

  • Defences are close

    SV Drochtersen/Assel concede 1.37 a game, VfB Oldenburg 1.32.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    72% of SV Drochtersen/Assel matches, against 75% for VfB Oldenburg. The model puts this match at 73% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 16 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
SV Drochtersen/Assel
VfB Oldenburg@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1629.2
ELO
1635.8
60
ELO · Matches
59
1629.2
Current Team ELO
1635.8
1635.8
Current Opponent ELO
1629.2
-6.57
Current ELO Difference
6.57
0.49
Expected score
0.51
60
History Matches
59
0.11
Residual Mean
0.11
58.11
Overperformance
58.08
-0.01
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.17
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
1.80
PPG
2.00
2.60
Goals for per game
2.40
1.40
Goals against per game
1.60
60.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.70
PPG
2.30
2.50
Goals for per game
2.70
1.40
Goals against per game
1.10
50.0%
Win rate
70.0%
2.50
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.70
1.50
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.79
1.40
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.10
0.92
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.37
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.73
2.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.65
Overall performance9 signals
90
60
Matches
59
1.97
PPG
1.95
60.0%
Win rate
57.6%
16.7%
Draw rate
22.0%
23.3%
Loss rate
20.3%
86.7%
Over 1.5 rate
89.8%
71.7%
Over 2.5 rate
74.6%
60.0%
Over 3.5 rate
55.9%
2.03
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.11
Venue performance10 signals
100
31
Matches
31
2.35
PPG
2.06
74.2%
Win rate
61.3%
12.9%
Draw rate
22.6%
12.9%
Loss rate
16.1%
90.3%
Over 1.5 rate
93.5%
80.6%
Over 2.5 rate
74.2%
64.5%
Over 3.5 rate
51.6%
1.96
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.17
31
History Matches
31
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
2.37
Goals for per game
2.39
86.7%
Scoring rate
91.5%
66.7%
BTTS rate
67.8%
2.71
Goals for per game
2.32
93.5%
Scoring rate
100.0%
74.2%
BTTS rate
67.7%
2.00
Goals for per game
2.75
100.0%
Scoring rate
100.0%
100.0%
BTTS rate
75.0%
60
History Matches
59
2.37
Goals Mean
2.39
1.65
Goals Std
1.54
86.7%
Scored 1+ rate
91.5%
66.7%
Scored 2+ rate
66.1%
43.3%
Scored 3+ rate
47.5%
2.71
Venue Goals Mean
2.32
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
1.37
Goals against per game
1.32
76.7%
Conceding rate
71.2%
1.10
Goals against per game
1.26
77.4%
Conceding rate
67.7%
1.75
Goals against per game
0.75
100.0%
Conceding rate
75.0%
60
History Matches
59
1.37
Conceded Mean
1.32
1.05
Conceded Std
1.24
41.7%
Conceded 2+ rate
35.6%
16.7%
Conceded 3+ rate
15.3%
1.10
Venue Conceded Mean
1.26
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
23.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.8%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
8.5%
22.6%
Clean-sheet rate
32.3%
6.5%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
25.0%
0.0%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
23.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.8%
13.3%
Failed-to-score rate
8.5%
22.6%
Clean-sheet rate
32.3%
6.5%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
23.3%
Clean-sheet rate
28.8%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
60
History Matches
59
0.86
Result entropy
0.89
2.03
Goal Difference Std
2.11
14.01
Stability score
11.27
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
57
Eligible Matches
58
23
Lead Matches
20
82.6%
Lead Win Rate
85.0%
0.86
Lead Points Retention
0.90
14
Trailing Matches
16
42.9%
Non-loss rate
50.0%
35.7%
Trailing Win Rate
25.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
57
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
0.93
First Half Goals For Mean
0.91
0.60
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.69
1.33
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.45
0.81
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.66
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
89.27
Rest days
90.10
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
1
Short Rest History Matches
1
1.00
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
33
Normal Rest History Matches
35
1.82
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.86
25
Long Rest History Matches
22
2.16
Long Rest Points Per Match
2.14
Competition & season17 signals
170
4
Matches
4
1.50
PPG
2.50
50.0%
Win rate
75.0%
0.0%
Draw rate
25.0%
50.0%
Loss rate
0.0%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
75.0%
50.0%
Over 3.5 rate
50.0%
1.92
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.22
4
Current Competition Matches
4
1.50
Current Competition PPG
2.50
0.25
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
2.00
5
Competition Season Count
5
5
Eligible Competition Season Count
5
0.55
Portability PPG Std
0.42
1.50
Portability PPG Range
1.17
47.52
Portability Score
54.56
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
60
Clean History Matches
59
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
ELO-6.57
PPG0.02
GF-0.02
GA0.04
PPG-1.00
PPG0.29
PPG-0.20
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches1
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Failed-to-score rate4.9%
History Matches0
Clean-sheet rate-0.10
Failed-to-score rate6.5%
History Matches1
Goals Mean-0.02
Goals Std0.11
Scored 1+ rate-0.05
Scored 2+ rate0.6%
Scored 3+ rate-0.04
Venue Goals Mean0.39
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.29
History Matches1
Conceded Mean0.04
Conceded Std-0.19
Clean-sheet rate-0.05
Conceded 2+ rate6.1%
Conceded 3+ rate1.4%
Venue Conceded Mean-0.16
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.30
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.46
History Matches1
Result entropy-0.03
Goal Difference Std-0.08
Stability score2.74
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.21
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.44
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches3
Lead Win Rate-0.02
Lead Points Retention-0.04
Trailing Matches-2
Non-loss rate-0.07
Trailing Win Rate10.7%
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.02
First Half Goals Against Mean-0.09
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.11
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.15
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-1.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-1.75
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count0
Portability PPG Std0.14
Portability PPG Range0.33
Portability Score-7.04
Rest days-0.83
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Short Rest Points Per Match-2.00
Normal Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.04
Long Rest History Matches3
Long Rest Points Per Match0.02
Current Team ELO-6.57
Current Opponent ELO6.57
Current ELO Difference-13.13
Expected score-0.02
History Matches1
Residual Mean0.00
Overperformance0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.18

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

SV Drochtersen/Assel

D
HSC Hannover1–1SV Drochtersen/Assel1 Nov · away
Pick: HSC Hannover 41% · missed
W
SV Drochtersen/Assel5–1Todesfelde24 Oct · home
Pick: SV Drochtersen/Assel 49% · hit
L
Weiche Flensburg3–0SV Drochtersen/Assel16 Oct · away
Pick: Weiche Flensburg 52% · hit
W
VfB Lübeck2–3SV Drochtersen/Assel29 Aug · away
Pick: SV Drochtersen/Assel 42% · hit
L
SV Drochtersen/Assel0–1Werder Bremen II26 Aug · home
Pick: SV Drochtersen/Assel 69% · missed

VfB Oldenburg

D
Atlas Delmenhorst1–1VfB Oldenburg30 Oct · away
Pick: VfB Oldenburg 44% · missed
W
VfB Oldenburg2–1HSC Hannover24 Oct · home
Pick: VfB Oldenburg 70% · hit
W
Hamburger SV II1–2VfB Oldenburg18 Oct · away
Pick: VfB Oldenburg 67% · hit
W
VfB Oldenburg7–3Eimsbütteler TV29 Aug · home
Pick: VfB Oldenburg 61% · hit
W
Todesfelde1–4VfB Oldenburg26 Aug · away
Pick: Todesfelde 41% · missed

About this match

SV Drochtersen/Assel and VfB Oldenburg meet in Regionalliga - Nord on Friday 13 November 2026, kickoff 18:30 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 7 Nov, 08:56 UTC: SV Drochtersen/Assel win 34.2%, draw 24.2%, VfB Oldenburg win 41.6%. The pick is VfB Oldenburg win. Over 2.5 goals: 72.5%. Both teams to score: 65.5%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.