ScoreProb
4. liga - Divizie C Czechia Group C - 14 2026

Svitavy vs Turnov

Svitavy Home · Elo 1,440
Sun 8 Nov
UTC
Not started
Turnov Away · Elo 1,530
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Turnov win
Svitavy win
25.3%
Draw
21.4%
Turnov winPick
53.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes67.2%
No32.8%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.574.9%
Under 2.525.1%

How much we know

Svitavy history37 matches
Turnov history57 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 4 h ahead
    2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
  2. Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    8 Nov · 13:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (53.3%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.

Why Turnov are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • Turnov are rated 91 Elo points higher

    Elo 1,530 against 1,440. On rating alone Turnov would be expected to take 63% of the points on offer.

  • Turnov score more

    1.41 goals a game over 37 matches for Svitavy, against 2.04 over 57 for Turnov.

  • Turnov concede fewer

    Svitavy concede 2.54 a game, Turnov 1.72.

  • Both teams play a similar number of high-scoring games

    78% of Svitavy matches, against 72% for Turnov. The model puts this match at 75% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 24 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Svitavy
Turnov
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1439.8
ELO
1530.3
37
ELO · Matches
57
1439.8
Current Team ELO
1530.3
1530.3
Current Opponent ELO
1439.8
-90.55
Current ELO Difference
90.55
0.37
Expected score
0.63
37
History Matches
57
-0.08
Residual Mean
0.02
45.02
Overperformance
51.76
-0.12
Recent 10 Residual Mean
-0.06
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
1.40
1.40
Goals for per game
2.20
3.20
Goals against per game
1.80
20.0%
Win rate
40.0%
10
Matches
10
1.00
PPG
1.20
1.90
Goals for per game
2.40
2.70
Goals against per game
2.30
30.0%
Win rate
30.0%
1.90
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.40
1.37
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.36
2.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
2.30
1.42
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.49
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
2.09
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.17
Overall performance9 signals
90
37
Matches
57
1.00
PPG
1.58
27.0%
Win rate
45.6%
18.9%
Draw rate
21.1%
54.1%
Loss rate
33.3%
91.9%
Over 1.5 rate
91.2%
78.4%
Over 2.5 rate
71.9%
51.4%
Over 3.5 rate
49.1%
2.51
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.33
Venue performance10 signals
100
19
Matches
29
1.00
PPG
1.34
26.3%
Win rate
37.9%
21.1%
Draw rate
20.7%
52.6%
Loss rate
41.4%
89.5%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
68.4%
Over 2.5 rate
75.9%
52.6%
Over 3.5 rate
41.4%
2.43
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.16
19
History Matches
29
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
1.41
Goals for per game
2.04
64.9%
Scoring rate
86.0%
59.5%
BTTS rate
61.4%
1.32
Goals for per game
1.72
63.2%
Scoring rate
86.2%
63.2%
BTTS rate
72.4%
1.33
Goals for per game
2.67
66.7%
Scoring rate
100.0%
66.7%
BTTS rate
66.7%
37
History Matches
57
1.41
Goals Mean
2.04
1.38
Goals Std
1.39
64.9%
Scored 1+ rate
86.0%
37.8%
Scored 2+ rate
57.9%
27.0%
Scored 3+ rate
42.1%
1.32
Venue Goals Mean
1.72
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
2.54
Goals against per game
1.72
91.9%
Conceding rate
75.4%
2.63
Goals against per game
1.93
94.7%
Conceding rate
86.2%
3.33
Goals against per game
2.33
100.0%
Conceding rate
66.7%
37
History Matches
57
2.54
Conceded Mean
1.72
1.72
Conceded Std
1.58
64.9%
Conceded 2+ rate
47.4%
48.6%
Conceded 3+ rate
28.1%
2.63
Venue Conceded Mean
1.93
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
8.1%
Clean-sheet rate
24.6%
35.1%
Failed-to-score rate
14.0%
5.3%
Clean-sheet rate
13.8%
36.8%
Failed-to-score rate
13.8%
0.0%
Clean-sheet rate
33.3%
33.3%
Failed-to-score rate
0.0%
8.1%
Clean-sheet rate
24.6%
35.1%
Failed-to-score rate
14.0%
5.3%
Clean-sheet rate
13.8%
36.8%
Failed-to-score rate
13.8%
8.1%
Clean-sheet rate
24.6%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
37
History Matches
57
0.91
Result entropy
0.96
2.51
Goal Difference Std
2.33
8.87
Stability score
4.22
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
37
Eligible Matches
53
11
Lead Matches
20
81.8%
Lead Win Rate
85.0%
0.85
Lead Points Retention
0.90
18
Trailing Matches
11
16.7%
Non-loss rate
0.0%
5.6%
Trailing Win Rate
0.0%
Goal timing5 signals
50
37
Halftime Coverage Matches
53
0.81
First Half Goals For Mean
1.04
1.27
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.79
0.59
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.98
1.27
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.85
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
76.92
Rest days
78.19
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
21
Normal Rest History Matches
27
1.00
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.30
15
Long Rest History Matches
29
1.07
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.79
Competition & season17 signals
170
3
Matches
3
1.00
PPG
1.33
33.3%
Win rate
33.3%
0.0%
Draw rate
33.3%
66.7%
Loss rate
33.3%
100.0%
Over 1.5 rate
100.0%
100.0%
Over 2.5 rate
100.0%
66.7%
Over 3.5 rate
100.0%
2.94
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.87
3
Current Competition Matches
3
1.00
Current Competition PPG
1.33
-2.00
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean
0.33
6
Competition Season Count
6
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
4
0.02
Portability PPG Std
0.43
0.03
Portability PPG Range
1.13
96.77
Portability Score
53.89
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
37
Clean History Matches
57
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-90.55
PPG-0.58
GF-0.63
GA0.82
PPG-0.33
PPG-0.34
PPG-0.80
PPG-0.20
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-20
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Failed-to-score rate21.1%
History Matches-10
Clean-sheet rate-0.09
Failed-to-score rate23.0%
History Matches-20
Goals Mean-0.63
Goals Std0.00
Scored 1+ rate-0.21
Scored 2+ rate-0.20
Scored 3+ rate-0.15
Venue Goals Mean-0.41
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.50
Recent 10 Goals Std0.02
History Matches-20
Conceded Mean0.82
Conceded Std0.14
Clean-sheet rate-0.16
Conceded 2+ rate17.5%
Conceded 3+ rate20.6%
Venue Conceded Mean0.70
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.40
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.07
History Matches-20
Result entropy-0.05
Goal Difference Std0.18
Stability score4.66
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.08
Eligible Matches-16
Lead Matches-9
Lead Win Rate-0.03
Lead Points Retention-0.05
Trailing Matches7
Non-loss rate16.7%
Trailing Win Rate5.6%
Halftime Coverage Matches-16
First Half Goals For Mean-0.23
First Half Goals Against Mean0.48
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.39
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.42
Current Competition Matches0
Current Competition PPG-0.33
Current Competition Goal Difference Mean-2.33
Competition Season Count0
Eligible Competition Season Count-2
Portability PPG Std-0.41
Portability PPG Range-1.10
Portability Score42.89
Rest days-1.27
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches-6
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.30
Long Rest History Matches-14
Long Rest Points Per Match-0.73
Current Team ELO-90.55
Current Opponent ELO90.55
Current ELO Difference-181.1
Expected score-0.25
History Matches-20
Residual Mean-0.10
Overperformance-6.74
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.06

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Svitavy

L
Spartak Police n/Metují5–0Svitavy1 Nov · away
Pick: Spartak Police n/Metují 58% · hit
L
Svitavy1–4Kosmonosy25 Oct · home
Pick: Kosmonosy 59% · hit
L
Chlumec nad Cidlinou4–1Svitavy18 Oct · away
Pick: Chlumec nad Cidlinou 63% · hit
L
Dvůr Králové1–0Svitavy30 Aug · away
Pick: Dvůr Králové 57% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

Turnov

W
Turnov4–0Dvůr Králové1 Nov · home
Pick: Turnov 72% · hit
W
Hlinsko1–3Turnov24 Oct · away
Pick: Hlinsko 49% · missed
W
Turnov3–0Slavia Hradec Králové18 Oct · home
Pick: Turnov 59% · hit
W
Turnov4–1Chrudim II4 Oct · home
Pick: Turnov 69% · hit
L
Turnov0–2Vysoké Mýto30 Aug · home
Pick: Vysoké Mýto 48% · hit

About this match

Svitavy and Turnov meet in 4. liga - Divizie C on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 13:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Svitavy win 25.3%, draw 21.4%, Turnov win 53.3%. The pick is Turnov win. Over 2.5 goals: 74.9%. Both teams to score: 67.2%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.