Tadamon Sour vs Al Ansar
Match result probability Model pick: Al Ansar win
Tadamon Sour win
23.4%
Draw
25.4%
Al Ansar winPick
51.2%
At kickoff this becomes the match centre
Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.
Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · on the pitch, about an hour before kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect
Both teams to score
Yes43.9%
No56.1%
Total goals · 2.5
Over 2.550.4%
Under 2.549.6%
How much we know
Tadamon Sour history51 matches
Al Ansar history58 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news
Your call
Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.
Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score
Match result: ours Al Ansar
Over / under 2.5: ours Over
Both teams to score: ours No
Life of this match
One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.
- Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 2 h ahead2 Nov · 08:51 UTC
- Re-published 2 more timesThe numbers did not changeLatest 2 Nov · 20:35 UTC
- Lineups appearAbout an hour before kickoff, where the competition provides them. This prediction does not use lineups.≈ 10:15 UTC
- KickoffThis page becomes the match centre8 Nov · 11:15 UTC
- Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
- Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC
How reliable are picks like this?
Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 50–59% band (51.2%). Picks in that band won 55.8% of the time, and the model said 54.4% on average, over 3,719 matches.
Why Al Ansar are the pick
Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.
-
Al Ansar are rated 266 Elo points higher
Elo 1,691 against 1,425. On rating alone Al Ansar would be expected to take 82% of the points on offer.
-
Al Ansar score far more
0.76 goals a game over 51 matches for Tadamon Sour, against 2.21 over 58 for Al Ansar.
-
Al Ansar concede fewer
Tadamon Sour concede 1.63 a game, Al Ansar 0.72.
-
Al Ansar games more often go over 2.5 goals
43% of Tadamon Sour matches, against 52% for Al Ansar. The model puts this match at 50% for over 2.5.
These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.
Compare the two teams
Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.
Match history used: up to 3 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Al Ansar@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals 100
1425.1
ELO
1690.8
51
ELO · Matches
58
1425.1
Current Team ELO
1690.8
1690.8
Current Opponent ELO
1425.1
-265.7
Current ELO Difference
265.7
0.18
Expected score
0.82
51
History Matches
58
-0.10
Residual Mean
0.16
42.53
Overperformance
62.22
-0.04
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.19
Recent form16 signals 160
5
Matches
5
1.40
PPG
2.20
1.00
Goals for per game
1.60
1.20
Goals against per game
0.80
40.0%
Win rate
60.0%
10
Matches
10
1.10
PPG
2.40
0.80
Goals for per game
2.70
1.30
Goals against per game
0.80
30.0%
Win rate
70.0%
0.80
Recent 10 Goals Mean
2.70
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
1.62
1.30
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
0.80
1.27
Recent 10 Conceded Std
0.87
0.94
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.56
1.57
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
2.02
Overall performance9 signals 90
51
Matches
58
0.80
PPG
2.28
17.6%
Win rate
70.7%
27.5%
Draw rate
15.5%
54.9%
Loss rate
13.8%
66.7%
Over 1.5 rate
81.0%
43.1%
Over 2.5 rate
51.7%
27.5%
Over 3.5 rate
29.3%
1.75
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.85
Venue performance10 signals 100
16
Matches
28
1.00
PPG
2.32
18.8%
Win rate
71.4%
43.8%
Draw rate
17.9%
37.5%
Loss rate
10.7%
56.3%
Over 1.5 rate
75.0%
18.8%
Over 2.5 rate
50.0%
6.3%
Over 3.5 rate
25.0%
1.22
Goal difference · Standard deviation
1.96
16
History Matches
28
Scoring & attack16 signals 160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
0.76
Goals for per game
2.21
52.9%
Scoring rate
89.7%
37.3%
BTTS rate
44.8%
0.50
Goals for per game
2.29
50.0%
Scoring rate
85.7%
31.3%
BTTS rate
46.4%
51
History Matches
58
0.76
Goals Mean
2.21
0.94
Goals Std
1.56
52.9%
Scored 1+ rate
89.7%
13.7%
Scored 2+ rate
63.8%
7.8%
Scored 3+ rate
34.5%
0.50
Venue Goals Mean
2.29
Defense & conceding12 signals 120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.63
Goals against per game
0.72
64.7%
Conceding rate
51.7%
1.06
Goals against per game
0.61
56.3%
Conceding rate
53.6%
51
History Matches
58
1.63
Conceded Mean
0.72
1.55
Conceded Std
0.85
49.0%
Conceded 2+ rate
15.5%
31.4%
Conceded 3+ rate
5.2%
1.06
Venue Conceded Mean
0.61
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
48.3%
47.1%
Failed-to-score rate
10.3%
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
46.4%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
48.3%
47.1%
Failed-to-score rate
10.3%
43.8%
Clean-sheet rate
46.4%
50.0%
Failed-to-score rate
14.3%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
48.3%
Volatility & stability4 signals 40
51
History Matches
58
0.90
Result entropy
0.74
1.75
Goal Difference Std
1.85
9.87
Stability score
26.49
Halftime resilience7 signals 70
51
Eligible Matches
58
6
Lead Matches
30
50.0%
Lead Win Rate
93.3%
0.50
Lead Points Retention
0.96
19
Trailing Matches
5
5.3%
Non-loss rate
40.0%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
20.0%
Goal timing5 signals 50
51
Halftime Coverage Matches
58
0.29
First Half Goals For Mean
1.03
0.69
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.24
0.47
Second Half Goals For Mean
1.17
0.94
Second Half Goals Against Mean
0.48
Rest & schedule9 signals 90
101.9
Rest days
97.73
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
2
—
Short Rest Points Per Match
3.00
32
Normal Rest History Matches
39
0.78
Normal Rest Points Per Match
2.41
18
Long Rest History Matches
16
0.72
Long Rest Points Per Match
1.81
Competition & season17 signals 170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
3
Competition Season Count
4
2
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.14
Portability PPG Std
0.41
0.28
Portability PPG Range
0.88
78.13
Portability Score
54.73
Odds & market11 signals 110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal 10
51
Clean History Matches
58
Matchup differences86 signals 086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO-265.7
PPG-1.47
GF-1.44
GA0.90
PPG-1.32
PPG-0.80
PPG-1.30
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches-7
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Failed-to-score rate36.7%
History Matches-12
Clean-sheet rate-0.03
Failed-to-score rate35.7%
History Matches-7
Goals Mean-1.44
Goals Std-0.62
Scored 1+ rate-0.37
Scored 2+ rate-0.50
Scored 3+ rate-0.27
Venue Goals Mean-1.79
Recent 10 Goals Mean-1.90
Recent 10 Goals Std-0.74
History Matches-7
Conceded Mean0.90
Conceded Std0.70
Clean-sheet rate-0.13
Conceded 2+ rate33.5%
Conceded 3+ rate26.2%
Venue Conceded Mean0.46
Recent 10 Conceded Mean0.50
Recent 10 Conceded Std0.40
History Matches-7
Result entropy0.17
Goal Difference Std-0.10
Stability score-16.62
Recent 10 Result Entropy0.38
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.46
Eligible Matches-7
Lead Matches-24
Lead Win Rate-0.43
Lead Points Retention-0.46
Trailing Matches14
Non-loss rate-0.35
Trailing Win Rate-0.20
Halftime Coverage Matches-7
First Half Goals For Mean-0.74
First Half Goals Against Mean0.44
Second Half Goals For Mean-0.70
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.46
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count-1
Eligible Competition Season Count-1
Portability PPG Std-0.27
Portability PPG Range-0.60
Portability Score23.39
Rest days4.17
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches-2
Normal Rest History Matches-7
Normal Rest Points Per Match-1.63
Long Rest History Matches2
Long Rest Points Per Match-1.09
Current Team ELO-265.7
Current Opponent ELO265.7
Current ELO Difference-531.4
Expected score-0.64
History Matches-7
Residual Mean-0.27
Overperformance-19.69
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.23
Latest results, with our pick
Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.
Tadamon Sour
W
Tripoli SC1–2Tadamon Sour23 Oct · away
Pick: Tripoli SC 35% · missed W
Tadamon Sour4–1Al Akhaa Al Ahli17 Oct · home
Pick: Tadamon Sour 60% · hit D
Al Nejmeh3–3Tadamon Sour12 Oct · away
Pick: Al Nejmeh 59% · missed W
Shabab Al Sahel0–1Tadamon Sour8 Oct · away
Pick: Shabab Al Sahel 38% · missed Earlier results appear as match history is added
Al Ansar
D
Al Akhaa Al Ahli1–1Al Ansar31 Oct · away
Pick: Al Ansar 35% · missed L
Ahal2–1Al Ansar23 Oct · away
Pick: Al Ansar 47% · missed W
Paro1–2Al Ansar20 Oct · away
Pick: Al Ansar 53% · hit W
Al Ansar2–0Al Ittihad17 Oct · home
Pick: Al Ansar 56% · hit Earlier results appear as match history is added
About this match
Tadamon Sour and Al Ansar meet in Premier League on Sunday 8 November 2026, kickoff 11:15 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 2 Nov, 08:51 UTC: Tadamon Sour win 23.4%, draw 25.4%, Al Ansar win 51.2%. The pick is Al Ansar win. Over 2.5 goals: 50.4%. Both teams to score: 43.9%.
Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.