ScoreProb
Liga III - Serie 1 Romania Group 1 - 12 2026

Târgu Secuiesc vs USV Iaşi

Târgu Secuiesc Home · Elo 1,517
Sat 7 Nov
UTC
Not started
USV Iaşi Away · Elo 1,496
Venue to be confirmed Referee: to be announced Verified before kickoff · first published 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC
Match result probability Model pick: Târgu Secuiesc win
Târgu Secuiesc winPick
46.8%
Draw
21.9%
USV Iaşi win
31.3%

At kickoff this becomes the match centre

Same page, same address. This page updates by itself.

Live score · score and minute, updated by itself
Events · goals, cards, substitutions, VAR
Lineups · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Live stats · not available for this match, even after kickoff
Pick tracker · is our pre-match pick holding, and what did we expect

Both teams to score

Yes58.4%
No41.6%

Total goals · 2.5

Over 2.564.3%
Under 2.535.7%

How much we know

Târgu Secuiesc history39 matches
USV Iaşi history36 matches
Signals used362
Not includedTeam news

Your call

Make your own picks, then see how they compare with ours. Your calls stay in this browser.

Match result
Over / under 2.5
Both teams to score

Life of this match

One page from first prediction to settled result. Every step is time-stamped.

  1. Prediction publishedBefore kickoff, 6 d 3 h ahead
    1 Nov · 08:41 UTC
  2. Re-published 11 more timesThe numbers did not change
    Latest 4 Nov · 07:21 UTC
  3. KickoffThis page becomes the match centre
    7 Nov · 12:00 UTC
  4. Full timeResult and our verdict appear at once
  5. Added to the public recordSettled automatically, nightly at 03:17 UTC

How reliable are picks like this?

Across 15,112 settled matches since 24 Aug 2026, grouped by how confident the top pick was.

See the full record
How often the top pick won What the model said on average
33–39% Won 40.1% · said 37.7% · n 2,635
40–49% Won 45.4% · said 44.8% · n 6,162
50–59% Won 55.8% · said 54.4% · n 3,719
60–69% Won 63.6% · said 64.3% · n 1,851
70–79% Won 76.2% · said 73.9% · n 583
80%+ Won 83.3% · said 84.5% · n 162
This pick sits in the 40–49% band (46.8%). Picks in that band won 45.4% of the time, and the model said 44.8% on average, over 6,162 matches.

Why Târgu Secuiesc are the pick

Four things in the data that move the probabilities most. Real values for this match.

See all 362 signals

  • The Elo ratings are level

    Elo 1,517 against 1,496. On rating alone the teams are close to even.

  • Târgu Secuiesc score more

    1.72 goals a game over 39 matches for Târgu Secuiesc, against 1.22 over 36 for USV Iaşi.

  • Târgu Secuiesc concede fewer

    Târgu Secuiesc concede 1.59 a game, USV Iaşi 2.06.

  • Târgu Secuiesc games more often go over 2.5 goals

    67% of Târgu Secuiesc matches, against 56% for USV Iaşi. The model puts this match at 64% for over 2.5.

These are long-run records. The prediction does not include team news such as injuries, suspensions or the starting lineup.

Compare the two teams

Every signal the model reads for this match, side by side: 138 for each team and 86 gaps between them.

Match history used: up to 20 Aug 2026 Values come from each team's earlier matches. Bars compare the two sides of each signal.
Târgu Secuiesc
USV Iaşi@include('fixtures.partials.crest', ['team' => $away, 'size' => 'sm', 'lazy' => true])
ELO & ratings10 signals
100
1516.7
ELO
1496.1
39
ELO · Matches
36
1516.7
Current Team ELO
1496.1
1496.1
Current Opponent ELO
1516.7
20.58
Current ELO Difference
-20.58
0.53
Expected score
0.47
39
History Matches
36
0.01
Residual Mean
-0.01
50.70
Overperformance
49.43
-0.03
Recent 10 Residual Mean
0.12
Recent form16 signals
160
5
Matches
5
0.60
PPG
2.60
0.80
Goals for per game
1.40
1.80
Goals against per game
0.60
0.0%
Win rate
80.0%
10
Matches
10
0.90
PPG
1.50
1.20
Goals for per game
1.30
1.60
Goals against per game
1.80
10.0%
Win rate
40.0%
1.20
Recent 10 Goals Mean
1.30
0.87
Recent 10 Goals Std
0.64
1.60
Recent 10 Conceded Mean
1.80
1.11
Recent 10 Conceded Std
1.78
0.82
Recent 10 Result Entropy
0.99
1.43
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std
1.86
Overall performance9 signals
90
39
Matches
36
1.31
PPG
1.17
33.3%
Win rate
30.6%
30.8%
Draw rate
25.0%
35.9%
Loss rate
44.4%
87.2%
Over 1.5 rate
80.6%
66.7%
Over 2.5 rate
55.6%
48.7%
Over 3.5 rate
36.1%
2.27
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.05
Venue performance10 signals
100
17
Matches
19
1.71
PPG
0.89
47.1%
Win rate
26.3%
29.4%
Draw rate
10.5%
23.5%
Loss rate
63.2%
82.4%
Over 1.5 rate
84.2%
58.8%
Over 2.5 rate
57.9%
47.1%
Over 3.5 rate
47.4%
2.15
Goal difference · Standard deviation
2.23
17
History Matches
19
Scoring & attack16 signals
160
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals for per gameScoring rateBTTS rate
1.72
Goals for per game
1.22
79.5%
Scoring rate
77.8%
61.5%
BTTS rate
61.1%
2.18
Goals for per game
1.11
82.4%
Scoring rate
73.7%
58.8%
BTTS rate
57.9%
39
History Matches
36
1.72
Goals Mean
1.22
1.48
Goals Std
0.95
79.5%
Scored 1+ rate
77.8%
43.6%
Scored 2+ rate
33.3%
28.2%
Scored 3+ rate
8.3%
2.18
Venue Goals Mean
1.11
Defense & conceding12 signals
120
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Goals against per gameConceding rate
1.59
Goals against per game
2.06
74.4%
Conceding rate
80.6%
1.12
Goals against per game
2.63
64.7%
Conceding rate
84.2%
39
History Matches
36
1.59
Conceded Mean
2.06
1.33
Conceded Std
1.81
43.6%
Conceded 2+ rate
52.8%
30.8%
Conceded 3+ rate
30.6%
1.12
Venue Conceded Mean
2.63
Clean sheets & scoring failure11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Clean-sheet rateFailed-to-score rate
25.6%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
20.5%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
25.6%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
20.5%
Failed-to-score rate
22.2%
35.3%
Clean-sheet rate
15.8%
17.6%
Failed-to-score rate
26.3%
25.6%
Clean-sheet rate
19.4%
Volatility & stability4 signals
40
39
History Matches
36
1.00
Result entropy
0.97
2.27
Goal Difference Std
2.05
0.18
Stability score
2.67
Halftime resilience7 signals
70
21
Eligible Matches
22
4
Lead Matches
5
75.0%
Lead Win Rate
60.0%
0.83
Lead Points Retention
0.73
8
Trailing Matches
7
12.5%
Non-loss rate
42.9%
0.0%
Trailing Win Rate
14.3%
Goal timing5 signals
50
21
Halftime Coverage Matches
22
0.62
First Half Goals For Mean
0.55
0.76
First Half Goals Against Mean
0.64
0.81
Second Half Goals For Mean
0.64
1.19
Second Half Goals Against Mean
1.00
Rest & schedule9 signals
90
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Short Rest Points Per Match
93.90
Rest days
79.90
0
Matches Previous 7 Days
0
0
Matches Previous 14 Days
0
0
Short Rest History Matches
0
20
Normal Rest History Matches
15
1.30
Normal Rest Points Per Match
1.67
18
Long Rest History Matches
20
1.22
Long Rest Points Per Match
0.80
Competition & season17 signals
170
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin rateDraw rateLoss rateOver 1.5 rateOver 2.5 rateOver 3.5 rateGoal difference · Standard deviationCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference Mean
0
Matches
0
0
Current Competition Matches
0
6
Competition Season Count
5
4
Eligible Competition Season Count
3
0.59
Portability PPG Std
0.80
1.67
Portability PPG Range
1.95
45.74
Portability Score
38.42
Odds & market11 signals
110
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
Win ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower score
No
Available
No
0
Matches
0
Sample & availability1 signal
10
39
Clean History Matches
36
Matchup differences86 signals
086
No value for this match · The model could not compute these from the match history available for this fixture.
PPGWin ProbabilityDraw ProbabilityOpponent ProbabilityBookmakersActual · Win rateExpected · Win rateWin ResidualPoints ResidualPower scoreCurrent Competition PPGCurrent Competition Goal Difference MeanShort Rest Points Per Match
ELO20.58
PPG0.14
GF0.50
GA-0.47
PPG0.81
PPG-2.00
PPG-0.60
AvailableNo
Matches0
Clean History Matches3
Clean-sheet rate6.2%
Failed-to-score rate-0.02
History Matches-2
Clean-sheet rate19.5%
Failed-to-score rate-0.09
History Matches3
Goals Mean0.50
Goals Std0.54
Scored 1+ rate1.7%
Scored 2+ rate10.3%
Scored 3+ rate19.9%
Venue Goals Mean1.07
Recent 10 Goals Mean-0.10
Recent 10 Goals Std0.23
History Matches3
Conceded Mean-0.47
Conceded Std-0.48
Clean-sheet rate6.2%
Conceded 2+ rate-0.09
Conceded 3+ rate0.2%
Venue Conceded Mean-1.51
Recent 10 Conceded Mean-0.20
Recent 10 Conceded Std-0.66
History Matches3
Result entropy0.02
Goal Difference Std0.22
Stability score-2.49
Recent 10 Result Entropy-0.17
Recent 10 Goal Difference Std-0.43
Eligible Matches-1
Lead Matches-1
Lead Win Rate15.0%
Lead Points Retention0.10
Trailing Matches1
Non-loss rate-0.30
Trailing Win Rate-0.14
Halftime Coverage Matches-1
First Half Goals For Mean0.07
First Half Goals Against Mean0.13
Second Half Goals For Mean0.17
Second Half Goals Against Mean0.19
Current Competition Matches0
Competition Season Count1
Eligible Competition Season Count1
Portability PPG Std-0.21
Portability PPG Range-0.29
Portability Score7.31
Rest days14.00
Matches Previous 7 Days0
Matches Previous 14 Days0
Short Rest History Matches0
Normal Rest History Matches5
Normal Rest Points Per Match-0.37
Long Rest History Matches-2
Long Rest Points Per Match0.42
Current Team ELO20.58
Current Opponent ELO-20.58
Current ELO Difference41.16
Expected score0.06
History Matches3
Residual Mean0.02
Overperformance1.27
Recent 10 Residual Mean-0.15

Latest results, with our pick

Every result shows what we predicted before the match. Misses are shown as clearly as hits.

Târgu Secuiesc

D
Târgu Secuiesc2–2Viitorul Onesti31 Oct · home
Pick: Târgu Secuiesc 55% · missed
W
Ceahlăul Piatra Neamţ0–2Târgu Secuiesc24 Oct · away
Pick: Târgu Secuiesc 44% · hit
W
Paşcani1–2Târgu Secuiesc16 Oct · away
Pick: Târgu Secuiesc 48% · hit
Earlier results appear as match history is added

USV Iaşi

D
Paşcani1–1USV Iaşi30 Oct · away
Pick: USV Iaşi 54% · missed
D
USV Iaşi3–3Aerostar Bacau24 Oct · home
Pick: USV Iaşi 52% · missed
D
Odorheiu Secuiesc2–2USV Iaşi16 Oct · away
Pick: Odorheiu Secuiesc 41% · missed
Earlier results appear as match history is added

About this match

Târgu Secuiesc and USV Iaşi meet in Liga III - Serie 1 on Saturday 7 November 2026, kickoff 12:00 UTC. ScoreProb published its prediction on 1 Nov, 08:41 UTC: Târgu Secuiesc win 46.8%, draw 21.9%, USV Iaşi win 31.3%. The pick is Târgu Secuiesc win. Over 2.5 goals: 64.3%. Both teams to score: 58.4%.

Predictions come from a statistical model that reads 362 signals about both teams, and are published before kickoff. Each one is graded automatically from the final score, and misses stay on the record. They are probabilities, not guarantees.